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Gold

Gold settled 0.27% higher at Rs. 1,42,552 on Thursday in a light trading session due to Diwali, recovering on short covering after recent losses driven by rising oil prices, inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin supported further gradual interest rate increases, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient labour market. Markets currently price in a 68% probability of a December rate hike. Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, while Citi maintained a bullish outlook with targets of $4,500 over three months and $5,000 over six to twelve months, conditional on geopolitical de-escalation. According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs attracted $2.7 billion in October, increasing holdings by 19 tonnes to 4,275 tonnes, despite a 6% decline in assets under management to $542 billion. Central bank purchases rose 42% year-on-year to 321 tonnes in the third quarter, while year-to-date purchases reached 675 tonnes, prompting the WGC to expect 2026 buying to match or exceed 2025 levels of 848 tonnes. China added 103.26 tonnes to its gold reserves during the first nine months, taking total holdings to 2,409.59 tonnes. However, global bar and coin demand declined 19% year-on-year to 268 tonnes, while jewellery consumption dropped 17% to 313 tonnes. India's gold demand is projected to decline to around 650 tonnes in 2026, its lowest level since 2020, as elevated prices, rising living costs and rural economic weakness weigh on consumption. Nevertheless, physical buying improved across Asian markets ahead of Diwali as lower prices encouraged retail purchases. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.41% to 15,706 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 385. Gold is currently finding support at Rs. 1,42,240, followed by Rs. 1,41,930, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,42,780. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,43,010.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141930-143010.

* Gold gained in light trading day on Diwali day on short covering after prices dropped amid a rebound in oil

* Fed’s Hammack and Barkin support further rate hikes

* Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650.

* Global gold ETFs saw $2.7bn of net inflows in October, led by European funds - WGC

Silver

Silver settled 0.17% higher at Rs. 1,85,100, recovering marginally on short covering after recent losses triggered by a stronger US dollar and better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, which reinforced expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October against market expectations of 65,000, while unemployment unexpectedly declined to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, and previous employment figures were revised upward by a combined 84,000, strengthening the hawkish outlook. However, silver gained more than 6% during the week, supported by safe-haven demand following the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections and investor rotation away from technology stocks. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams reiterated that inflation remains excessively high and must return to the central bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, Perth Mint silver sales declined 36% month-on-month to 388,536 ounces in October from 605,408 ounces in September, reflecting weaker investment demand amid higher interest rates. According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the global silver market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Global silver supply is forecast to decline 2%, while total demand is expected to fall 2% due to weaker industrial and jewellery consumption. Industrial fabrication is projected to decrease 3% to a four-year low, whereas coin and bar demand is expected to increase 18%. The market has drawn 762 million ounces from inventories since 2021, highlighting persistent structural supply tightness despite improving liquidity. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.36% to 16,765 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 313. Silver is currently finding support at Rs. 1,84,820, followed by Rs. 1,84,540, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,85,360. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,85,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 184540-185620.

• Silver gained on short covering after prices dropped as the US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report.

* The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 4.1%.

* US inflation too high; essential to get back to 2%: Fed's Williams

* Perth Mint's silver sales fell 36% in October from the prior month

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 1.12% higher at Rs. 8,554, supported by concerns over renewed US-Iran military escalation and continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Investors weighed diplomatic efforts led by US President Donald Trump and Qatar's Emir against persistent obstacles, as Iran continues to demand sanctions relief, the lifting of the US naval blockade and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, attacks on oil-carrying vessels remain elevated, with UKMTO data indicating incidents close to record levels. However, rising global supply is limiting the upside, with JPMorgan estimating that the oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October. US crude production reached a record 14.003 million bpd in the week ended October 30. According to the EIA, US crude inventories declined by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 222,000 barrels to 209 million barrels. Distillate inventories dropped sharply by 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations. Refinery utilisation increased 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%. On the demand front, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd from 1.4 million bpd at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 outlook on expectations of recovering demand and inventory rebuilding. Supply developments also remain important, as Russian crude production increased by 65,000 bpd month-on-month to 8.43 million bpd in September, according to the IEA, although output remained below year-ago levels amid continued disruptions to refinery operations. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.36% to 7,309 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 95. Crude oil is currently finding support at Rs. 8,490, followed by Rs. 8,425, while resistance is placed at Rs. 8,605. A sustained move above this resistance could extend the recovery towards Rs. 8,660.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8425-8660.

* Crude oil gained as investors weighed the risk of renewed US-Iran military escalation against prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough.

* US President Donald Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.

* Significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets.

* Attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue, with UKMTO data indicating that incidents remain close to record levels.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.49% higher at Rs. 285, supported by forecasts for cooler weather in late November, record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export facilities and a recent decline in US production. According to LSEG, average US Lower 48 gas output declined to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, compared with 113.4 bcfd in October and a record 115.0 bcfd in August. Meanwhile, US natural gas inventories increased by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 30, below market expectations of 81 bcf, taking total storage to 3.801 trillion cubic feet. Inventories remained 2.8% below year-ago levels but 1.4% above the five-year average. The storage surplus is expected to improve to 2.1% above normal, indicating comfortable supply availability ahead of winter. The US Energy Information Administration projected both production and consumption to reach record levels in 2026 and 2027. Dry gas production is forecast to increase from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to rise from 91.9 bcfd to 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also projected to increase from a record 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, providing additional demand support. However, the medium-term outlook remains bearish as Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and expectations that US supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects comfortable market conditions to persist in the coming years, potentially delaying a significant tightening of supply-demand balances until 2029. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.48% to 51,727 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 1.40. Natural gas is currently finding support at Rs. 281.50, followed by Rs. 278.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 287. A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 289.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural Gas trading range for the day is 278.50-289.00.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for cooler weather, record gas flows to LNG export plants and a drop in output.

* LNG feedgas flows reach 18.8 bcfd in November and could hit daily record on Friday

* Storage surplus likely widened to 2.1% above five-year norm, analyst estimates show

* Warmer-than-normal weather through Nov. 21 should curb near-term heating demand

Copper

Copper settled unchanged at Rs. 1,339.35 as a technology stock selloff weighed on broader market sentiment, with Democratic victories in the US midterm elections raising concerns that increased regulatory oversight could slow artificial intelligence infrastructure investment and limit future copper demand. However, supply-side constraints provided support and prevented further losses. China's Yangshan copper premium climbed to $210 per tonne, its joint highest level since tracking began in 2012, indicating strong demand for imported metal. Meanwhile, inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 24.1% from the previous Friday and have fallen more than 75% over the past six months. China's refined copper imports increased 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September, reflecting improved buying interest. However, the broader global market remains in surplus, with the International Copper Study Group reporting a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August against a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July. The cumulative surplus during the first eight months reached 218,000 tonnes compared with 158,000 tonnes a year earlier. The ICSG expects the global refined copper surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by rising mine and refinery production. Refined copper output is projected to grow 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while consumption is expected to increase 1.5% and 2.5%, respectively. On the supply front, Chile's Cochilco lowered its production outlook, citing operational disruptions and constrained mine supply, while raising its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027. Production weakness at major Chilean operations, including Codelco and Escondida, further highlights supply-side challenges. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.29% to 7,324 contracts while prices increased marginally by Rs. 0.05. Copper is currently finding support at Rs. 1,335.50, followed by Rs. 1,331.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,343. A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 1,347.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1331.50-1347.00.

* Copper settled flat as a rout in technology stocks battered markets.

* The closely watched Yangshan copper premium, increased to $210 a ton, its joint highest since 2012.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 24.1 %.

Zinc

Zinc settled marginally higher by 0.06% at Rs. 411.90, as a technology stock selloff weighed on broader market sentiment, while tightening mine supply and concerns over smelter disruptions limited the downside. Supply concerns intensified following operational incidents at Korea Zinc, Glencore's Kazzinc and YoungPoong's Seokpo smelter, raising uncertainty over potential refined metal losses. Meanwhile, declining Chinese zinc concentrate imports have tightened raw material availability, pushing treatment charges to record lows and forcing some smelters to reduce production. China's refined zinc output declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, while inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.3% from the previous Friday. Tightness in the London market was also evident as the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract increased to $106 per tonne from $45 previously. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the future of Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands added to supply concerns. However, expectations of recovering Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease near-term tightness. China's manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, with the RatingDog Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 in October, marking the eleventh consecutive month above the 50-point threshold. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August against a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, although the cumulative surplus during the first eight months stood at 96,000 tonnes. The ILZSG expects the market to shift from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by a 2% increase in refined production to 14.21 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is forecast to rise 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.25% to 1,567 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 0.25. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs. 410.50, followed by Rs. 409, while resistance is placed at Rs. 413. A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 414.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 409.00-414.00.

* Zinc settled flat weighed down by a rout in technology stocks, although supply concerns limited the downside.

* Pressure also seen as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.3% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled marginally lower by 0.11% at Rs. 329.95, pressured by improving global supply prospects and expectations of a potential market surplus in 2027. However, losses were limited by tightening global inventories, which declined to just 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, reflecting resilient demand. Additional support came from a weaker US dollar following the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Supply expectations are gradually improving as Middle Eastern production recovers, Chinese output remains resilient and Indonesian capacity continues to expand. Earlier estimates of 3–3.5 million tonnes of lost Middle Eastern production have been revised lower, with annual losses now expected to remain below 2 million tonnes. Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring approximately 50% of capacity, with full production expected by the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China's aluminium inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 30.6% from the previous Friday. China's primary aluminium production reached 11.84 million tonnes in the third quarter, increasing 2.2% year-on-year, while September production rose 3.1% to 3.91 million tonnes. Cumulative production during the first nine months increased 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, supported by strong smelting margins and high operating rates. However, the International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production of 6.014 million tonnes in September, down from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier, indicating continued weakness in overall global output. On the other hand, expectations of recovering Middle Eastern supply and expanding Indonesian production could improve availability and weigh on prices over the medium term. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 0.11% to 3,612 contracts while prices decreased by Rs. 0.35. Aluminium is currently finding support at Rs. 329.50, followed by Rs. 329, while resistance is placed at Rs. 330.50. A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 331.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 329.00-331.50.

• Aluminium dropped amid concerns over improving global supply prospects and expectations of a potential market surplus in 2027.

• Global inventories fell to 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, as demand remained strong.

• Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 30.6% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.15% higher at Rs. 28,348, supported by tight pipeline supplies, lower acreage estimates for the upcoming season and concerns over adverse weather conditions in major producing regions. However, active profit booking emerged after the recent sharp rally, while overseas inquiries from Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia temporarily slowed as buyers awaited price stability. Physical trading sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli and Erode also turned cautious due to higher prevailing prices. Nevertheless, lower arrivals provided support, with total turmeric arrivals estimated at around 6,000 bags, down approximately 2,000 bags from the previous session. Weather conditions remain a major concern, as persistently dry conditions in Maharashtra could affect crop growth and yields if adequate rainfall does not arrive, while forecast cyclonic rainfall across South India raises concerns about excessive or untimely precipitation. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased some crop failure concerns. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks have declined to approximately 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, highlighting tighter availability. Meanwhile, India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes against 63,020 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil increased 50%, 57% and 37%, respectively, in August, while exports to Bangladesh declined 85%. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers continues to support premium-quality stocks, although stricter European Union residue regulations are creating pressure on non-compliant grades. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices declined 0.11% to Rs. 24,954.10. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.26% to 18,945 contracts while prices advanced by Rs. 322. Turmeric is currently finding support at Rs. 28,170, followed by Rs. 27,990, while resistance is placed at Rs. 28,560. A sustained move above this level could extend the rally towards Rs. 28,770.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 27990-28770.

* Turmeric prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

* Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

* Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24954.1 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.25% higher at Rs. 27,620, supported by improving export demand, tightening domestic and global supplies, and concerns over weather conditions and limited water availability due to the El Niño phenomenon. Minimal Syrian supplies have increased demand for Indian cumin, although China's expanding domestic cultivation has reduced its import requirements. Gujarat declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts, raising concerns over agricultural output and water availability. Uncertainty surrounding rainfall and soil moisture in key cumin-growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat is also influencing sowing expectations for the upcoming season. However, higher prices, expectations of stable-to-higher acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan, and aggressive farmer selling to generate cash flow ahead of the next season are limiting the upside. Estimates suggest India's cumin production could decline to 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Meanwhile, improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria could increase global availability and pressure Indian export premiums. India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 14,532 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Shipments to the USA, Singapore and Mexico increased, while exports to the UAE and Bangladesh recorded significant declines. On a broader annual basis, exports declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes during September 2025-August 2026. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices increased marginally by 0.01% to Rs. 27,181.10. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.84% to 4,278 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 70. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs. 27,560, followed by Rs. 27,490, while resistance is placed at Rs. 27,720. A sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 27,820.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 27490-27820.

* Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

* Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

* With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 27181.1 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

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