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Gold

Gold prices surged by 0.93% to settle at 68331, buoyed by indications of a slowing U.S. inflation trend, reigniting expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. The release of data showcasing a moderation in U.S. prices for February kept the possibility of a rate cut on the table, further supported by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's affirmation that the inflation data aligned with the central bank's objectives. This environment of growing rate cut expectations, coupled with safe-haven demand and central bank purchases amid geopolitical tensions, propelled gold prices upwards by more than 9% year-to-date. The sustained rally in domestic gold prices in India disrupted the traditional wedding season demand, as dealers were compelled to offer heavy discounts due to ample scrap supplies. India's gold imports are anticipated to plummet by over 90% in March compared to February, reaching the lowest levels since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Banks have curtailed imports in response to weakened demand following record-high prices, with anticipated imports of 10 to 11 metric tons, marking a stark decline from the 110 metric tons in February 2024. From a technical standpoint, the gold market witnessed fresh buying momentum, with open interest increasing by 0.23% to settle at 23542, accompanied by a significant price uptick of 630 rupees. Gold is currently finding support at 67835, with potential downside targets at 67345 levels. Conversely, resistance is likely to be encountered at 68870, with a move above indicating a possible test of 69415.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 67345-69415.
* Gold rises on U.S. inflation slowdown, fuels expectations of June fed rate cut
* US inflation 'along lines of what we would like to see' – Powell
* A sustained record rally in domestic gold prices crippled the typical busy wedding season demand in India

Silver

Silver prices climbed by 0.64% to settle at 75532, fueled by growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Fed Chair Powell's remarks on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for February indicated that while it aligned with expectations, policymakers are cautious and do not feel pressured to hastily reduce borrowing costs. Powell emphasized the Fed's patience in waiting for more confidence before considering rate cuts, suggesting a nuanced approach to monetary policy. Despite a slight revision lower in the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March 2024, from 52.5 to 51.9, manufacturing production expanded at its fastest rate in 22 months, signaling improving economic conditions and market demand. Traders are currently pricing in a 63% chance of a rate cut by the US central bank in June, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. From a technical standpoint, the silver market indicates fresh buying momentum, with a 1.78% increase in open interest to 22,984 contracts. Silver is currently supported at 74920, with further support at 74310 levels, while resistance is expected at 76230, with potential upside testing at 76930. This technical analysis suggests a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market, supported by increased buying interest and positive external factors such as expectations of a Fed rate cut. Silver continues to be influenced by macroeconomic indicators and central bank policies, with traders closely monitoring developments for further price direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 74310-76930.
* Silver gains on growing expectation that Fed could deliver first interest rate cut in June.
* Fed’s Powell reiterates fed in no hurry to cut rates
* The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 51.9 in March 2024 from a preliminary of 52.5

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 1.27% to settle at 6997, buoyed by a confluence of factors contributing to expectations of tighter supply and improving demand outlooks. OPEC+ members' commitment to extending production cuts until the end of June aimed at tightening crude supply during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's announcement that Russian oil companies would focus on reducing output rather than exports in the second quarter further supported the sentiment of supply constraints. Furthermore, drone attacks on Russian refineries amid geopolitical tensions in Ukraine are anticipated to curtail Russia's fuel exports, contributing to supply disruptions. On the demand side, upbeat Chinese manufacturing data boosted confidence in improving demand outlooks. Moreover, in Europe, oil demand exceeded expectations, rising by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year in February, contrasting with forecasts of a contraction in 2024, as reported by Goldman Sachs. Notably, crude oil production in the United States, the world's largest producer, experienced a 6% decline in January from the previous month's record high due to adverse weather conditions, indicating potential support for prices. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed fresh buying momentum, with a significant increase in open interest by 26.48% to settle at 7543 contracts. Crude oil is currently supported at 6911, with further support at 6825 levels, while resistance is anticipated at 7064, with potential upside testing at 7131.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6825-7131.
* Crude oil prices rise amid OPEC+ cuts and Russian refineries attacks
* Russia’s Novak plans to focus on reducing output rather than exports in Q2 to spread production cuts.
* Drone attacks from Ukraine have knocked out Russian refineries, reducing Russia's fuel exports.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged by 5.05% to settle at 153.9 amid declining output and revised forecasts indicating higher demand expectations for the upcoming week. Despite initial forecasts suggesting reduced demand for the current week, the market rallied on expectations of increased demand in the following week. This price surge occurred despite mild weather projections through mid-April, ample gas reserves, and reduced gas flow to LNG export plants due to ongoing repairs at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas. Speculators reacted to market dynamics by reducing their net short futures and options positions for the fifth consecutive week, reaching their lowest levels since late January. Output in the Lower 48 U.S. states witnessed a notable decline of around 6% over the past month, attributed to delayed well completions and reduced drilling activities by energy firms like EQT and Chesapeake Energy. LSEG reported a decrease in gas output to an average of 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, down from 104.8 bcfd in February. Meteorologists forecasted predominantly warmer-than-normal weather across the Lower 48 through mid-April, with intermittent cold days expected from April 3-6. Consequently, LSEG projected a decline in gas demand from 104.0 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week, aligning with the anticipated seasonal shift in weather patterns. From a technical standpoint, the market experienced short covering, indicated by a significant drop in open interest by -7.23% to settle at 53383, coupled with a price increase of 7.4 rupees. Natural gas is currently finding support at 146.5, with a potential test of 139.2 levels below that. On the upside, resistance is likely to be encountered at 158.2, with a move above indicating a possible test of 162.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 139.2-162.6.
* Natural gas rose on a continuing decline in output and forecasts for more demand
* Speculators cut their net short futures and options positions for the fifth week in a row
* Energy firms like EQT and Chesapeake Energy delayed well completions and reduced drilling activities.

Copper

Copper prices closed higher by 0.69% at 765.9, driven by stronger-than-expected economic data from China, which countered concerns about weakening demand from the world's largest consumer of copper. Both the official and Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China indicated expansion in factory activity for March, surpassing market forecasts and suggesting potential traction in the manufacturing sector despite previous headwinds. Additionally, the outlook for lower supply due to joint output cuts among Chinese copper smelters, amid decreased ore supplies, further supported prices. However, despite these positive factors, muted bidding by factories led to a surge in copper stocks by 5,000 tonnes to 290.3 thousand tonnes, marking an over 800% increase since the beginning of the year. The Yangshan copper premium was anticipated to conclude the month significantly lower, reflecting reduced demand for physical copper from factories. Furthermore, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported an 84,000 metric tons surplus in the global refined copper market for January, compared to a 27,000 metric tons surplus in December. World refined copper output reached 2.37 million metric tons in January, while consumption stood at 2.29 million metric tons. Adjusted for changes in inventory in Chinese bonded warehouses, the surplus in January amounted to 84,000 metric tons, highlighting the prevailing surplus conditions in the market. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying momentum, with a slight increase in open interest by 0.6% to settle at 4379 contracts. Copper is currently supported at 762.3, with further support at 758.7 levels, while resistance is likely to be encountered at 769, with potential upside testing at 772.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 758.7-772.1.
* Copper rose amid stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
* Both the official and Caixin PMIs in China pointed to an expansion in factory activity during March.
*  Prices also remained supported by the outlook of lower supply as Chinese copper smelters moved closer to a joint output cut amid lower ore supplies.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged up by 0.35% to settle at 217.7, fueled by a significant drop in the output of Chinese smelters and tight zinc concentrate raw material supply following the holiday period. This led some companies to delay the resumption of production, contributing to a slight increase in domestic refined zinc production in March 2024. Despite the year-on-year decrease, production saw a modest uptick in March, attributed to increased production days and the recovery of production in certain regions of China. The market sentiment received a boost as Federal Reserve officials issued hawkish remarks, denting expectations of interest rate cuts amidst persistent inflation concerns. Consequently, investor sentiment recovered, further supporting zinc prices. However, supply disruptions also played a role in shaping market dynamics, with Glencore Plc halting operations at its McArthur River zinc and lead mine in Australia due to heavy rainfall, and Peruvian miner Volcan suspending three mines as it updates operating permits for its Rumichaca tailings dam. Additionally, delays in the start of the major Russian zinc mine Ozernoye and the suspension of Europe's largest zinc mine Tara contributed to a decrease in mined zinc supply, further impacting market dynamics. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with a drop in open interest by -0.78% to settle at 3314, alongside a modest price increase of 0.75 rupees. Zinc is currently finding support at 216.9, with potential downside targets at 216.1 levels. Conversely, resistance is likely to be encountered at 218.5, with a move above indicating a possible test of 219.3.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 216.1-219.3.
* Zinc gains as the output of China's smelters dropped significantly.
* Domestic refined zinc production in March 2024 likely to decrease 8.78% year-on-year.
* Global zinc market moved to a surplus of 58,700 metric tons in January - ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.41% to settle at 209.55 amid concerns over a sluggish recovery in production in China's Yunnan province. The market also reacted to macroeconomic factors, including growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which contributed to an overall lift in the commodity market sentiment. However, there are anticipations of increased production in May, although uncertainties stemming from the drought situation in Yunnan could pose challenges. On the demand side, the traditional peak season and ongoing policy efforts to stimulate demand have bolstered operating rates across various processing sectors. Despite closures or reductions in production by downstream aluminum processing companies during the Chinese New Year holidays in February, domestic aluminium smelters maintained steady operations. However, an aluminium smelter in Inner Mongolia faced production disruptions due to a power outage, which could affect output in March. In the global market, a Japanese aluminium buyer agreed to a premium of $145 per metric ton over the benchmark price for shipments in April to June, marking a 61% increase from the previous quarter. This premium, while lower than initial offers, still reflects a significant uptick and indicates tightening supply conditions. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying activity, with a slight increase in open interest by 0.51% to settle at 3538 contracts. Aluminium is currently supported at 209, with further support at 208.2 levels, while resistance is anticipated at 210.1, with potential upside testing at 210.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208.2-210.4.
* Aluminium gains over concerns over slow recovery in production in China's Yunnan.
* There are expectations for an increase in production in May, but the drought situation in Yunnan may bring uncertainty.
* China's aluminium output was 3.333 million mt in February, up 7.81% YoY.

Cotton

Cotton candy prices saw a notable increase of 0.84%, settling at 62520, driven by federal reports indicating lower-than-expected U.S. planting estimates and firm export sales for the natural fiber. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) and the Cotton Crop Production Committee (CCPC) revised their production estimates upwards for the current season, reflecting a positive outlook for cotton production. However, ICE prices dropped amidst increased supply expectations and lower demand from mills, exerting some downward pressure on the market. The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2023/24 showed higher production, consumption, and trade, with lower ending stocks. Despite reduced production estimates in the U.S. and Argentina, India's increased crop offset these declines, leading to a marginal increase in world production. Higher consumption in China and India, coupled with increased imports by China, contributed to higher global consumption and trade. However, ending stocks saw a marginal decrease, indicating a relatively balanced market outlook. Meanwhile, the Southern India Mills' Association (SIMA) advised textile mills against panic buying of cotton, highlighting recent price hikes and urging caution amidst fast-approaching international prices. Capacity utilization at mills increased, with a significant portion already contracted for exports, suggesting a steady demand outlook. From a technical perspective, the cotton candy market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 0.7% to settle at 430, accompanied by a significant price increase of 520 rupees. Cotton candy is currently finding support at 62340, with potential downside targets at 62170 levels. Conversely, resistance is likely to be encountered at 62640, with a move above indicating a possible test of 62770.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 62170-62770.
* Cotton gains amid lower-than-expected U.S. planting estimates and firm export sales.
* CCPC raised crop production for the current season to 323.11 lakh bales
* Cotton Australia raised its estimate for Australian production this year to "at least" 4.5 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29071.7 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a significant decline of -3.51%, settling at 16536, primarily due to profit booking after a period of sustained positive momentum supported by below-normal supplies and active festive demand. Despite the recent downturn, prevailing supply tightness is expected to continue attracting stockists to buy turmeric at dips in prices. The seasonality of turmeric suggests higher prices during March, driven by festive buying, and with a series of festivals ahead and the commencement of the wedding season, demand is likely to remain robust in the coming months. Production is forecasted to drop by about 14% year-on-year due to lower cultivation area and tumbling yield, with estimates ranging between 9.2-9.5 lakh tonnes. This reduction in production is contributing to the overall supply tightness in the market. However, turmeric exports during April-January 2024 witnessed a decline of 3.52% compared to the same period in the previous year, while imports decreased by 22.34%. Despite fluctuations in trade volumes, the overall trend suggests a decline in both exports and imports, impacting market dynamics. In terms of technical analysis, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a significant drop in open interest by -7.07% to settle at 12560 contracts. Turmeric is currently finding support at 16190, with further support at 15844 levels, while resistance is likely to be encountered at 17016, with potential upside testing at 17496. However, the fundamental factors such as tight supplies and upcoming demand from festivals and weddings are expected to continue supporting the market in the medium term.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15844-17496.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported amid below normal supplies
* Festivals ahead in coming months and commencement of wedding season demand is likely to keep buyers engage.
* Production is likely to be dropped by about 14% Y-o-Y due to lower area under turmeric.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16391.3 Rupees dropped by -1.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices experienced a decline of -0.57%, settling at 23465, driven primarily by the looming pressure of increased arrivals in the market. With daily arrivals ranging between 10000 to 12000 bags in Rajkot Mandi, the market faces an imbalance as supply surpasses demand. New arrivals have been reported in Gujarat and Rajasthan, contributing to the overall increase in production. In Gujarat alone, cumin production is estimated to reach a record 4.08 lakh tonnes, while Rajasthan also witnessed a significant surge in production by 53%. The rise in production can be attributed to favorable weather conditions and a substantial increase in sowing area in major cumin-producing regions of India. This surge in production has led to a bearish sentiment in the market, with trade analysts anticipating a substantial increase in cumin exports, expected to reach about 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024. However, despite the increase in production and anticipated rise in exports, jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2024 dropped by 25.33% compared to the same period in the previous year. This decline in exports is attributed to various factors, including volatile domestic prices and fluctuations in international cumin prices. From a technical standpoint, the jeera market is witnessing long liquidation, with a significant drop in open interest by -7.88% to settle at 2454, coupled with a decline in prices by -135 rupees. Jeera is currently finding support at 23180, with potential downside targets at 22890 levels. Conversely, resistance is likely to be encountered at 23680, with a move above indicating a possible test of 23890.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22890-23890.
* Jeera dropped as there is a possibility of further increase in arrivals pressure in the market.
* There will be a huge increase in cumin exports, which will reach about 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024.
*  New arrivals have started in Gujarat since last 20-25 days and new arrivals have started in Rajasthan also since last 15 days.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25906.7 Rupees dropped by -0.55 percent.

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