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Market Closing Commentary

Indian benchmark indices witnessed profit booking during the second half of the session amid escalating geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to reduce overnight risk exposure. Volatility remained elevated throughout the day, with sharp intraday swings driven by the weekly Sensex expiry. This cautious sentiment prevailed despite crude oil prices remaining near a three-month low around the $92 per barrel mark, which otherwise provided some support to overall market sentiment. The Nifty 50 declined by 53.35 points (-0.23%) to close at 23,161.60, while the Sensex fell 150.63 points (-0.20%) to settle at 73,832.55.

On the sectoral front, Information Technology and Consumer Durables emerged as the key laggards, witnessing broad-based selling pressure throughout the session. On the positive side, Media and Private Banking stocks provided support to the market, while Healthcare and Pharmaceutical counters also ended with modest gains, reflecting a defensive bias among investors. Market breadth remained weak as selling pressure extended to the broader markets. The Nifty Midcap 100 index declined 0.81% to close at 59,325, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index ended 0.67% lower at 17,702, indicating relatively sharper profit booking beyond the frontline indices.

Nifty Outlook

Index in the daily chart formed an inverted hammer like candle with a small real body and a long upper shadow. Highlighting, pullback after a gap down opening, but index failed to sustain at higher levels and gave up most of its intraday pullback to close the session near the open of the session. Nifty on expected lines continues to consolidate in the broad range of 23,000-23,550. We expect the current consolidation to extend until a directional breakout emerges.

In the last 2 weeks Nifty has rebounded on multiple occasion from the key support area of 23,000-23,200 being the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601) and lower band of the falling channel. Within the consolidation index has immediate hurdle at Thursday low of 23,327, a move above that will open upside towards key resistance of 23,500-23,550 levels being the 61.8% retracement of the previous decline (24089-23070) and the 20 days EMA.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Index formed a small bullish candle with a higher high and a lower low signaling consolidation amid stock specific action. The index continues to sustain above its 20-day EMA and the recent trendline breakout area, suggesting that the broader trend remains constructive.

Bank Nifty in the last two sessions witnessed profit booking from the neckline of the double bottom breakout area of 55,500-55,600. A decisive move above this level would confirm renewed buying momentum and open the path towards 56,500 levels in the coming weeks. Failure to do so will lead to some consolidation in the range of 53,800-55,600. On the downside, immediate support is positioned at 54,000–53,800 being the low of the current week and key retracement of the recent pullback.

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