MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support of 10 day EMA at 72,100 and move towards 72,800 - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
Metal’s Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to find support at $2350 and move towards $2385 on expectation that the US Federal Reserve might cut the rate in September following soft US employment data last week. The probability of rate cut in September has went up to 77% after last week’s job numbers. Meanwhile, focus will remain on comments from the Fed members and US inflation numbers this week, as it could bring further clarity in timing of first interest rate cut.
* MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support of 10 day EMA at 72,100 and move towards 72,800. Above 72800 it would open the doors towards 73,200.
* MCX Silver September is expected to hold the support near the breakout level at 91,800 and rise towards 93,800. Only below 91,800 it would turn weak and slide towards 90,500.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to regain its strength amid hopes over policy support from China. Further, increasing prospects of September rate cut would also strengthen the bullish bets in the metal. Again, rise in premium on imported copper for the first time in two months would also strengthen the bullish outlook in the metal.
* MCX Copper July is expected to hold the support near 5-day EMA at 866 and move towards 878. Above 878, it would rally towards 884 mark. Bullish cross over of 5 and 10 day EMA along with reversal in RSI would support the red metal to hold its ground.
* Aluminum is expected to rise towards 235, as long as it holds above the 20-day EMA at 231. However, rising inventory levels in LME and increased production from China would check its upside.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to face the hurdle near $84 and move lower towards $81 amid easing supply concerns. Further, hopes of ceasefire deal in Gaza could reduce worries about global crude oil supply disruption. On the other hand increasing bets of rate cut in September by the Federal Reserve would limit the downside. Along with that expectation of more stimulus from China would also provide support to oil prices to hold above the $81 mark. While, $85 mark would act as major hurdle for price as highest OI concentration at 85 strike call would act as good supply zone
* MCX Crude oil July is likely to dip towards the 20 day EMA support at 6800, as long as it trades under 6960. Only close below 6800 it would turn weaker.
* MCX Natural gas July is likely to regain its strength and move higher towards 208, as long as it holds above the 192 mark.
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