IGI Logo

In this report, we highlight high-frequency data points to assess freight and cargo movements across various modes of transportation. In Jul-26, Indian port volumes continued to recover (+6% yoy vs YTD 4% yoy) as major port volumes grew 9% yoy, while non-major port volumes registered 2% yoy increase. On the domestic front, GST e-way bill volumes grew 6% yoy (+2% mom) despite a slowdown in manufacturing activity (PMI down 91bps yoy) following renewed tensions due to the West Asia conflict, while truck freight rates have grown over the last 2 months (+5% yoy in Jul-26) as fuel prices remain elevated. On the global front, freight cost inflation is likely to persist as global shipping rates have nearly doubled since Mar-26 (+90%) and are likely to remain elevated in the near term

Port volumes remain healthy with partial reopening of trade routes

India’s port sector registered 6% yoy growth in Jul-26, with both major port cargo (+9%) and non-major cargo volumes (+2%) increasing. The recovery in volumes was driven by improving trade volumes following the partial reopening of trade routes in neighboring Middle East (ME) countries such as Oman. Overall trade (excluding POL) was up 16% yoy, with exports/imports growing 14%/17% yoy. For major ports, volume growth was broad based across commodities, led by iron ore (+35% yoy), coal (+17% yoy), and POL (+10% yoy), partially offset by flattish container volumes. JNPT (+41% yoy), Vizag (+14%), NMPT (+16%), and Ennore (+11%) witnessed robust volume growth in Jul-26, while Chennai/Tuticorin/Mormugao ports recorded 6%/2%/9% yoy decline in volumes. Non-major ports saw 2% yoy increase in volumes. Container volumes remained flat yoy, with 11%/43% growth at JNPT/Kandla offset by declines in Chennai/Vizag/Tuticorin (- 13%/-23%/-4%). Adani Ports (BUY) reported overall volume growth of 15% yoy during YTD FY27 (ending Jul-26), with container volumes growing 15% during the same period (1QFY27 container growth: +18% yoy).

Container shipping rates rise sharply amid renewed West Asia tension

According to the Drewry WCI Index, container shipping rates have nearly doubled since Mar-26 (+90%), as the geopolitical outlook remains volatile amid renewed tensions due to the West Asia crisis. The US and Iran signed an MoU, formally ending hostilities and lifting Strait of Hormuz (SoH) restrictions. However, a substantial portion of the global fleet remains diverted/stranded at the SoH, as rerouting decisions and capacity realignment will take time to unwind. Container shipping rates are therefore likely to remain inflationary until full normalcy is restored.

GST e-way bill volumes resilient despite slowdown in manufacturing activity

GST e-way bill volumes expanded 6% yoy in Jul-26 (+2% mom), as robust domestic consumption was partially offset by a slowdown in manufacturing amid renewed tensions around the West Asia crisis (PMI declined to a 5Y low of 53.5 in Jul-26). Inter-state volumes grew 4% yoy (+4% mom), while intra-state volumes grew 7% yoy (+1% yoy). The uptick in commodity production volumes points to favorable demand tailwinds for port operators and logistics companies, as higher production typically translates into increased freight and cargo handling opportunities. Truck freight rates grew 5% yoy across major trunk routes, with rates rising consistently (in-line with fuel price hikes).

For More  Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd Disclaimer http://www.emkayglobal.com/Uploads/disclaimer.pdf & SEBI Registration number is INH000000354