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Below the Market Commentary (closing) for 29th December 2025 by Bajaj Broking

Market Closing Commentary

Indian benchmark indices came under steady selling pressure on 29 December, ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry. Ongoing selling by foreign institutional investors and a weaker rupee weighed on market sentiment. Traders also remained cautious due to the Nifty index rebalancing scheduled for 30 December, which led to higher intraday volatility and added pressure on the markets. At Close, The Sensex declined 346 points, or 0.41%, to close at 84,695, while the Nifty slipped 100 points, or 0.38%, to end at 25,942. On the sectoral front, Nifty Media, FMCG and PSU Banks offered limited support. However, most sectors faced selling pressure, with Consumer Durables, IT, Healthcare and Realty stocks ending as the top laggards.The broader market also remained weak, as the Nifty Midcap index fell 0.52% and the Nifty Small-cap index dropped 0.72%, pointing to widespread selling across the market.

Nifty Outlook

The index formed a large bearish candlestick, marked by a lower high and a lower low, indicating continuation of profit booking after the recent up-move, especially ahead of the F&O monthly expiry. As anticipated, the index is currently consolidating within a range, driven largely by stock-specific activity. Over the coming week, the index is likely to extend the consolidation seen over the past four weeks, broadly within the 25,700–26,300 zone.

A decisive breakout or breakdown from this range will set the tone for the next directional move. A sustained move above 26,300 could trigger further upside, with potential targets around 26,500 in the coming weeks. On the hourly chart, the RSI has moved to oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback from key support levels. Immediate support is placed in the 25,700–25,800 range, which coincides with the current month’s lows, the 50-day EMA, and a key retracement level of the prior up-move. Holding above this support band would keep the near-term outlook neutral to mildly positive.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The index formed a bearish candlestick with a lower high and a lower low, reflecting continued profit booking for the fourth consecutive session. Going ahead, the index is expected to remain in a consolidation phase and build a base within the 58,500–60,100 range over the coming weeks. A decisive move above the last two weeks’ high of 59,500 could pave the way for a fresh upside toward the recent all-time high near 60,100 in the weeks ahead. The sharp rally over the past two months remains well-contained within an upward price channel, highlighting sustained demand even at higher levels. On the downside, strong support is placed in the 58,300–58,600 zone, which coincides with the 50-day EMA and the previous breakout region. Holding above this support band would keep the broader trend constructive.

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