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Gold

Gold experienced a decline of -0.69% to settle at 72523 amid reduced safe-haven demand fueled by optimism that Israel would show restraint in response to Iran's missile attack. This sentiment shift was further supported by United States President Joe Biden's statement indicating non-support for a counterattack from Israel on Iran. Additionally, uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts lessened, as top officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, emphasized the need for continued restrictive monetary policy until convinced of inflation's return to the target rate of 2%. The receding Fed rate cut expectations for upcoming meetings, combined with diminished concerns over escalating Iran-Israel tensions, exerted pressure on Gold prices. Stronger-than-expected monthly Retail Sales data for March further bolstered this trend, leading to higher bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. Robust consumer spending, as evidenced by the Retail Sales growth of 0.7% in March, significantly above expectations, underscores the potential for sustained inflationary pressures. Despite these factors, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly emphasized the lack of urgency in reducing interest rates, highlighting the ongoing work needed to ensure inflation aligns with the desired target. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -2.52% drop in open interest to settle at 21958, coupled with a decrease in prices by -506 rupees. Currently, Gold finds support at 72170, with a potential downside test at 71815. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 73090, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing at 73655. Traders should closely monitor these levels amidst evolving geopolitical dynamics and central bank policy outlooks for Gold's future trajectory.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 71815-73655.
* Gold dropped amid optimism Israel will show restraint in its response to Iran's recent missile attack.
* Fed’s Powell backed away from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be cut
* Fed rate cut bets for June and July meetings and reduced fears of Iran-Israel tensions pressure Gold.

Silver

Silver prices exhibited a marginal decline of -0.01% yesterday, settling at 83499. This modest dip occurred as fading hopes of U.S. rate cuts outweighed gains driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The prospect of expanded sanctions against Iran by both the U.S. and the European Union, coupled with Israel's contemplation of counterattack options, fueled uncertainty in the region. However, this geopolitical turmoil was offset by the dollar's and Treasury yields' consolidation following warnings from several Federal Reserve officials regarding prolonged inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's caution about the potential delay of rate cuts until later this year due to persistently elevated inflation sentiments echoed sentiments expressed by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Manufacturing activity in the New York region continued to display weakness, with the Empire State manufacturing survey for April coming in at -14.3, worse than expectations. On a positive note, U.S. retail sales surged by 0.7% in March, following a revised increase of 0.9% in February, as reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. From a technical perspective, the silver market witnessed long liquidation, with a -1.87% drop in open interest to settle at 24699 contracts. Presently, silver finds support at 83030, with potential downside towards 82560 levels. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 84145, with a breakout possibly leading to a test of 84790.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 82560-84790.
* Silver dropped as pressure from fading U.S. rate cut hopes overshadowed gains from safe haven demand
* Dollar consolidate gains due to Fed officials' warnings of longer inflation flight.
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warns elevated inflation will delay rate cuts.

Crude oil

Crude oil faced a significant downturn, settling down by -2.82% at 6934, primarily driven by concerns surrounding higher US commercial inventories and weakening economic data from China, alongside diminished prospects of interest rate cuts, which collectively dampened global demand sentiment. The EIA Petroleum Status Report revealed a notable increase of 2.735 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending April 12, 2024, surpassing market expectations and signaling potential oversupply concerns. Despite decreases in gasoline and distillate stockpiles, the overall crude stockpile buildup contributed to market apprehensions. Similarly, data from the API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin echoed the trend of rising crude oil inventories, marking the second consecutive week of increases and the largest weekly gains in four weeks, further exacerbating supply-side worries. The IEA added to the bearish sentiment by trimming its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth, citing lower consumption in OECD countries and a slowdown in factory activity. The IEA's downward revision underscores ongoing challenges to global oil demand recovery, particularly in the face of lingering uncertainties surrounding the pandemic's impact on economic activity. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a substantial -30.63% drop in open interest to settle at 4452, accompanied by a significant price decline of -201 rupees. Currently, Crude oil finds support at 6859, with a potential downside test at 6783. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 7063, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing at 7191. Traders should remain cautious amidst the prevailing bearish sentiment and monitor key support and resistance levels for potential trading opportunities.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6783-7191.
* Crude oil dropped as demand worries outweigh Mid East supply risks
* Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 2.735 million barrels – EIA
* Crude oil stocks in the US increased by 4.090 million barrels  - API

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged up by 1.13% yesterday, settling at 142.8, as forecasts for limited feed gas demand and milder weather tempered upside momentum. Despite concerns about a significant storage surplus and lower demand projections over the next two weeks, the lack of substantial price movement persisted. This occurred even as production decreased due to reduced drilling activities following a price slump in February and March, and with forecasts suggesting colder weather ahead. U.S. drillers continued to curtail gas rig operations, with the number of active rigs dropping to 109, the lowest since January 2022. Furthermore, gas output in the Lower 48 states declined to 98.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March, according to data from financial firm LSEG. Despite the decline, gas demand, including exports, was forecasted to decrease from 99.3 bcfd this week to 94.4 bcfd next week due to warming weather, before rebounding to 98.1 bcfd in two weeks as cooler temperatures set in. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with a drop in open interest by -1.62% to settle at 61242 contracts. Natural gas finds support at 140.2, with potential downside towards 137.7 levels. Conversely, resistance is expected at 144.6, with a breakout potentially leading to a test of 146.5.In summary, Natural gas prices navigated through a complex landscape influenced by supply-demand dynamics, weather forecasts, and production trends. Investors will likely closely monitor upcoming weather patterns and production data for further insights into the trajectory of natural gas prices.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 137.7-146.5.
* Natural gas gains on low level recovery after prices dropped on worries about a huge storage surplus.
* Pressure also seen amid forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* U.S. drillers cut the number of gas rigs operating by one to 109, their lowest since January 2022


Copper

Copper closed higher by 0.68% at 829.8, driven by a surge in unwrought copper imports in China, indicating a robust industrial activity and improved demand in the world's largest consumer of the metal. This uptick in demand is further supported by Chile's state-run copper miner Codelco's efforts to enhance production, with expectations to surpass its 2023 output despite facing challenges in the previous quarter. Antofagasta's CEO highlighted the growing demand for copper, driven by its essential role in electric vehicles, solar panels, and other elements crucial for the energy transition. This positive outlook for copper demand, coupled with supply constraints, could potentially drive prices higher in 2024. However, recent Western sanctions on Russian metals injected volatility into commodity markets, with the US and UK banning deliveries of certain Russian metal supplies, aiming to limit Russia's revenues funding its military operations in Ukraine. Such geopolitical developments could influence copper prices in the near term. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with a notable drop in open interest by -5.69% to settle at 3696, while prices rose by 5.6 rupees. Currently, Copper finds support at 826.9, with a potential downside test at 823.8. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 834, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing at 838. Traders should monitor both fundamental factors driving demand and supply dynamics, as well as geopolitical developments, to navigate potential price fluctuations in the copper market.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 823.8-838.
* Copper rose as industrial activity picked up and demand improved.
* Unwrought copper imports in China, surged by 16% to 474,000 tonnes in March
* Fitch revises outlooks for Chinese state banks to negative from stable.

Zinc

Zinc prices surged by 2.04% yesterday, settling at 247.9, benefitting from a weaker U.S. dollar which overshadowed concerns regarding demand from China, the top metals consumer. Although data indicated a notable increase in China's refined zinc production, sentiments were buoyed by positive signals from the Chinese and US manufacturing sectors, along with Germany's industrial output surpassing market expectations. China, a key player in the zinc market, exhibited robust factory activity, with a private survey indicating the fastest expansion in over a year, aligning with official readings. Similarly, the US manufacturing sector experienced growth for the first time in one-and-a-half years, further bolstering market confidence. Additionally, a report from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasted a slight global production increase in zinc mine output, mainly driven by China, India, Mongolia, Peru, and Russia. Despite expectations of increased global refined zinc output, the ILZSG report highlighted a surplus in the refined zinc market, with global demand projected to grow by 2.5% year on year. Notably, China's demand was anticipated to grow by 1.2% year on year. Technically, the zinc market witnessed fresh buying momentum, with open interest increasing by 3.77% to settle at 2668 contracts. Presently, zinc finds support at 244.5, with potential downside towards 240.9 levels. Conversely, resistance is expected at 250.6, with a breakout possibly leading to a test of 253.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 240.9-253.1.
* Zinc gains amid support from a weaker U.S. dollar offset concerns about demand from China.
* The global refined zinc output was forecasted to increase by 3.3% year on year to 14.3 million tons
* China's factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in over a year in March


Aluminium

Aluminium prices surged by 1.23% to settle at 234.85 as the US and UK implemented new sanctions on Russian metals, aiming to curb Russia's revenue from metal exports supporting its military operations in Ukraine. The ban on Russian metal supplies, including aluminium, copper, and nickel, adds pressure to global commodity markets, although analysts warn it may not fully deter Russian sales and could flood the market with old stocks, introducing more uncertainty. Meanwhile, China's aluminium output in March saw a notable increase of 4.19% year-on-year, reaching 3.555 million metric tons. The resumption of production post-Chinese New Year holidays contributed to this uptick, with aluminium smelters returning to normal operations. Additionally, the share of aluminium liquid output rose, signaling a healthy production trend. Anticipation of further production increases in April, coupled with Goldman Sachs' upward revision of China's economic growth forecast to 5.0%, adds bullish momentum to aluminium demand outlook. >From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, evidenced by a drop in open interest by -5.02% to settle at 2724, alongside a price increase of 2.85 rupees. Currently, Aluminium finds support at 233, with a potential downside test at 231.1. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 236.7, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing at 238.5. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments, especially regarding the impact of sanctions on Russian metal exports, as well as domestic production trends in China, to gauge future price movements in the aluminium market.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 231.1-238.5.
* Aluminium prices rise following new sanctions on Russian metals
* China's aluminium output was 3.555 million mt in March, up 4.19% YoY.
* The first batch of production resumption may be completed in mid-April, boosting production in April

Cotton

Cotton candy prices experienced a decline of -1.61% yesterday, settling at 57600, primarily due to prospects of improved crop yields in countries like Australia. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected increases in cotton-producing areas, production, consumption, and trade for the upcoming 2024-25 season. Despite the positive outlook, increased supply expectations and lower demand from mills led to a drop in ICE prices. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its cotton production estimates upwards for the current season to 309.70 lakh bales, reflecting an increase from previous estimations. Similarly, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) raised its crop production estimates, indicating a potential oversupply scenario. For the marketing year 2024/25, India's cotton production is estimated to decrease by two percent due to farmers shifting acreage to higher return crops. However, mill consumption is expected to rise, driven by improved demand for yarn and textiles in major international markets. Additionally, China's cotton imports are forecasted to increase on higher domestic and international demand for textile and apparel products. In the spot market, prices in Rajkot ended lower at 28375.8 Rupees, dropping by -0.38 percent. Technically, the cotton candy market observed long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by -1.45% to settle at 407 contracts. Presently, cotton candy finds support at 57300, with potential downside towards 56990 levels. Conversely, resistance is expected at 58120, with a breakout possibly leading to a test of 58630. Investors will closely monitor further developments in crop yields and global demand patterns for insights into future price movements.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56990-58630.
* Cotton prices dropped amid prospects of a better crop.
* The ICAC's projections for 2024-25 suggest that the cotton-producing area may increase by 3 per cent from the 2023-24 acreage
* For 2024/25 China’s cotton imports are forecast at 2.4 million metric tons
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28375.8 Rupees dropped by -0.38 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged significantly by 5.99% to settle at 17308, primarily fueled by active festive demand coupled with below-normal supplies in the market. However, this upward momentum is expected to face limitations as new arrivals are anticipated from the Marathwada region in Maharashtra, as indicated by reports of new crop supplies in various spot markets. The influx of new arrivals, such as 5,400 bags in Nanded, 10,500 bags in Nizamabad, and 18,500 bags in Erode, signals an increase in supply compared to the previous week, exerting pressure on prices. Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare's estimate of turmeric production for 2023-24 at 10.74 lakh tonnes reflects a decline from the previous year's production, contributing to supply dynamics. Moreover, while turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2024 saw a slight decline compared to the previous year, imports during the same period witnessed a notable decrease. This indicates a relatively balanced trade scenario, albeit with slight fluctuations in volumes. From a technical standpoint, the market observed fresh buying interest, with a notable increase in open interest by 3.11% to settle at 17730, accompanied by a substantial price increase of 978 rupees. Currently, Turmeric finds support at 16704, with a potential downside test at 16098. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 17612, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing at 17914.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16098-17914.
* Turmeric gains amid below normal supplies and active festive demand.  
* New crop supply has increased by over 25% in parts of Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh
* The Ministry of Agriculture first advance estimate for turmeric production in 2023-24 is estimated at 10.74 lakh tonnes
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16323.05 Rupees gained by 2.02 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices surged by 1.08% yesterday, settling at 21900, driven by global buyers' preference for Indian jeera amidst tightening global supplies. However, the upside was capped due to concerns about increasing arrivals in the market, with daily arrivals of 10000 to 12000 bags in Rajkot Mandi surpassing demand. New arrivals have commenced in Gujarat and Rajasthan, contributing to market pressure. The increase in sowing areas in key jeera-producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, coupled with favorable weather conditions, resulted in a significant rise in production. Gujarat's cumin production is estimated to reach a new record of 4.08 lakh tonnes, doubling compared to the previous year. Similarly, Rajasthan witnessed a 53% increase in cumin production. This surge in production is expected to lead to a substantial increase in cumin exports, estimated to reach 14-15 thousand tonnes by February 2024. However, despite the anticipation of increased exports, jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2024 experienced a decline of 25.33% compared to the same period in the previous year. Nevertheless, January 2024 saw a rise in exports compared to both December 2023 and January 2023, indicating some recovery in export volumes. In the spot market, prices in Unjha ended higher at 23032.8 Rupees, gaining 0.78 percent. Technically, the jeera market observed fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 1.62% to settle at 2826 contracts. Presently, jeera finds support at 21490, with potential downside towards 21070 levels. Conversely, resistance is expected at 22160, with a breakout possibly leading to a test of 22410.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21070-22410.
* Jeera gains as global buyers preferred Indian jeera with tightening global supplies.
* There will be a huge increase in cumin exports, which will reach about 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024.
* New arrivals have started in Gujarat since last 20-25 days and new arrivals have started in Rajasthan also since last 15 days.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23032.8 Rupees gained by 0.78 percent.

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