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Gold

Gold futures settled lower by 0.32% at Rs142,915, as easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and persistent inflation worries influenced market sentiment. Investors monitored developments after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had requested additional time to finalize an agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reduce regional tensions. At the same time, market participants remained cautious ahead of a series of key U.S. labour market reports, including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment data, weekly jobless claims, and the nonfarm payrolls report, which are expected to provide further guidance on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Adding to the cautious tone, three Federal Reserve officials reiterated their preference for an immediate interest rate hike, citing concerns that inflation could remain above the central bank's 2% target without tighter monetary policy. Fundamental data presented a mixed picture for the bullion market. CFTC data showed COMEX gold speculative net long positions declined by 3,258 contracts to 120,328 contracts, indicating reduced bullish positioning. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand remained broadly stable at 1,268.9 metric tonnes during the second quarter of 2026 as strong central bank purchases offset ETF outflows. Central banks purchased 289 tonnes of gold during the quarter, led by Poland and China. Meanwhile, China's net gold imports through Hong Kong declined by more than 5% in June, while India's June-quarter gold imports dropped 23% year-on-year as higher import duties curbed demand despite continued investment interest. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.28% to 9,748 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs142,345, followed by Rs141,770, while resistance is seen at Rs143,710. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs144,500.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141770-144500.

* Gold edged lower as uncertainty over the war in ‌the Middle East and concerns over rising inflation lingered.

* Trump said that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked for time to complete a deal.

* Focus on a slew of U.S. jobs reports, including job openings data, the ADP employment report, weekly jobless claims and the nonfarm payrolls report.

Silver

Silver futures settled lower by 0.21% at Rs216,746, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand despite support from a weaker US dollar. Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, had urged a diplomatic resolution instead of military action while advocating the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also remained cautious ahead of a series of important U.S. labour market releases, culminating in the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide fresh direction for Federal Reserve policy. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, three policymakers dissented, arguing that delaying further tightening could require more aggressive action later. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Recent economic data reflected mixed signals for precious metals. The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026, below expectations, while the PCE price index declined 0.1% month-on-month in June, indicating softer inflationary pressures. Weekly jobless claims rose to 197,000, though they remained below market expectations. Meanwhile, CFTC data showed COMEX silver speculative net long positions declined by 1,614 contracts to 8,387 contracts, highlighting reduced bullish sentiment. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, while India's silver imports plunged sharply after tighter import restrictions and higher duties, reflecting weaker physical demand. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.12% to 13,272 contracts while prices declined, indicating fresh short build-up. Immediate support is placed at Rs213,880, followed by Rs211,020 if selling intensifies. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs219,500, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs222,260.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 211020-222260.

* Silver dropped as easing geopolitical tensions weighed on demand for safe-haven assets, offsetting support from a weaker US dollar.

* The CFTC reported that in the week ending July 28, COMEX silver speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,614 contracts to 8,387 contracts.

* Markets are currently pricing in about a 68% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September.

Crude oil

Crude oil futures plunged 5.77% to settle at Rs7,645, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sharply reduced the risk premium built into prices. Market sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that peace talks with Iran would resume following the cancellation of a planned military strike. Trump also stated that key regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, encouraged diplomatic negotiations and supported the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices had surged nearly 23% during the previous month after renewed conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, raising concerns over global supply. Fundamental developments also pressured prices. OPEC+ approved a 188,000 barrels per day increase in production quotas for September, completing the planned rollback of voluntary output cuts introduced in 2023 and signaling additional supply could enter the market once regional tensions ease. The CFTC reported that WTI crude oil speculative net long positions increased by 28,159 contracts to 106,507 contracts, reflecting stronger bullish positioning despite the latest price correction. U.S. crude production declined 2% in May to 13.71 million barrels per day, while exports reached a record 5.73 million barrels per day for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations, although gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased, indicating mixed demand conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.22% to 8,638 contracts alongside a sharp fall in prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs7,497, followed by Rs7,350 if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs7,790, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward Rs7,936.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7350-7936.

* Crude oil dropped as President Donald Trump announced that peace talks with Iran will resume.

* OPEC+ agreed to a modest 188,000 bpd rise in its oil output quotas for September, the group said in a statement.

* CFTC reported, crude oil speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil by 28,159 contracts to 106,507 contracts.

Natural gas

Natural gas futures settled 0.65% higher at Rs264.4, supported by a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. natural gas storage, which reinforced expectations of relatively tighter near-term supply. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed that utilities injected 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 24, below market expectations of a 35 bcf build. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.084 trillion cubic feet, remaining 1% below year-ago levels but 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating that overall supply conditions remain comfortable despite the smaller inventory build. Market fundamentals presented a mixed outlook. The CFTC reported that natural gas speculators increased their net short positions by 5,281 contracts to 60,997 contracts, reflecting continued bearish positioning. According to LSEG, average U.S. Lower 48 dry gas production rose to 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July from 110.0 bcfd in June, remaining close to record highs. Demand is projected to improve gradually, with Lower 48 gas consumption expected to rise from 111.8 bcfd this week to 112.8 bcfd over the next two weeks. Meanwhile, LNG export flows eased to 17.2 bcfd in July because of maintenance at several export facilities, slightly below June's average. The EIA continues to project record levels of both production and consumption in the coming years, forecasting dry gas output at 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd next year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.4% to 50,721 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs261.8, followed by Rs259.2, whereas resistance is seen at Rs267.8. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs271.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.2-271.2.

* Natural gas prices edged up after the latest EIA report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in storage last week.

* Natural gas speculators increased their net short positions across the four major markets (NYMEX and ICE) by 5,281 contracts to 60,997 contracts. - CFTC

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June

Copper

Copper futures settled 0.43% higher at Rs1,347.25, supported by persistent supply constraints that continued to tighten the global physical market. Copper inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME)-registered warehouses declined by 50% during July to 101,650 tonnes, the lowest level since mid-January, as large volumes were earmarked for delivery. Reflecting the tightening availability of nearby supplies, the LME cash copper contract traded at a $40 per tonne premium over the three-month contract, compared with a $49 discount at the beginning of July. However, gains were capped as China's Yangshan copper premium stabilized at $112 per tonne, indicating that recent import demand has moderated after reaching its highest level since November 2022. Supply-side developments remained supportive despite higher mine production. Glencore produced 397,000 tonnes of copper during the first half of 2026, up 15% year-on-year, while First Quantum Minerals increased Zambia production by 5% to 184,929 tonnes. China continued to face shortages of copper concentrate and scrap, supporting treatment charges and regional market spreads. At the same time, traders remained cautious over potential new U.S. tariffs on copper, while long-term demand expectations remained constructive due to the global energy transition and growing investment in artificial intelligence data centers. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing activity slowed to a four-month low in July, tempering the demand outlook. According to the International Copper Study Group, the refined copper market recorded an 18,000-tonne surplus in May, while China's refined copper imports rose to a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.71% to 11,348 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs1,340.4, followed by Rs1,333.4, while resistance is seen at Rs1,352.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs1,357.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1333.4-1357.

* Copper climbed as ongoing supply constraints continued to tighten market conditions.

* Available copper stocks in the LME-registered warehouses fell 50% in July

* The Politburo indicated that it would continue relying on existing policy measures instead of rolling out broad-based stimulus.

Zinc

Zinc futures settled 0.57% higher at Rs386, supported by easing concerns over global economic growth after lower crude oil prices reduced inflationary pressure, while supply-side risks in China provided additional support. Heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China raised concerns about potential disruptions to mining, smelting operations, and transportation, strengthening expectations of tighter near-term supplies. Market sentiment also improved after U.S. President Donald Trump suspended a planned military strike on Iran and resumed diplomatic efforts, easing geopolitical uncertainty. Supply fundamentals remained supportive despite mixed production trends. A mine in southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes during August following production adjustments, while a central China zinc smelter will undertake routine maintenance, reducing refined output by an estimated 1,000–1,500 tonnes. China's refined zinc production continued to expand, with May output rising 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes, while zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.6%, indicating adequate domestic availability. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes during the first half of 2026, down 21% from a year earlier, whereas Boliden's zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, highlighting improving market balance. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 15.21% to 2,970 contracts alongside higher prices, indicating the formation of fresh long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs383.2, followed by Rs380.2 if weakness emerges. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs390, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs393.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 380.2-393.8.

* Zinc prices gained as lower oil prices alleviated anxiety about economic growth and demand.

* Support also seen as heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China raised concerns over potential disruptions to mining, smelting operations.

* A mine in Southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by approximately 1,000 tonnes of contained zinc in August.

Aluminium

Aluminium futures settled 0.94% higher at Rs344.55, supported by concerns that heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province could disrupt smelter operations, hydropower generation, and transportation, tightening near-term supplies. Additional support came from ongoing supply constraints outside China, where aluminium production declined 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. Meanwhile, inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME)-registered warehouses dropped to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, highlighting the tight physical market. Supply developments remained mixed across major producing regions. Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. However, some downside risks to supply have started to ease as Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a prolonged outage, while production resumed across parts of the Middle East, Iceland, Indonesia, and Vietnam. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly slipped into contraction during July, tempering the demand outlook. At the same time, China's primary aluminium production rose 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million tonnes in June, while unwrought aluminium and product exports climbed to a record 711,000 tonnes, reflecting strong overseas shipments despite weaker imports. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year in June, while aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 7.8% month-on-month, indicating steady regional demand. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.65% to 3,817 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs340.3, followed by Rs335.9 if profit booking emerges. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs347.1, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs349.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 335.9-349.5.

* Aluminium gained supported by concerns that heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province could disrupt smelter operations tightening near-term supply.

* Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters.

* Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes

Turmeric

Turmeric futures surged 3.80% to settle at Rs22,392, supported by tight spot supplies and renewed concerns over the potential impact of El Niño on the crop currently being sown. Market sentiment strengthened as deficient rainfall in several producing regions raised fears of lower yields, while declining carry-forward stocks continued to tighten overall availability. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward inventories have fallen to around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than more than 20 lakh bags recorded last season, providing strong support to prices. Fundamentally, the market remains focused on weather developments and sowing progress. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, remaining well above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, encouraged by attractive prices near multi-year highs. Recent improvements in monsoon rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions have eased immediate concerns regarding crop prospects and are expected to accelerate sowing activity. However, traders continue to monitor rainfall distribution closely, as uneven precipitation linked to El Niño could still affect crop development and production. Meanwhile, farmer selling during the ongoing harvest season has increased spot market supplies, although stockist buying remains cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming crop. Export demand continues to provide underlying support. India's turmeric exports declined marginally by 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May, while cumulative exports during April-May remained broadly unchanged. Strong demand from China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy helped offset weakness in other destinations, reflecting resilient international consumption. Spot prices in the major Nizamabad market also strengthened by 1.89%, indicating firm domestic demand. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 1.03% to 29,420 contracts alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs21,644, followed by Rs20,894, while resistance is seen at Rs22,990. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs23,586.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20894-23586.

* Turmeric prices gained amid fears of El Nino impact the crop that is currently being sown.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20406.85 Rupees gained by 1.89 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures settled 1.60% higher at Rs21,260, supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds despite adequate overall crop availability. Export-grade, high-purity jeera has become increasingly scarce as daily arrivals at major trading centres such as Unjha in Gujarat and key Rajasthan markets continue to decline. Market sentiment also received support from quality concerns after reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat affected the quantity and quality of the harvestable crop. Demand for residue-compliant and premium-grade jeera from European and North American buyers has further strengthened the outlook for superior quality supplies. However, gains remained limited due to continued farmer selling as producers liquidated stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities. Faster harvesting and drying supported by favourable weather in northwest India accelerated market arrivals, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot purchases by traders. Industrial spice processors and stockists continued to follow a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy, avoiding aggressive forward buying. Export sentiment also remained subdued as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted logistics, while expected bulk purchases from China remained inconsistent and price-sensitive. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria also weighed on India's export competitiveness. Production estimates indicate India's jeera output may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this season compared with 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower sowing acreage. Meanwhile, India's jeera exports fell 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, although shipments to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland recorded healthy growth. Spot prices in Unjha eased marginally despite the futures market strength. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 7.48% to 7,128 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs20,950, followed by Rs20,640, while resistance is seen at Rs21,440. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs21,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20640-21620.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21011 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views