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Market Closing Commentary

Benchmark indices closed higher on Friday's session despite trimming a significant portion of their intraday gains, as persistent weakness in the Indian Rupee weighed on investor sentiment in the latter half of the session.

USDINR surged to a fresh all-time high of 93.71. Over the past 4 weeks, the US Dollar–Indian Rupee pair has appreciated by 2.75%, while on a 12-month basis it has risen 8.75%, indicating sustained pressure on the domestic currency.

At close, the Sensex was up 325.72 points or 0.44 percent at 74,532.96, and the Nifty was up 112.35 points or 0.49 percent at 23,114.50.

Sectorally, market breadth remained positive with most indices ending in the green. Telecom, IT, metals, pharma, and PSU Bank stocks led the gains, rising 1–2%, while media, private bank, and realty were the only sectors that ended in the red.

The Nifty midcap index rose 0.6%, indicating continued participation in the broader market, while the small cap index ended flat, reflecting relatively muted activity.

Nifty Outlook                            

 Nifty on the weekly chart formed a Doji candle with long upper shadows highlighting intraweek volatility. Long upper shadow signals strong selling pressure at higher levels.

Technically, the index continues to show a bearish bias in both the short and medium term, as it is forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Immediate support is placed around the previous week’s low of 23,000–22,900.

A move below last week low could lead to further downside, with the index potentially declining toward the major support area of 22,700–22,400.

On the higher side, the last week’s high of 23,862 is expected to act as immediate resistance sustaining below the same will keep the immediate bias down

Bank nifty Outlook

The index on the weekly chart has formed a high-wave candle with a lower high and lower low, signaling continuation of the corrective decline.

Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, driven by uncertain global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on market sentiment.

A sustained move below Thursday’s low of 53,240 could trigger further downside, with potential targets at 52,500 and 51,800 in the coming sessions. These levels correspond to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the January 2025 lows and coincide with the low of the breakout candle formed in April 2025.

On the upside, the Thursday gap zone between 54,689 and 54,150 is expected to act as immediate resistance. The overall bias remains bearish as long as the index stays below this zone.

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