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Below the Market Commentary (closing) for 01st October 2026 by Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking

Market Closing Commentary

Benchmark indices witnessed a sharp sell-off followed by a minor recovery, with the market extending its losing streak to the eighth consecutive week. Market breadth deteriorated further, while India VIX spiked, reflecting heightened volatility. IT was the only sector to remain resilient, while elevated US 10-year Treasury yields and Brent crude oil prices above $100 remained key risks for investor sentiment.

The Nifty 50 declined 0.88% to close at 22,421, while the Sensex fell 0.79% to 71,909.

On the sectoral front, IT remained the key gainer, while Auto, Metal, FMCG and Realty were among the major laggards.

The broader market also witnessed significant selling pressure, with the Nifty Midcap 100 declining 1.01% to 58,732 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 falling 0.97% to 19,058.

Nifty Outlook

Nifty formed a sizable bearish candle with a long lower shadow highlighting intraday volatility. The index maintained lower high and a lower low signaling continuation of the downward bias. Nifty opened on a negative note and dragged sharply lower in the first half of the trade to form an intraday low of 22,217. Index recovered some of the intraday decline in the last hour to close at 22421.95. The index in the process extended its losing streak for the eighth consecutive week.

Immediate bias in the index continues to remain down and a follow through weakness will signal extension of decline towards the 22,000 and CY2025 low of 21743.

A move above Thursday’s high of 22,610 will signal a pullback towards the 22,800 and 23,000 levels. However, for a meaningful trend reversal index would require forming a sustained Higher High–Higher Low structure and reclaim the 23,000-23,100 level. Failure to move above 22,610 will lead to some consolidation in the range of 22,600-22,200 levels.

 

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty formed a high wave candle with a small real body and long shadows in either direction highlighting intraday volatility. Bank Nifty relatively outperformed and closed the session marginally lower by 0.3% .

Going ahead, a follow through pullback above Wednesday and Thursday’s high 55,135 will signal extension of the pullback towards 55,600 and 56,000 levels in the coming sessions being the recent breakdown area.

Failure to move above Thursday’s high will signal some consolidation in the range of 53,500-55,100 levels in the coming sessions ahead of the RBI monetary policy outcome during next week.

Index has key short-term support at 53,500-53,000 being the confluence of the previous major lows and measuring implication of the recent range breakdown (58,500-56,000).

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