Key highlights from the OPEC monthly report and the outlook for global oil demand by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Robust Growth in Global Oil Demand: OPEC maintains its forecasts for robust growth in global oil demand for both 2023 and 2024. This is despite various challenges such as high interest rates and elevated inflation.
Growth Projections: OPEC predicts that world oil demand will increase by 2.44 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and 2.25 million bpd in 2024. These forecasts have remained unchanged from the previous month.
China's Role: The lifting of pandemic lockdowns in China has contributed to the rise in oil demand in 2023. China's economic recovery and increased mobility have positively impacted oil consumption.
Optimistic View on 2024: OPEC holds an optimistic view on oil demand growth in 2024, expecting stronger demand despite headwinds. This perspective contrasts with some other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), which have a more conservative outlook.
Factors Driving Demand: OPEC attributes the forecasted growth in oil demand to ongoing global economic growth. They highlight the recovery in tourism, air travel, and steady driving mobility as contributing factors.
Recovery from Pandemic: OPEC anticipates that global oil demand will surpass pre-COVID-19 levels in 2023. The oil demand collapse experienced in 2020 led to predictions of an early peak in global oil use, but OPEC has consistently believed in its recovery.
Demand Projection: OPEC projects that global oil demand will average 102.1 million bpd in 2023, exceeding the pre-pandemic rate observed in 2019.
OPEC+ Supply Management: OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, initiated supply cuts in 2022 to support the oil market. The report mentions that these measures have contributed to market stability.
Brent Crude Prices: Global benchmark Brent crude oil prices exceeded $90 a barrel for the first time in 2023 after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary production cuts until the end of the year. After the release of the report, Brent crude prices rose further, reaching $91.82 a barrel, marking a fresh high for 2023.
IEA Outlook: The IEA, another influential organization in the energy sector, is expected to release its latest outlook, which may have different projections for 2024 demand growth. It's noteworthy that OPEC's outlook appears more optimistic than the IEA's current view.
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