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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to face the hurdle near $2530 and move lower towards $2490 amid firm dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Further, recent US inflation data prompted market to scale back expectations of 50bps rate cut by US Fed in upcoming meeting. Meanwhile, increasing bets of 50 bps interest rate cut by ECB would support the bullions to hold its ground above $2490. Moreover, focus will remain on US PPI data which could provide more clarity on the quantum of rate cuts this year.

• MCX Gold Oct is expected to face the resistance of higher band of the consolidation range 71,200 - 72,300 and move towards 71,200. Only a move above 72,300 would open the doors towards 72,800.

• Spot silver is expected to hold the support at $28 and rise towards $29.10. MCX Silver December is expected to move higher towards 85,500, as long as it holds the key support at 83,000.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to hold its ground and move north amid signs of improving demand from China. Recent growth in export numbers and expectation of loan growth in last month would support the metals to hold firm. Additional rise in Yangshan copper premium to one-month high indicates improving demand in China. Meanwhile increasing inventory levels in LME and strong dollar would limit its upside. Today’s focus will remain on US PPI data which would bring more clarity on the quantum of rate cut this year.

• MCX Copper September is expected to hold the support at 785 and move towards the key resistance at 800. Only move above 800 it would open the doors towards 810.

• MCX Aluminum is expected to rise towards 226, as long as it holds above 219. Formation of bullish engulfing pattern would support the metal to trade higher.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to remain under pressure amid demand concerns. Fall in gasoline demand in US to its lowest levels since May with refinery runs also declining indicates slowdown in demand. Further downward revision to OPEC+’s demand growth in 2024 and 2025 would hurt prices. Meanwhile, closure of 39% of crude oil production in US Gulf of Mexico due to the hurricane Francine could provide some support to prices. On the upside $69 would act as major resistance for price. Similarly $65 would act as strong support for prices. Meanwhile, closure of OTM and ATM call strike indicates upside in the oil price. Further, addition of OI in the put strike would also support it to hold above $65.

• MCX Crude oil Sep is likely to face the hurdle near 5780 and weaken further towards 5500. Only close below 5500 it would test 5400.

• MCX Natural gas September is likely to rise towards 200 mark as long as it holds above 185. Halt in US gas production would provide support

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