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Nifty Outlook

Though we certainly did not expect a vertical bounce back, we did go in last Friday expecting a consolidation rather than outright break down, given the support offered by the 200 day SMA near 24050, as well as fibo support near 23950-870. Even as Nifty closed in the red on Friday, with weekend uncertainty looming, 62% of its constituents bounced atleast 1% from their respective lows, suggesting that most of the damage was limited to the downside gapped opening. This is contrary to usual bear moves, where a dead cat bounce is usually followed by a powerful plunge. That another wave of downside did not unfold on Friday, is an indication towards resilience, or that good deal of certainty has been priced in already. This sets up for a bounce with least objective of 24260 and an optimistic objective of 24770-850. However, should we fail to see past 24590, or if 24150 fail to hold after an upswing, expect resumption of downtrend aiming 23670-460.

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