MCX Gold April is expected to hold support near Rs.154,000 and bounce towards Rs.158,000 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to hold its ground near $4950 and bounce back towards $5150 amid safe haven buying. A deepening US-Iran conflict is expected to bolster bullion prices, sparking a recovery from three-week lows. Meanwhile, all focus will remain on today’s Fed’s policy where central bank is most likely to keep rates unchanged. Whereas investor will eye on central banks forward guidance and the timing of next US Fed rate cut. Further, rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns causing scaling back the probability of early rate cuts.
* MCX Gold April is expected to hold support near Rs.154,000 and bounce towards Rs.158,000. Only a move below Rs.154,000, it would turn weaker towards Rs.152,000.
* International Spot silver is likely to move in the band of $77 and $84. MCX Silver May is expected to move between Rs.248,000 and Rs.263,000. Only a move above Rs.263,000 it would rise towards Rs.270,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to face hurdle and remain under pressure amid softening Chinese demand and rising global inventory levels in major exchanges. LME copper inventory jumped by nearly 19,000 tons to 330,375 tons highest level since September 2019. A rapid buildup of exchange stockpiles since the start of the year reflects a growing bearish mood in the physical market for copper. Further, ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties would also hurt demand outlook. Moreover, fall in the Yangshan copper premium likely to weigh on prices.
* In the near term MCX Copper March is projected to move towards Rs.1160 as long as it trades under Rs.1190
* MCX Aluminum March is expected to hold above Rs.338 and rise towards Rs.348 level. Prices are expected to regain its strength due to supply disruption from the Middle east region.
* MCX Zinc March is likely to face hurdle near Rs.324 level and move lower towards Rs.315 level.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX crude oil is expected to remain volatile amid ongoing conflict between US and Iran. Prices would get support amid effective closure of the strait and continued attacks on ports which has forced most of the Middle east nations to shutdown its oil production temporarily. Meanwhile, resumption of oil supply from Turkey’s Ceyhan energy hub could ease supply concerns. In addition to this, US military’s operation on Iranian coastal positions near the Strait of Hormuz have raised hopes of oil supplies. For the day, investors will eye on weekly inventory data to get more cues. NYMEX crude is likely to move in a broader range of $91 and $98.
* MCX Crude oil April is likely to move in a broader range of Rs.8500 and Rs.9200. Only a move below Rs.8500 it would slip towards Rs.8200.
* MCX Natural gas March future is expected to dip towards Rs.274-275 zone as long as it trades under Rs.290. Rising US gas output and waning winter demand would hurt gas prices
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