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Nifty Outlook

Though we have had 24130 as the likely upside objective for several weeks now, we have been very sceptical about upsides all through this week for fears of mean reversion moves. But supports consistently held, as did 23800 yesterday, to swing prices higher from initial dips. We start today with Nifty more than 3.4% above the 20 day SMA, that farthest it has been this year. This suggests that while momentum favours upsides, the risk reward doesn't, prompting us to see upsides capped today, with an exhaustion potential spotted in the 24130-230 region. That said, 23830 is expected to be pivotal as it did in the last two days.

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