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Gold

Gold settled 0.3% lower at Rs 146,079 as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns and investors awaited next week’s Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the interest rate outlook. Stronger-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data, driven by elevated energy prices, reinforced concerns about persistent inflation, while escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and increased tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply disruption risks. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, although markets anticipate a possible rate hike in December. Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signalling the policy decision, while indicating that recent inflation developments had not changed his assessment of the US economy. Meanwhile, COMEX gold speculative net long positions fell by 3,741 contracts to 111,079 in the week ended October 13, according to CFTC data, indicating reduced bullish positioning. In physical markets, Indian gold traded at premiums of up to $7 per ounce for the first time in more than three months as lower prices encouraged jewellery purchases, compared with discounts of up to $6 last week. However, India's gold imports fell sharply to $1.8 billion in September from $9.6 billion a year earlier. China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million ounces in August, despite the value of its reserves declining to $323.52 billion. Swiss gold exports rose 6% month on month to 165.2 tonnes, their highest level since February 2025, driven by stronger shipments to Britain, while exports to China declined 51%. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification, although a more hawkish Federal Reserve could trigger a correction. Technically, gold is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 1.38% to 16,597 contracts alongside a Rs 440 price fall. Support is placed at Rs 145,560, followed by Rs 145,040, while resistance is seen at Rs 146,570, above which prices could test Rs 147,050.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 145040-147050.

• Gold dropped as a rally in oil prices revived inflation concerns while investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

• Goldman Sachs expects global central bank gold purchases in August of 79 tonnes, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes.

• Goldman Sachs says central-bank demand remains a structural support for gold.

• Swiss gold exports rose 6% in September from August to 165.2 metric tons, their highest level since February 2025

Silver

Silver settled 1.1% lower at Rs 209,168 as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations of tighter monetary policy. Oil prices resumed their upward trend after a diplomat dismissed reports of an imminent deal to end the US-Iran conflict, while escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and increased tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply disruption risks. Stronger-than-expected US consumer and producer inflation data further dampened sentiment, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee describing the latest readings as discouraging. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that the Federal Reserve might need to raise interest rates more aggressively if inflation expectations deteriorate significantly. Although the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged next week, markets anticipate a possible rate hike in December, while upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data remains a key focus. According to CFTC data, COMEX silver speculative net long positions fell by 1,874 contracts to 5,735 in the week ended October 13, indicating reduced bullish positioning. Meanwhile, the silver market is projected to record its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit, with the global shortfall expected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Since 2021, approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from inventories, raising concerns about potential liquidity constraints despite improving availability in London vaults. Total silver demand is forecast to decline 2% in 2026 due to weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, while industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low. In contrast, coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%, supported by recovering US investment demand. Global silver supply is forecast to decline 2%, providing underlying support to the market despite near-term demand concerns. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.87% to 19,888 contracts alongside a Rs 2,317 price decline. Support is placed at Rs 208,170, followed by Rs 207,170, while resistance is seen at Rs 210,520, above which prices could test Rs 211,880.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 207170-211880.

• Silver fell as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for interest rate hikes.

• Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week, though markets anticipate a possible rate hike in December.

• Fed’s Goolsbee said that data this week showing stronger-than-expected consumer and producer price inflation has been "discouraging."

• COMEX silver speculative net longs fell 1,874 contracts to 5,735.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 1.11% lower at Rs 9,208 as improving shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in diplomatic mediation efforts between the US and Iran eased immediate supply disruption concerns. Prices retreated after WTI touched a six-month high, with traders closely monitoring the peace proposal backed by Pakistan and Qatar. However, Iran expressed limited optimism about diplomatic progress, with its foreign minister reaffirming the country's readiness to defend itself amid continued US pressure, keeping geopolitical risks elevated. Supporting prices, US crude inventories declined significantly, although estimates varied across reports. According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude stocks fell by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, exceeding expectations for an 820,000-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels, contrary to expectations for a decline. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by approximately 987,000 barrels, while refinery utilisation eased slightly to 93.4%. China's domestic crude oil production increased 2.2% year on year to 18.21 million tonnes in September. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but raised its 2027 outlook as depleted inventories are expected to require replenishment. OPEC also reported a sharp increase in Saudi Arabian crude production in September, while the International Energy Agency said Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day month on month to 8.43 million barrels per day, remaining below year-earlier levels. Continued geopolitical uncertainty and declining US crude inventories provide underlying support, although improving shipping flows and weaker demand expectations are limiting gains. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.28% to 13,484 contracts alongside a Rs 103 price decline. Support is placed at Rs 9,050, followed by Rs 8,895, while resistance is seen at Rs 9,450, above which prices could test Rs 9,690.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8895-9690.

• Crude oil dropped following reports indicating progress in Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic over the past few days.

• In the US, two Energy Department officials said that they were working with refiners around the world to boost fuel output.

• US crude oil inventories fell by 4.93 million barrels, well above market expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw - API

• US oil production slipped to 13.679 million barrels per day, down from 13.979 million barrels per day a week earlier.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 3.73% lower at Rs 304.8 as forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather through early November reduced expectations for heating demand. Mild temperatures through late October are expected to limit both heating and cooling consumption, while weakening expectations of a strong El Niño further dampened the winter demand outlook. These bearish factors outweighed support from rising liquefied natural gas exports and lower domestic production. Average gas flows to nine major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.2 billion cubic feet per day in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September, while Lower 48 states production averaged 111.4 billion cubic feet per day, down from record levels of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September. US natural gas inventories increased by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 9, below market expectations of 76 billion cubic feet and the five-year seasonal average of 90 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.567 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.9% below year-earlier levels but 1.3% above the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast to increase to 92.4 billion cubic feet per day and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. LNG exports are also expected to rise to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. However, stronger supply growth is expected to outpace demand expansion. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 Nymex natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing higher Permian production and an increasingly comfortable supply-demand balance. The bank expects the market to remain well supplied in the near term, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest surging 50.3% to 35,153 contracts alongside an Rs 11.8 price decline. Support is placed at Rs 299.50, followed by Rs 294.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 314.00, above which prices could test Rs 323.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 294.50-323.50.

• Natural gas slid as forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather through early November curbed expectations for heating demand.

• Temperatures are expected to remain mild through late October, curbing both heating and cooling demand.

• Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in October from 17.9 bcfd in September.

• Gas production across the Lower 48 states averaged 111.4 bcfd this month, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September.

Copper

Copper settled 0.59% lower at Rs 1,390.4 as rising inventories and easing supply concerns weighed on prices despite record premium offers from producers for physical deliveries in 2027. London Metal Exchange inventories increased by 11,475 tonnes, gaining 8% in a week, while available stocks rose 40%, indicating improved near-term availability. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories also increased by 25.9% from the previous Friday. However, regional tightness outside the United States continues to support physical premiums, with Chilean state miner Codelco offering customers a record premium of $350 per tonne over LME prices for 2027 deliveries. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. BHP reported a 19% decline in quarterly copper output to 400,700 tonnes following disruptions in Chile and Australia, while Antofagasta reported a 7% increase in third-quarter production and maintained its annual outlook after workers ended a strike at the Centinela mine. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month on month to 461,000 tonnes in September, while refined copper production increased 1.1% year on year to 1.26 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group projected the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, with the surplus widening from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Refined copper production is expected to grow 3.4% in 2027, supported by new smelting and refining capacity, while usage is forecast to increase 2.5%, driven by manufacturing, renewable energy, electrification, data centres and artificial intelligence. Mine production is also projected to rise 3.1% in 2027, potentially limiting further price gains. Technically, copper is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 8.15% to 5,958 contracts alongside an Rs 8.25 price fall. Support is placed at Rs 1,382.50, followed by Rs 1,374.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,399.50, above which prices could test Rs 1,408.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1374.50-1408.50.

• Copper prices dropped after inventories rose and worries over supply declined.

• LME inventories climbed by 11,475 tons, having gained 8% in a week.

• Available stocks, those not earmarked for removal from warehouses, have also made sharp gains, up 40% in the same period.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.27% lower at Rs 423.1 as expectations of a global refined zinc surplus in 2027 weighed on sentiment, although immediate supply tightness and declining Chinese inventories limited losses. LME cash contracts traded at a premium to three-month contracts, indicating tightness in near-term availability. Meanwhile, zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.5% from the previous Friday, reducing the stock overhang in China, the world's largest consumer. China's refined zinc production fell 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September 2026, while Western refined zinc production declined 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. Additional supply risks emerged after Nyrstar initiated a strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands. However, expectations of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability could ease supply constraints, as domestic mine output is expected to recover in October following the resumption of operations disrupted by accidents and safety inspections. Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc in the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% year on year, potentially adding to global supply. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market is projected to shift from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027. Global refined zinc production is forecast to increase 2% to 14.21 million tonnes in 2027, while mine production is expected to rise 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Demand is projected to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes, supported by consumption in Europe, India and the United States. However, Chinese demand growth is expected to slow to 0.3% from 1.8% in 2026 due to weaker real estate investment. China's net imports of refined zinc plunged 79% year on year to 38,000 tonnes during January to June, reflecting increased domestic smelting capacity and improving self-sufficiency. Technically, zinc is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 4.34% to 1,741 contracts alongside a Rs 1.15 price fall. Support is placed at Rs 420, followed by Rs 417, while resistance is seen at Rs 426, above which prices could test Rs 429.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 417.00-429.50.

• Zinc dropped as global refined zinc market is expected to swing to a surplus of 25,000 metric tons in 2027 from a deficit.

• Chinese mine output is expected to rise month-on-month in October as operations resume.

• LME cash contracts traded at a premium to three-month contracts, signalling tightness in immediate availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.44% lower at Rs 324.95 as expectations of rising global supply and record Chinese production weighed on prices, despite declining exchange inventories and tight physical availability. China produced a record 11.84 million tonnes of primary aluminium in the third quarter, up 2.2% year on year and 0.5% quarter on quarter. September production increased 3.1% year on year to 3.91 million tonnes, while output during January to September rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, supported by strong smelting margins, low raw material costs and high operating rates. However, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 11% from the previous Friday, while London Metal Exchange opening stocks fell to 238,375 tonnes, their lowest level of the 21st century, providing underlying support to physical prices. Nevertheless, the global aluminium market is expected to shift into a surplus of more than 1 million tonnes in 2027 as additional smelting capacity comes online in Indonesia and Gulf production gradually recovers following easing shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. Outside China, around 6 million tonnes of annual smelting capacity is expected to be added between 2026 and 2028, mainly through Chinese-backed projects. Indonesia's aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while China's aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year, adding to global supply availability. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October to December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting improved supply expectations. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium production reached 6.014 million tonnes in September 2026, down from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier, although daily output improved slightly month on month. Production disruptions in the Gulf region continue to provide some support, but rising Chinese output and anticipated capacity additions are likely to limit recovery. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 2.55% to 3,751 contracts alongside a Rs 1.45 price fall. Support is placed at Rs 323, followed by Rs 321.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 327, above which prices could test Rs 328.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 321.50-328.50.

• Aluminium dropped as China's primary aluminium production hit a record quarterly high in July to September.

• Production rose 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tons in September, but eased from a monthly record of 3.98 million tons in August.

• Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11% from last Friday

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 2.59% higher at Rs 25,550, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Stockholders have become reluctant to liquidate inventories following earlier selling phases, while concerns over dry weather and potential El Niño impacts have strengthened bullish sentiment. Drought conditions in Karnataka have raised production concerns, with a joint survey by state departments estimating turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs 18,824 lakh, against total cultivation of approximately 18,000–20,000 hectares. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the availability buffer. However, India's turmeric production is projected to increase by approximately 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased some crop concerns, while reservoir replenishment in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh has improved water availability for crop development. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. Nevertheless, persistent dry conditions during early growth could adversely affect yields and support prices. Export data showed that India's turmeric shipments declined 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April to July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to Turkey surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, while exports to Sri Lanka rose 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria increased 983% to 69 tonnes. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from the European Union is providing additional support, although stricter residue regulations have resulted in rejections of non-compliant lots and discounts for commercial-grade supplies. Meanwhile, turmeric prices in Nizamabad, a major spot market, declined 0.11% to Rs 22,803.3, indicating mixed local market trends. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 6.42% to 17,745 contracts alongside a Rs 646 price gain. Support is placed at Rs 24,900, followed by Rs 24,250, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,050, above which prices could test Rs 26,550.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 24250-26550.

• Turmeric prices gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation in some turmeric growing states

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22803.3 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.17% lower at Rs 26,175 due to profit booking after a recent rally, although tight nearby supplies and concerns over lower production continued to provide underlying support. Farmers have been holding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period, while declining arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have tightened the availability of premium-quality, export-grade bold seeds. Domestic production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. International production prospects remain mixed, as adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's estimated output to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while production in Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan is estimated at 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. However, improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria could increase export competition for Indian cumin. European and North American buyers have returned to the market for residue-compliant, high-specification supplies, although geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt traditional trade flows. Domestic demand remains cautious, with industrial spice grinders favouring hand-to-mouth purchases over bulk procurement. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and farmer selling to generate cash ahead of the next sowing season have also limited price gains. India's jeera exports declined 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative exports during April to July fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes last year. Exports to Singapore surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes and shipments to Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes, but exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, highlighting weakness in a major destination. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices declined 0.69% to Rs 26,022.4. Technically, jeera is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest falling 2.46% to 9,150 contracts alongside a Rs 310 price decline. Support is placed at Rs 25,570, followed by Rs 24,960, while resistance is seen at Rs 26,760, above which prices could test Rs 27,340.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 24960-27340.

• Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rallied amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring sowing and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26022.4 Rupees dropped by 0.69 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views