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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is likely to hold the support near $2340 and move towards $2384 level amid increasing prospects of rate cut from major central banks. Recent economic numbers from US suggests sluggish growth in the 2 nd quarter, which could force the Federal Reserve to lower the rates in September. The rate cut probability in September has remained above 64%. Further, forecast of weaker home sales numbers and manufacturing PMI numbers could weigh on the dollar and support the bullions to trade higher. Additionally, closure of OTM Calls indicates upside in the yellow metal.

* MCX Gold Aug price is likely to trade higher towards 73,000, as long as it holds above 72,000. A move above 73,000 it would rise towards 73,500.

* MCX Silver July is expected to move higher towards 93,200, as long as it holds above 90,000.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid hopes of improved demand from China and supply issues. Further, increasing prospects of more stimulus from China to support the struggling property sector would support the metal to regain its strength. Additionally, an increase in orders from the copper fabricators last week indicated a sign of demand recovery in the metal. Meanwhile, focus will remain on the key manufacturing activity numbers from Europe and US which would give further clarity on the demand growth in the metals.

* MCX Copper is expected to hold the support near 855 and move back towards 870. Above, 870 prices may rally towards 876 mark

* Aluminum is expected to hold the support near 230 and move higher towards 236. Only close below 230 it would turn weaker towards 228.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to hold its ground above the $80 and move towards the $83 mark amid improved risk sentiments. Further, higher demand of gasoline and refinery runs in US would help the oil prices to stick to its gains. Additionally, growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East would add risk premium to oil price. Further, growing prospects of lower interest rate from major central banks in this year would favor the bullish outlook. Meanwhile, higher OI concentration at OTM call strikes indicates price may face stiff resistance.

* MCX Crude oil July is likely to move higher towards 6900 level as long as it stays above 6700 mark.

* MCX Natural gas July is expected to weaken further towards 230, as long as it trades under the 246 mark. Increasing production and higher inventories is likely to counter the demand from the electricity providers.

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