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ASIA

Asian shares opened lower as the White House moved forward with extensive tariffs on trading partners, including a 104% levy on China, dampening investor risk appetite. US Treasury yields continued to rise. Gift Nifty indicates a gap-down opening for Indian markets.

US & EUROPE

U.S. stocks fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on Tuesday following Trump's tariff announcement last week, with the S&P 500 closing below 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year. The index is now 18.9% down from its recent high on February 19, nearing the 20% decline that signifies a bear market. European shares rebounded from 14-month lows on Tuesday after four days of heavy selling, though investors remained vigilant as countries reacted to the extensive U.S. tariffs.

COMMODITIES

Oil prices fell by more than a dollar yesterday as investors factored in the growing likelihood of a recession due to the intensifying trade war between the US and China. Gold trimmed its earlier gains on Tuesday as US Treasury yields increased, although a weaker dollar and escalating trade tensions between the world's two largest economies supported prices.

Nifty Outlook

Our reasoning behind lining up 22660 as the upper band yesterday, which Nifty eventually tested before pausing, was that it appeared too early to fill the Monday gap. It still can, and we will wait for a push beyond 22660 for the same, but until then, a pull back and consolidation near 22300 is most likely, followed by renewed attempts to swing higher again. Alternatively, slippage below 22160 could escalate volatility expectations again, but we see low odds of the same.

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