Jeera trading range for the day is 23710-25550 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices extended gains yesterday, settling higher by 1.53% at 1,52,862, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions between the United States and NATO over Greenland. President Trump reiterated his determination to gain control of the Arctic island, refusing to rule out the use of force, which added to geopolitical risk premiums. Investor anxiety was further amplified by uncertainty surrounding the Supreme Court’s upcoming verdict on the legality of Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns over central bank independence. Additionally, a sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds has intensified fears over global fiscal sustainability, reinforcing the “debasement trade” as investors rotate away from fiat currencies and sovereign debt. Fundamental support remains robust, led by sustained central bank buying. Poland’s central bank approved plans to acquire an additional 150 tonnes of gold, while China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 14 months, lifting total purchases since late 2024 to around 42 tonnes. Gold holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tonnes, reflecting continued institutional accumulation. Major banks remain constructive, with Commerzbank, HSBC and UBS projecting gold prices toward $4,900–$5,000/oz in 2026, albeit with elevated volatility. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 6.51% as prices rose Rs 2,297. Gold has support at 1,50,135, below which it may test 1,47,405, while resistance is seen at 1,57,035, and a break above could open the path toward 1,61,205.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 147405-161205.
* Gold extended record run on safe-haven flows driven by escalating friction between the United States and NATO over Greenland.
* Polish central bank approves plan to buy 150 tons of gold
* Investors await the delayed US PCE inflation report later this week, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
Silver
Silver prices corrected yesterday, settling down by 1.6% at 3,18,492, largely on profit booking as some easing in immediate geopolitical risk reduced the need for aggressive defensive positioning. Recent sharp gains had left the market vulnerable to consolidation. However, the downside remained limited due to persistent physical tightness and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. US President Donald Trump’s renewed push to acquire Greenland, and his refusal to rule out the use of force, continues to keep underlying safe-haven interest alive, with Europe weighing possible countermeasures. Fundamentally, silver continues to be supported by structural deficits. The global market has now recorded four consecutive years of supply shortfall, with demand consistently outpacing mine and scrap supply. As of end-December 2025, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,818 tonnes, up 2.3% month-on-month, yet inventories remain historically tight relative to consumption. Chinese stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, following record exports of over 660 tonnes in October, highlighting regional shortages and liquidity stress outside the US and UK. Outlook projections remain constructive, with Commerzbank targeting $95/oz by end-2026, while HSBC expects elevated but volatile prices amid strong institutional investment demand despite softer industrial usage. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.91% as prices fell Rs 5,180. Silver has support at 3,10,500, below which it may test 3,02,500, while resistance is seen at 3,31,010, and a break above could extend gains toward 3,43,520.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 302500-343520.
* Silver slipped on profit booking as the easing of geopolitical risk reduced demand for aggressive defensive positioning.
* From January 1, China implemented a new licensing regime for silver exports, restricting eligibility to producers with a minimum output of 80 t/y.
* Saudi Central Bank bought silver ETFs, including the iShares Silver Trust and the Global X Silver Miners ETF, with combined holdings exceeding $40-million.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices settled higher by 0.94% at 5,569, as markets reacted to a combination of supply-side disruptions, demand optimism, and geopolitical risks. Prices found support after a temporary shutdown at two major oil fields in Kazakhstan, raising near-term supply concerns. Sentiment was further influenced by renewed geopolitical tension linked to U.S. tariff threats associated with its bid to gain control of Greenland. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 upward to 930,000 bpd from 860,000 bpd, citing an improving macroeconomic outlook and easing tariff-related anxieties. Although global supply is still expected to exceed demand, the projected surplus has narrowed, reflecting tighter balances. On the U.S. front, the Energy Information Administration projected crude output to peak in 2025 and gradually ease through 2027, while petroleum demand is expected to remain stable in the near term. China provided a demand boost, with December crude imports rising 17% year-on-year and full-year 2025 imports up 4.4%, reaching record daily levels. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.29% alongside a Rs 52 price gain. Crude oil has immediate support at 5,481; a break below could test 5,392. On the upside, resistance is seen at 5,633, and a move above this level could push prices toward 5,696.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5392-5696.
* Crude oil prices rose as investors assessed a temporary shutdown at two large fields in Kazakhstan.
* OPEC+ producer Kazakhstan halted output at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields due to power distribution issues.
* IEA revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts, suggesting a slightly narrower surplus for the market this year.
Natural gas
Natural gas prices surged sharply, settling up by 25.04% at 438.9, as weather forecasts shifted decisively colder across the United States. Updated outlooks point to a deep and widespread Arctic freeze over the coming weeks, with average temperatures expected to run at least 8°F below normal across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of New England. Sub-freezing conditions are also projected to extend deep into Texas and the southern states, raising the risk of ice storms, heavy snowfall, and significant production disruptions. Potential freeze-offs of up to 10 billion cubic feet per day in Appalachia, alongside risks in the Permian and Haynesville basins, could rapidly tighten supply, while gas flows have already been diverted from LNG export facilities to meet rising domestic heating demand. On the storage front, U.S. utilities withdrew 71 bcf of natural gas in the week ended January 9, well below market expectations and the five-year average, leaving inventories at 3.185 tcf, modestly above both last year’s level and seasonal norms. Technically, the market is witnessing aggressive short covering, with open interest plunging 24.07% alongside a sharp price rise of Rs 87.9. Natural gas is now supported at 377.5, with a break below opening downside risk toward 316. On the upside, resistance is seen at 478.2, and a move above this level could trigger a further rally toward 517.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 316-517.4.
* Natural gas rose as weather forecasts shifted sharply colder.
* Forecasts over the long US holiday weekend turned much colder, calling for a deep and widespread Arctic freeze.
* The colder outlook points to sustained heating demand and rising risks of production losses from freeze offs, potentially erasing the recent storage surplus.
Copper
Copper prices eased modestly, settling down by 0.45% at 1279.85, as near-term signs of softening demand briefly outweighed persistent concerns over tightening global supply. Sentiment was pressured after the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised margin requirements on select copper contracts and as the Yangshan copper premium slid to $22 per ton, its lowest level in nearly 18 months, signaling weaker import appetite. Adding to demand-side caution, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange–monitored warehouses rose 18.3% from last week, while China exported 96,000 tons of refined copper in December, sharply lower than November but still well above year-ago levels. Despite this, the broader supply backdrop remains constrained. Copper production declined at several key global mines, with Peru’s output falling 11.2% year-on-year in November and Chilean major Codelco reporting a 3% annual drop. Output at BHP’s Escondida mine also fell sharply, reinforcing concerns over medium-term supply deficits. Meanwhile, copper availability outside the U.S. continues to tighten as metal flows into Comex warehouses ahead of potential U.S. tariffs, draining LME stocks to six-month lows and lifting nearby spreads. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 11.33% alongside a Rs 5.8 price drop. Copper has immediate support at 1268.1, with further downside risk toward 1256.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1299.4, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 1319.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1256.4-1319.
* Copper prices fell as signs of softening demand momentarily outweighed lingering concerns of tight supply.
* Shanghai Futures Exchange raised margin requirements for some copper contracts.
* The Yangshan copper premium fell to $22 a ton, the lowest in almost 18 months.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged higher, settling up by 0.18% at 311.9, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and better-than-expected economic data from China. The dollar index softened after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on imports from eight European nations, weighing on the greenback and lending marginal support to base metals. Sentiment also improved after China’s industrial output rose 5.2% year-on-year in December, outperforming expectations, while fourth-quarter GDP growth came in slightly above forecasts. However, upside in zinc remained limited as broader concerns over China’s underlying demand outlook persisted amid mixed macro indicators. On the supply side, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange–monitored warehouses rose 3.3% from last week, signaling adequate near-term availability. The LME cash zinc contract continued to trade at a discount of $14 per ton to the three-month contract, reflecting comfortable spot supply. At the same time, several Chinese mines are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which could temporarily tighten concentrate supply, including a southwest China mine expected to cut output by around 700 tons of metal content. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 12.85% while prices gained modestly. Zinc has support at 310.3, with further downside seen at 308.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at 314.2, and a break above this level could see prices testing 316.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 308.7-316.5.
* Zinc gains on a weaker dollar and after data from China came in better than expected.
* Data showing China's industrial output rose 5.2% in December from a year earlier, faster than in November and higher than expected.
* Several Chinese miners are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce production and tighten concentrate availability.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices edged marginally higher, settling up by 0.1% at 315.05, supported by supply-side concerns after China reached the government-mandated production capacity ceiling. Sentiment was underpinned by signs of a structurally tight global market, even as near-term inventory data appeared mixed. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year-on-year in December to 6.296 million tonnes. However, the global market remained in deficit, with primary aluminium supply falling short of demand by 108,700 tonnes in October. For the first ten months of the year, the cumulative shortfall stood at 955,500 tonnes, as consumption of 62.17 million tonnes exceeded production of 61.22 million tonnes. mports of unwrought aluminium and products also rose 7.1% year-on-year in December to 320,000 tonnes, reflecting steady demand. Policy support added to optimism, with China’s central bank signaling reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in 2026 to support growth. On the supply front, disruptions persisted globally due to high energy costs, bauxite shortages, and operational issues in countries such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, while Chinese smelter projects in Indonesia faced regulatory and cost challenges. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 13.07% as prices firmed slightly. Aluminium is supported at 313.8, with further downside at 312.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at 317.1, and a break above this level could open the way toward 319.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 312.5-319.1.
* Aluminium gains supported by supply concerns as China hit the government's production capacity ceiling.
* China aluminium production up 3.0 % to 3.87 mln metric tons in Dec – stats bureau
* China December aluminium imports rise 7% y/y, customs data shows
Turmeric
Turmeric prices moved higher yesterday, settling up by 0.94% at 17,948, supported by arrivals remaining below normal and sustained domestic as well as international demand. Reduced stocks with both farmers and stockists have provided a strong base to prices ahead of new crop arrivals. Supply-side concerns persist as yields in key producing states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been adversely affected by excessive rains. Unseasonal rainfall during August–September led to waterlogging and disease issues, impacting nearly 15% of the crop area in parts of Marathwada, resulting in estimated yield losses of 15–20% in affected pockets. However, upside remains capped due to higher acreage. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. All-India dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the net increase in availability. Maharashtra’s dried output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags, while other states together may produce around 40 lakh bags. Export prospects remain supportive, with Apr–Oct 2025 exports rising 2.05% year-on-year, despite month-on-month softness in October. Lower imports have also tightened domestic supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 0.44% as prices gained ?168. Support is seen at 17,708, below which prices may test 17,466, while resistance is placed at 18,146, and a breakout could push prices toward 18,342.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17466-18342.
* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16858.05 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices strengthened yesterday, settling up by 2.26% at 24,870, supported by weather-related issues and delayed sowing, particularly in Gujarat, where field conditions remain unprepared due to uneven rainfall. Gujarat is witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, with acreage reported at 3,98,438 hectares, down sharply by 16.31% from last year. Arrivals at the key Unjha market remain very low, and premium-quality cumin continues to command higher prices, lending near-term support to the market. However, upside appears limited amid comfortable overall supplies and subdued export interest. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown marginal improvement but remains highly price-sensitive. With the retail season largely over and foreign buying activity still muted, current export requirements are being met from existing stocks. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded before season-end, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, reflecting reduced sowing area. Export data remains weak, with Apr–Oct 2025 shipments down 13.21% year-on-year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest marginally lower by 0.05% as prices rose Rs 550. Support is seen at 24,290, below which prices may test 23,710, while resistance stands at 25,210, and a breakout could push prices toward 25,550.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23710-25550.
* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.
* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476097 hectares.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23273.85 Rupees dropped by -0.12 percent.
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