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Gold

Gold prices settled down by 1.57% at 72990 as the dollar firmed and investors locked in profits following the metal's recent surge, driven by increasing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts in September. This decline comes after Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent inflation readings give some confidence that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank's target sustainably. The market sees a 98% chance of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In the Asian markets, physical gold demand was sluggish despite deep discounts. In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $65 an ounce over official domestic prices, the highest level in 28 months, compared to last week’s discount of $31. In China, dealers were offering discounts of up to $6 an ounce on international spot prices, the lowest in over two years, compared with premiums of $8-$19 last week. Swiss gold exports in June fell to the lowest level since April 2022 due to reduced shipments to China and India. Switzerland, the world's biggest bullion refining and transit hub, experienced this decline, reflecting the sensitivity of gold demand in China and India to high prices. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with a significant drop in open interest by 13.78% to settle at 10735, while prices fell by 1165 rupees. Currently, gold is finding support at 72655, and a break below this level could see a test of 72325. On the upside, resistance is likely at 73590, and a move above could see prices testing 74195.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 72325-74195.
* Gold prices dipped as the dollar firmed and some investors locked in profits
* Markets see a 98% chance of a Fed rate cut in September – CME
* Asian physical gold demand was sluggish, reflecting customers' reluctance to make new purchases despite deep discounts.
 
 
 Silver
Silver prices settled down by 2.32% at 89646 as the U.S. dollar index climbed, driven by stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market and manufacturing. Data revealed that manufacturing activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region expanded more than anticipated in July, fueled by a surge in new orders. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the need for more confidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the central bank’s 2% target, despite recent improvements. Externally, the European Central Bank held rates steady, with ECB President Christine Lagarde indicating that the next decision in September remains uncertain. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the US central bank is 'getting closer' to an interest rate cut, reflecting the improved inflation trajectory and a more balanced labor market. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expressed optimism over the broadening easing in inflation and hoped to see it continue. In housing data, US Building Permits increased by 3.4% to 1.446 million in June from 1.399 million in May, while Housing Starts rose by 3.0% to 1.353 million from 1.314 million in the same period. US Industrial Production also climbed 0.6% month-on-month in June, beating the estimated 0.3% increase, although down from the previous month's 1.0% rise. Technically, the silver market is under fresh selling pressure, evidenced by an 8.66% gain in open interest to settle at 26279, while prices declined by 2126 rupees. Silver is currently finding support at 88800, with a potential test of 87950 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is likely at 90970, and a move above this level could see prices testing 92290.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 87950-92290.
* Silver dropped as U.S. dollar index climbed after stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labour market.
* Fed’s Waller said that the US central bank is ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut.
* Fed’s Barkin said he is "very encouraged" that easing in inflation has begun to broaden and he would like to see it continue.
 
 
Crudeoil  
Crude oil prices settled down by 3.42% at 6612, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over the economic outlook of China, the world's largest oil importer. The U.S. dollar index strengthened following robust data on the U.S. labor market and manufacturing, which pressured crude prices. Additionally, fears about China's economy further dampened demand sentiment. The crude oil market received some temporary support earlier in the week from a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. oil stockpiles, as reported by the U.S. government. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 4.87 million barrels in the week ending July 12, 2024, marking the third consecutive week of stockpile reductions, the longest such stretch since September. Despite this, the overall sentiment was bearish due to external factors. The market is also watching OPEC+ closely, as the producer group is unlikely to recommend changes to its output policy, including plans to start unwinding some oil supply cuts from October. On the other hand, gasoline stocks in the U.S. rose by 3.328 million barrels against expectations of a 1.7 million barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 3.454 million barrels, compared with a forecasted decrease of 0.5 million barrels. Technically, the crude oil market is under fresh selling pressure, with a significant 55.54% increase in open interest to settle at 4699. Prices have dropped by 234 rupees. Crude oil is currently finding support at 6537, and a breach below this level could see prices testing 6462. On the upside, resistance is expected at 6750, and a move above this level could push prices to 6888.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6462-6888.
*  Crude oil dropped amid a strong dollar and concern over the economy of China.
* WTI futures backwardation widens to 8 – month high as Cushing stocks fall
* Crude stocks at the Cushing hub, excluding SPR barrels fell by 875,000 barrels to 32.66 million in the week to July 12.
 
 
 Naturalgas
Natural gas prices settled slightly down by 0.17% at 177.5, influenced by milder weather forecasts and a reduction in feedgas to LNG export plants. Gas flows to US LNG export facilities decreased to 11.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, down from 12.8 bcfd in June. This decline is primarily due to the extended shutdown of Freeport LNG and operational cuts at Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi plant. Freeport LNG has been offline longer than expected after halting operations for Hurricane Beryl, delaying seven to ten shipments. It is expected to restart one processing unit this week, with the other units to follow at reduced capacity. Meteorologists forecast near-normal weather across the Lower 48 states through July 24, with expectations of hotter-than-normal conditions from July 25 to August 1. This weather pattern could potentially influence natural gas demand for cooling purposes. U.S. output reached a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. US utilities added 10 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas into storage during the week ending July 12, 2024, below market expectations of a 28 Bcf increase. Technically, the natural gas market is under long liquidation as it has witnessed a drop in open interest by 14.17% to settle at 25,418 while prices fell by 0.3 rupees. Natural gas is currently finding support at 174, and a move below this level could see prices testing 170.4. On the upside, resistance is likely to be seen at 179.7, and a move above this level could push prices to 181.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 170.4-181.8.
* Natural gas dropped influenced by milder weather forecasts and reduced feedgas to LNG export plants.
* Gas flows to US LNG export facilities decreased to 11.6 bcfd so far in July, down from 12.8 bcfd in June.
* Meteorologists forecast near-normal weather across the Lower 48 states through July 24, followed by hotter-than-normal conditions until August 1.
 
 
 Copper
Copper prices settled down by 0.92% at 820.3, primarily influenced by the lack of additional stimulus measures from China, the world's largest consumer of metals. Despite China's economy struggling to maintain growth momentum, the key political meeting did not provide details on further economic support, dampening demand prospects. China's refined copper output, crucial for investors betting on long-term supply tightness driven by the rising demand for energy transition technology, saw a 3.6% increase in June to 1.13 million metric tons. However, this increase did not alleviate concerns as the December closure of First Quantum's Panama Cobre mine and output reductions elsewhere have squeezed raw material supplies for smelters. In contrast, copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses surged to a 33-month high of 221,100 tons. Inventories in other key warehouses, including Comex, bonded warehouses in China, and those designated by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, also increased in July, further pointing to weak demand. The global refined copper market showed a surplus of 13,000 metric tons in April, compared to a 123,000 metric ton surplus in March. For the first four months of the year, the market was in a surplus of 299,000 metric tons, up from 175,000 metric tons a year earlier. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 11.32% to settle at 8372 while prices fell by 7.6 rupees. Copper is currently finding support at 816.5, and a move below this level could see prices testing 812.7. On the upside, resistance is likely to be seen at 826.7, and a move above this level could see prices testing 833.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 812.7-833.1.
* Copper prices dropped due to the lack of Chinese stimulus measures.
* China's June imports of copper slipped to a 14-month low.
* Copper inventories in LME warehouses, meanwhile, have risen to a 33-month high of 221,100 tons, LME data showed.
 
 
Zinc  
Zinc prices settled down by 1.9% at 260.95 amid ongoing concerns about the weak Chinese economy and the absence of anticipated stimulus measures. The recent key political meeting in China did not provide any details on further economic support, despite the country's second-quarter economic growth data falling short of expectations. In June, China's refined zinc production stood at 545,800 metric tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 1.81% but a year-on-year decline of 1.2%. The total output for the first half of the year was 3.182 million metric tons, down 1.39% from the previous year, yet higher than anticipated. This increase in production was primarily driven by higher-than-expected outputs in regions like Guangxi, Gansu, and Guizhou. Adding to the supply concerns, China's MMG Ltd halted operations at a mill at its Dugald River zinc mine in Australia for approximately two months of repair work. The zinc concentrates market is already tight, and this closure is expected to exacerbate the shortages. Despite these supply-side challenges, zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses rebounded by 9% to their highest level in nearly three months, indicating a surplus of metal in the market. Technically, the zinc market is experiencing long liquidation as open interest dropped by 30.18% to settle at 1432, with prices decreasing by 5.05 rupees. Zinc is currently finding support at 257.8, with potential testing of 254.5 levels if this support is breached. On the upside, resistance is likely to be seen at 267.1, and a move above this level could see prices testing 273.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 254.5-273.1.
* Zinc prices dropped amid a weak Chinese economy and the lack of stimulus announcements.
*  In June, China's refined zinc production was 545,800 mt, up 9,700 mt or 1.81% MoM
* Zinc inventories in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange rebounded 9% to their highest level in nearly three months
 
 
 Aluminium
Aluminium prices dropped by 0.52% to 220.7, pressured by rising inventories and fluctuating market dynamics. SHFE aluminium inventories reached 262,200 tons, the highest level since April 2023, indicating an increase in supply. China's imports of unwrought aluminium and related products surged by 16% to 240,000 metric tons in June. This brought the total for the first half of the year to 2.04 million tons, marking a significant 70.1% increase from the same period last year, as per data from the General Administration of Customs. Reflecting tighter supplies in Asia, the premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for the July to September quarter was set at $172 per metric ton, up 16%-19% from the previous quarter. At the same time, aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose to 317,860 metric tons at the end of June, a 3% increase from the previous month. China, the world's largest aluminium producer, saw a 6.2% year-on-year increase in primary aluminium production in June, reaching 3.67 million metric tons. This represents the highest single month of production since records began in November 2014. For the first half of the year, China's aluminium output totaled 21.55 million tons, a 6.9% rise from the same period last year. Technically, the aluminium market is under long liquidation, with a notable drop in open interest by 22.71%, settling at 2430. Prices have decreased by 1.15 rupees. Aluminium is currently finding support at 219.8, with a potential test of 218.8 levels if the support fails. On the upside, resistance is expected at 222.5, and a move above this level could see prices testing 224.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 218.8-224.2.
* Aluminium dropped as SHFE inventories rose to 262,200 tons, the highest since April 2023.
* China's June aluminium imports up 16% on – year
* Japan buyers agree to pay higher Q3 aluminium premiums reflecting tighter supplies in Asia
 
 
 Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices settled down by 0.48% at 56,520 due to profit booking after a period of gains. This decline follows significant reductions in the cotton planting area across key Indian states. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan collectively reported a total of 10.23 lakh hectares under cotton, a sharp decline from last year's 16 lakh hectares. Specifically, Punjab saw a drastic reduction from 7.58 lakh hectares in the 1980s and 1990s to just 97,000 hectares this year. Additional support for cotton prices comes from delays in shipments from the US and Brazil, which has increased demand for Indian cotton from mills in neighboring countries. The firm trend in cottonseed prices is also contributing to the stability of cotton prices, even as sowing for the kharif 2024 season has begun in Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh with the onset of monsoon rains. The 2024/25 US cotton projections indicate higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month, with unchanged production, domestic use, and exports. The season average upland farm price is down by 4 cents to 70 cents per pound due to a decline in new-crop cotton futures, resulting in ending stocks being 400,000 bales higher at 4.1 million, or 28 percent of use. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 8.83% to settle at 320 while prices decreased by 270 rupees. Currently, Cottoncandy is finding support at 56,400, with potential further testing at 56,280 levels. Resistance is likely at 56,650, and a move above this level could see prices testing 56,780.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56280-56780.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices gained as area under cotton in North India drops
* China's agriculture ministry raised its forecast for cotton imports in the 2023/24 crop year by 200,000 metric tons
* The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.
 
 
 Turmeric
Turmeric prices settled down by 2.11% at 15876 amid news of increased sowing activities. However, the downside was limited as farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of further price rises. The current sentiment is that due to fair prices, turmeric sowing is expected to increase in all major producing states. Reports suggest that sowing in the Erode region has doubled compared to last year, and in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, there is an estimated 30-35% increase in sowing compared to the previous year. Last year, turmeric was sown in about 3-3.25 lakh hectares across the country. This year, the sowing area is expected to increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares. Due to unfavorable weather conditions last year, the production of turmeric was estimated at 45-50 lakh bags, with an additional outstanding stock of 35-38 lakh bags. Turmeric exports during April-May 2024 dropped by 20.03% to 31,523.94 tonnes compared to 39,418.73 tonnes in the same period in 2023. In May 2024, around 17,414.84 tonnes of turmeric were exported, showing a rise of 23.43% compared to April 2024 but a 12.17% drop compared to May 2023. In the Nizamabad market, a major spot market for turmeric, prices ended at 16369.6 Rupees, dropping by 0.95%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with a gain in open interest by 1.77%, settling at 16080 contracts while prices fell by 342 rupees. Turmeric is currently getting support at 15756, and a break below this level could see it testing 15638. On the upside, resistance is now likely at 16036, and a move above this level could see prices testing 16198.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15638-16198.
* Turmeric dropped amid news of increased sowing.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year.
* Turmeric was sown in about 3/3.25 lakh hectares in the country last year, which is estimated to increase to 3.75/4 lakh hectares this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16369.6 Rupees dropped by -0.95 percent.
 
 
 Jeera
Jeera prices settled down by 1.52% at 26620 due to expectations of higher production, although the downside was limited by strong domestic and export demand alongside tight global supplies. Farmers are holding back stocks, anticipating better prices in the future. This season, jeera production is expected to rise by 30%, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes due to a substantial increase in the cultivation area, with Gujarat's sowing area up by 104% and Rajasthan's by 16%. Globally, jeera production has significantly increased, especially in China, where output surged to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons. High prices from the prior season have also spurred increased production in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, with new seeds expected in June and July. Turkey's production is anticipated to be 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double, depending on weather conditions.  The expectation of higher production continues to weigh on prices. This season, jeera production is likely to be 30% higher at 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, driven by a substantial rise in the cultivation area. Jeera exports during April-May 2024 rose by 43.50% to 58,943.84 tonnes compared to 41,076.27 tonnes in the same period in 2023. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure with a gain in open interest by 0.18% to settle at 27090 contracts, while prices fell by 410 rupees. Jeera is currently getting support at 26340, and a break below this level could see it testing 26070. On the upside, resistance is now likely at 27090, and a move above this level could see prices testing 27570.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26070-27570.
* Jeera dropped as the expectation of higher production could weigh on the prices.
* China's cumin output soared to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons.
*  Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 27235.3 Rupees dropped by -0.85 percent.

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