MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip towards 73,400 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 74,500 level - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
Metal’s Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to dip towards the 10 day EMA at $2411 amid strong dollar and rise in US treasury yields. However, sharp fall in prices would be cushioned as moderation in the inflation numbers and crack in the labor market, bolstered hopes that US Fed would start cutting rates as soon as September • Spot gold prices would slip towards $2411 as long as it stays below $2450. Strong call base at 2450 strike would act as key resistance. Similarly, strong put base near the 2400 strike would act as good support.
* MCX Gold Aug is expected to slip towards 73,400 level (10-Day EMA) as long as it stays below 74,500 level. A break below 73,400 it would slip towards 73,000.
* MCX Silver September is hovering near the key support at 91,300(20 DEMA), a move below would weaken the metal towards 90,200.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are likely to remain under pressure amid lack of impetus from China. Lack of policy support towards Chinese economy would weigh on the metal. Further, weak economic growth numbers and lower imports of refined copper by China indicates weaker physical demand. Moreover, constant rise in inventory levels in LME indicates sluggish demand growth.
* MCX Copper July is expected to dip towards the key support near 820, as long as it trades below 836. Breakdown of 100 day EMA at 830, indicates weakness in the price trend.
* Aluminum is expected to face the hurdle near 227 and move lower towards 221.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trim its earlier gains and move lower towards the $80 mark amid mixed economic signal and strong dollar. Further, lack of concrete stimulus measure from top oil importer China would also weigh on oil prices. Additionally, higher inflation numbers in Japan in June, has opened the doors for a rate hike which might also check the gains in oil prices. On the other hand, tension in the Middle East and growing bets of rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve would limit its downside. Further, strong put base near 80 strike indicates strong support.
* MCX Crude oil August is likely to move towards the 50 day EMA support at 6710, which could act as good support for prices. Bullish cross over of 20 and 50 DEMA, along with reversal in the RSI would support the prices to regain its strength.
* MCX Natural gas July is likely hold the support near 170 and rebound towards 180. Above 180 it would rise towards 186.
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