Cement Sector Update : Cement prices holding till now, but macros worsening by Prabhudas Lilladher Capital
We interacted with cement dealers across regions in India to assess demand and pricing trends in Aug'26. Our discussions indicate that demand remained mixed during the month, with North and Central markets witnessing moderation due to monsoon and labor shortages, while Mumbai remained resilient amid limited rainfall. East remained subdued, with Patna reporting steady demand, but Kolkata continuing to face weak construction activity. While South remained mixed with healthy demand in Chennai but continued weakness in Hyderabad. Cement prices remained largely stable across most markets, with a selective correction in Bhopal and some increase in Patna, while companies have started discussing price hikes for Sep in select markets. However, dealers remain cautious on the quantum and sustainability of these increases given the prevailing weak demand environment.
Q2 remains a seasonally weak quarter for the cement industry, and the ongoing Middle East crisis has kept P&F, freight and other operating costs elevated, increasing uncertainty around margins for H2FY27. While cement prices holding up during Aug, the peak monsoon month, is encouraging, but alarmingly lower rainfall across southern states, Rajasthan and half of MH/GJ this year doesn’t augur well for FY28 demand. A price hike in Sep’26 would provide some relief; however, in its absence, continued cost pressures are likely to weigh on margins in Q3. Hence, the sustainability of current price levels and the industry’s ability to implement further hikes will remain key monitorables going ahead. We believe this is a good time to accumulate selective companies having diversified market presence, better cost management and muted valuations. Top picks: UTCEM, JKCE & NUVOCO
Northern region
Cement prices in Delhi remained unchanged MoM at INR345-350/bag. Demand declined sequentially, impacted by the monsoon and labor shortages around Raksha Bandhan and Janmashtami. Dealers believe a price hike in Sep is unlikely, with no clarity on any potential increase so far.
Cement prices in Jaipur remained unchanged MoM at INR320-330/bag. Demand declined sequentially due to the monsoon and labor shortages, after remaining relatively healthy in the previous month. No price hike has been announced so far. Dealers expect demand to improve next month, which could provide room for a price increase.
Eastern region
Patna: Prices in Aug were largely flat compared with Jul. There was some increase in billing prices for both UTCEM and SRCM. Although a INR20/bag hike has been announced, dealers expect only ~INR10/bag to be sustained. Demand remained steady during the month. As per dealers, SRCM is witnessing some market share loss as its Aurangabad plant has been down with machine failure since Jul, which led to volume constraints.
A price hike is expected in Kolkata, although no formal announcement has been made yet and the quantum remains uncertain. Dealers remain skeptical about the sustainability of any increase given weak demand. Some recovery is expected in Sep; however, dealers believe prices need to remain stable to support the anticipated improvement in demand. Oct is expected to remain muted due to Durga Puja, with full recovery in demand and any meaningful price hikes likely only thereafter.
Western region
No major price hike is expected in Ahmedabad. Demand remains moderate, while prices were largely flat MoM in Aug. Demand is expected to remain subdued until Diwali, with limited scope for meaningful price increases during this period.
Cement prices in Mumbai remained unchanged MoM. Demand remained decent and broadly similar to the previous month, supported by limited rainfall so far. Dealers indicated that ~INR10/bag price hike could be attempted in Sep, although there is no formal communication yet.
Southern region
A price hike of INR30/bag has been announced effective 1 st Sep in Chennai; however, dealers expect the effective increase to be limited to INR15-20/bag. Demand remains healthy. Increasing bulk sales through trucks are limiting the scope for price hikes in the bag segment.
Demand remains weak, with prices largely unchanged in Hyderabad. The absence of major real estate developments and a generally subdued market are limiting pricing power. Cement companies typically announce price hikes at the beginning of the month, but these have largely failed to sustain. While a INR20/bag hike is possible, dealers expect hike of only ~INR10/bag to be sustainable
Central region
Cement prices in Lucknow remained broadly stable MoM. Demand was decent but moderated slightly from the previous month as rainfall increased. Dealers indicated that companies are discussing a potential price hike in Sep, though its implementation and sustainability will depend on demand conditions.
Cement prices remained flattish in Bhopal too. Demand remained sluggish due to heavy rainfall and labor shortages around Raksha Bandhan and Janmashtami, resulting in lower sales and increased discounts. Dealers have not heard of any potential price hike, including for Sep. UTCEM is pushing volumes aggressively, with lower prices reflecting higher sales. ACC continues to report healthy sales, despite higher prices, while DALBHARA is expanding its manpower and dealer network.
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