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We expect divergence in topline and operating performance for our logistics and ports coverage companies, as macro challenges (escalation in fuel prices, hike in minimum wages, and other inflationary pressures) weigh on margins despite recovery in volume trajectory. For logistics companies, sustained competitive intensity would result in only a mid-to-high single-digit growth in revenue, exDelhivery. For ports, recovery in port volumes post ME crisis in May-26 aided by growth in non-port revenues should result in healthy mid-teens topline growth. We forecast APSEZ/JSW Infra’s revenue to grow 16%/17% yoy, while margins are likely to contract by ~350/265bps, respectively. For Delhivery, we expect revenues to grow 27% yoy, with broad-based volume growth across B2C and PTL segments, aided by the pause in insourcing and sustained e-commerce tailwinds. We believe competitive intensity in the B2B industry should keep revenue growth subdued for other surface LSPs in our coverage (TCIE, VRLL), while margins would contract qoq for all logistics players amid rising cost pressures. Management commentary around mitigating rising costs (fuel and wages) and its impact on profitability would remain a key monitorable

Adani Ports (BUY; TP: Rs2,000)

We anticipate 16% yoy revenue growth, underpinned by 12%/47%/45% yoy growth in domestic ports/international ports/marine segments, while logistics should see a subdued quarter as route rationalization (rail), higher cost pressures (trucking), and higher freight rates (IFN) weigh on growth trajectory. Robust volume performance (15% yoy volume growth as per Jun-26 company update) in the ports segment should ring in the cheer. EBITDA margin is likely to contract by 352bps yoy to 56.7%, given higher contribution from lower-margin non-ports and international businesses. We await management commentary on updates for planned expansion in Mundra, Dhamra, Hazira, and Vizhinjam. We keep our FY27/FY28 revenue/EBITDA estimates largely unchanged. We retain BUY and SOTP-based TP of Rs2,000 (implying 15x Jun-28E EV/EBITDA)

JSW Infra (ADD; TP increased by 8% to Rs350)

We expect 17% yoy revenue growth, driven by port/logistics revenue growing 8%/82% yoy, respectively. Port volumes are expected to remain subdued with a 5% yoy increase, primarily due to the West Asia conflict impacting overall trade and complete closure of the Fujairah liquid terminal owing to the ongoing ME crisis. We expect EBITDA margin to decline by 265bps yoy owing to higher contribution of its lower-margin non-ports business as well as port margins declining by ~250bps (on account of absence of highmargin cargo volumes). We retain ADD and raise our SOTP-based TP by 8% to Rs350 from Rs325 (implying 18x Jun-28E EV/EBITDA)

Delhivery (BUY; TP raised by ~10% to Rs575)

We expect 27% yoy revenue growth, driven by a robust 36% and 18% yoy growth in the B2C Express and PTL segment, respectively. B2C volumes are likely to rise 53% yoy, boosted by a pause in insourcing as well as tailwinds from sector consolidation sustaining. Continued market-share gains in the B2B industry should underpin 15% yoy volume growth in PTL segment. We build in modest margin improvement (~31bps yoy), with operating leverage benefits partly diluted by elevated fuel costs (fallout of the West Asia crisis) and higher manpower expenses following the labor-code rollout. We raise our FY27/FY28 revenue estimates by 5%/2%, respectively, to capture long-term growth tailwinds in the B2C segment. However, we reduce our EBITDA margin estimate by ~84/57bps for FY27/FY28, respectively. We retain BUY and raise Jun-27E TP by ~10% to Rs575 from Rs525 (DCF methodology)

VRL Logistics (ADD; TP: Rs260)

We estimate VRL’s revenue to grow 5% yoy, as the drag from the deliberate exit of low-yield freight is now behind and volumes normalize on a cleaner base. We expect volumes to be the primary revenue driver in 1Q (+5% yoy). However, owing to rising cost pressures in the industry, we expect a 9% increase in freight costs, leading to a 5% yoy decline in EBITDA. Further, with an estimated 13% increase in depreciation owing to fleet additions, we forecast a 9% yoy decline in PAT for 1Q. Key aspects to monitor include management commentary on volume recovery trends and the sustainability of current margins. Additionally, fuel prices will remain a key monitorable, as sustenance of higher diesel prices could impact margins in the near term, in our view. We largely retain our FY27/FY28 estimates. We retain ADD and Jun27E TP of Rs260.

Blue Dart Express (ADD; TP: Rs5,450)

We estimate 9% yoy revenue growth for BDE, driven by surface and B2C segments. Blended realizations are likely to expand ~1% yoy. However, owing to fuel price hikes in 1Q and implementation of new labor codes, we forecast a 13%/8% yoy increase in freight/employee costs – leading to 4% yoy growth in EBITDA, implying a 59bps yoy decline in margin. We forecast a 19% yoy increase in depreciation, leading to a PAT decline of 23% yoy. We raise our FY27/FY28 EBITDA estimates by 3%/5%, respectively, while keeping revenue estimates largely unchanged. We retain ADD and Jun-27E TP of Rs5,450 (based on DCF methodology).

TCI Express (REDUCE; TP: Rs550)

We expect 8% yoy revenue growth in 1Q, primarily on account of volume growth (+8% yoy). Like other surface players, we bake in an increase in fuel (+8% yoy) and employee (+9% yoy) costs – leading to flat YoY EBITDA and a margin dilution of 71bps yoy. We forecast a PAT decline of 6% yoy due to higher depreciation. We note that in a cost-inflationary environment, TCIE’s vendor management prowess aids margin expansion as it passes on any rise in fuel costs to customers. However, the impact on volumes owing to higher competitive intensity and lower uptick in SME customers would offset the cost management prowess the company has demonstrated in the past. We await signs of a sustained volume trajectory before turning constructive on TCI Express. We retain REDUCE with Jun-27E TP of Rs550 (DCF methodology).

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