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Gold

Gold settled 0.49% higher at Rs163,229, supported by a weaker dollar after the U.S. Treasury Department announced its buyback support plan, while investors remained focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for clues on the interest-rate outlook. Markets are awaiting the July Personal Consumption Expenditure price index on Wednesday and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Traders are pricing around a 36% probability of a September rate hike, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged stands at 64%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Geopolitical tensions also supported safe-haven demand as the U.S. threatened Iran with extensive financial sanctions targeting its trade partners. Physical demand remained mixed across major markets. Swiss gold exports declined 2% month-on-month in July, with shipments to China falling 22% to 21.8 tonnes and deliveries to Hong Kong dropping to 1.4 tonnes from 8.1 tonnes. In contrast, Swiss shipments to the UK jumped 44% to 39.5 tonnes, while China’s central bank purchased 19.9 tonnes in July, its largest monthly addition since October 2023. Indian retail demand remained subdued, with dealers offering discounts of up to $65 per ounce, while Chinese bullion traded at premiums of up to $6. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes at end-June, valued at $1.2 trillion. The World Gold Council reported India’s net gold imports fell 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter, while domestic demand declined 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, second-quarter gold demand was steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, as central-bank purchases surged to 289 tonnes and offset 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 4.22% to 10,541 while prices rose Rs791. Gold has support at Rs161,895, followed by Rs160,560, while resistance is placed at Rs164,670; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs166,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 160560-166110.

* Gold rose after the U.S. Treasury Department's buyback support plan pushed the dollar lower.

* Gold prices could surge past Goldman Sachs's $4,900 year-end forecast

* Swiss gold exports drop 2% in July as deliveries to China fall

Silver

Silver settled 0.96% lower at Rs244,220 amid profit booking as investors awaited U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for further clues on the interest-rate outlook. The U.S. Treasury buyback support plan pushed the dollar to multi-month lows, limiting downside pressure in the precious metal, while markets remained focused on the July PCE price index due Wednesday and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Traders are pricing around a 36% probability of a September rate hike, against a 64% chance of rates remaining unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. U.S. economic data showed some signs of softer activity, with retail sales falling 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply below expectations for a 0.1% increase, while initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 209,000. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores jumped 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes, indicating strong processing activity. Citi maintained a bullish outlook, targeting silver at $75 per ounce over the next zero to three months and $90 over six to 12 months, supported by stronger investment demand and expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at end-June, valued at $53.1 billion. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect the market to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021. The global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million in 2025, despite total demand declining 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand may rise 18%. Total supply is expected to decline 2%, further supporting the medium-term fundamental outlook. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.74% to 9,035 while prices fell Rs2,377. Silver has support at Rs242,280, followed by Rs240,345, while resistance is placed at Rs247,475; a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs250,735.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 240345-250735.

* Silver rose as a subdued dollar supported demand for precious metals, while investors await US inflation data.

* Prices gained after a US Treasury buyback support plan pushed the dollar to multi-month lows.

* Markets are focused on the July PCE price index due Wednesday and Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 2.68% lower at Rs8,135 as investors booked profits after recent gains and awaited details of expected new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which could further disrupt Middle East supplies. Downside remained limited as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations stalled, potentially constraining shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route carrying around one-fifth of global oil supplies. The International Energy Agency is not currently discussing a second release of oil from strategic reserves, according to IEA chief Fatih Birol, reducing the prospect of additional supply relief. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose to 3.993 million barrels per day in June from a record low of 3.434 million bpd in May, according to JODI data, indicating improved availability from the world’s largest exporter. Meanwhile, the CFTC’s latest Commitments of Traders report showed net long oil positions rising 23% to 122.1K contracts from 99.2K, reflecting stronger bullish positioning among traders. U.S. inventory data provided a mixed signal, with crude stocks increasing 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels for the week ended August 14, while inventories at Cushing declined 1.3 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 216,000 barrels per day and utilization rose one percentage point. Gasoline inventories increased 0.7 million barrels to 209.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined 1.5 million barrels to 105.6 million barrels. Net U.S. crude imports fell by 1.75 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth forecast. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 14.43% to 11,706 while prices fell Rs224. Crude oil has support at Rs8,067, followed by Rs7,998, while resistance is placed at Rs8,230; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs8,324.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7998-8324.

* Crude oil prices slipped as investors took profits and awaited details of expected new U.S. sanctions on Iran.

* The IEA is not currently discussing a second release of oil from strategic reserves, its chief Fatih Birol said.

* Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia rose to 3.993 mbpd in June, from a record low of 3.434 mbpd in May.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.6% higher at 266.4 as traders balanced expectations for persistent summer heat against abundant supply. The latest EIA report showed U.S. utilities added only 16 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended August 14, below the market expectation of 19 bcf, the 19 bcf injection recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 29 bcf. Inventories rose to 3.169 trillion cubic feet, 0.9% below the corresponding period last year but 6.2% above the five-year average, indicating comfortable supply availability despite stronger seasonal demand. In the previous week, storage increased by 36 bcf. Average gas flows to nine major U.S. LNG export facilities stood at 17.2 bcfd in August, slightly below June’s record of 17.4 bcfd. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are forecast through September 3, which could increase power-sector gas consumption and provide near-term price support. The EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027. Domestic consumption is projected to increase from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. Meanwhile, average U.S. LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the August forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 22.19% to 17,269 while prices increased Rs1.6. Natural gas has support at 260.7, followed by 255.0, while resistance is placed at 271.8; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 277.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 255-277.2.

* Natural gas prices rose as traders balanced expectations for persistent summer heat against abundant supply.

* The latest EIA report showed US utilities added only 16 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week.

* Strong output has therefore limited the impact of elevated summer demand on storage levels.

Copper

Copper settled 0.09% lower at 1,384.15 as a sharp build-up in exchange inventories eased concerns over near-term supply tightness, while rising availability weighed on prices. LME-monitored inventories stood at 238,575 tonnes on August 20, around 16% above the February low, while SHFE stocks jumped 28.4% last week to 89,548 tonnes. Comex copper inventories remained at a record 742,778 short tons, or 673,836 metric tons. The LME cash premium over three-month copper narrowed further to around $53 per tonne from $61.32 previously and as high as $545 a week earlier, highlighting improved nearby availability. However, LME warehouse stocks have declined for 42 consecutive sessions, the longest such streak since 2014, with nearly half of the remaining stocks already marked for withdrawal. U.S. refined copper imports exceeded 200,000 tonnes in July, the highest monthly volume in at least 12 years, pushing combined U.S. inventories across Comex, LME and private storage above 1 million tonnes. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-tonne deficit in June compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half surplus stood at 131,000 tonnes versus 114,000 tonnes a year earlier, according to ICSG. World refined copper output reached 2.37 million tonnes in June against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. China’s refined copper imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports declined 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Chinese refined copper production increased 1.3% year-on-year to 1.29 million tonnes in July. UBS expects the copper market deficit to widen to 379,000 tonnes in 2027 from 219,000 tonnes in 2026 and maintains a constructive outlook with a $15,500 per tonne target. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 20.1% to 5,874 while prices fell Rs1.2. Copper has support at 1,376.5, followed by 1,368.9, while resistance is placed at 1,392.2; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1,400.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1368.9-1400.3.

* Copper prices rose as a jump in cancelled warrants or metal earmarked for delivery on LME triggered buying.

* Copper inventories in LME-monitored warehouses slipped 0.56% to 238,575 tons in the latest data.

* The premium of cash copper over three-month copper narrowed further to around $53 a ton, from $61.32 at Friday's close.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.1% higher at 412.15, supported by growing concerns over tightening supplies outside China and declining LME inventories. LME zinc stocks stood at 93,250 tonnes, down 25% since mid-June, while the premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract surged to $132 per tonne from zero in early July, reaching its highest level since December, highlighting increased nearby supply tightness. Concerns were also raised by large holdings of zinc warrants and cash contracts on the LME. In China, heavy rainfall and flooding threatened mining and smelting operations, with production adjustments at a Southwest China mine expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could cut refined production by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Global production also remained under pressure, with Glencore reporting first-half zinc output down 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, equivalent to 48% of its full-year guidance, while Nexa reported zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year. Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000–235,000 tonnes. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus remained elevated at 163,000 tonnes compared with 44,000 tonnes a year earlier, according to ILZSG. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, indicating strong smelter activity. Elevated prices, however, could weaken demand and discourage Chinese buyers, limiting the upside. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 14.73% to 1,846 while prices rose Rs4.5. Zinc has support at 407.2, followed by 402.3, while resistance is placed at 415.5; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 418.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 402.3-418.9.

* Zinc prices rose on concern about shortages outside China.

* LME zinc stocks at 93,250 tons have dropped 25% since the middle of June.

* Stocks of the metal in warehouses approved by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled this year.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.42% lower at 346.45 amid expectations of faster production restarts in the Middle East and alternative shipping routes helping suppliers manage disruptions. Emirates Global Aluminium and Alba Aluminium are progressing with production resumptions, while EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% of capacity and could return to previous output levels in early 2027. China’s aluminium production increased 3.8% year-on-year to around 3.9 million tonnes in July, adding pressure on prices, while expectations that a trade deal could halve U.S. tariff rates on Canadian aluminium imports to 25% also weighed on sentiment. However, downside was limited by a weaker dollar and expectations of additional Chinese fiscal support to strengthen economic growth. China’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, increasing expectations for further policy measures. Aluminium inventories at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July, reflecting reduced Middle Eastern imports amid the Iran conflict. Supply concerns remained as Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte refinery in Brazil cut alumina production to 50% of capacity because of reduced natural gas availability, while Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Australia. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, with Gulf production plunging 44% to 293,000 tonnes. China’s output increased to 3.866 million tonnes, partly offsetting the Middle East decline. China’s aluminium and aluminium semis exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes in July, while cumulative January-July exports reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 26.43% to 1,910 while prices fell Rs1.45. Aluminium has support at 345.4, followed by 344.3, while resistance is placed at 348.4; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 350.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 344.3-350.3.

* Aluminium dropped amid expectations of production restarts in the Middle East.

* EGA and Alba Aluminium in the Middle East are ramping up production resumption at a fairly fast pace.

* China's aluminium production rose by 3.8 % to 3.9 million metric tons in July from a year earlier.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.35% lower at 21,740 as traders booked profits after recent gains, while improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over crop stress. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have ensured better water availability during the vegetative phase, reducing immediate crop failure fears. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. However, downside remains limited by structurally tight supplies, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns over the impact of El Nino on the newly sown crop. Turmeric acreage is expected to rise 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, although the lower-than-expected expansion in some key regions has raised concerns over overall production. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the supply buffer. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window has increased near-term availability, while traders continue to monitor whether improved rainfall will translate into sustained production gains. European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, creating discounts for commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remained strong, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes a year earlier. April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes, supported by strong growth in China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended 0.14% higher at Rs20,465.9. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest increasing 0.41% to 36,775 while prices declined Rs298. Turmeric has support at Rs21,508, followed by Rs21,278, while resistance is placed at Rs22,048; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs22,358.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21278-22358.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as revival of monsoon activity eased dry-weather fears.

* Filling up of key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20465.9 Rupees gained by 0.14 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.48% higher at 20,835, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds as arrivals across major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan began to taper. Although overall physical availability remains stable, export-grade high-purity seed supplies are declining faster than expected, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat growing pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable volumes. Production concerns also remain after reduced sowing, with domestic jeera output estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is projected at 48–50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has reduced China’s production estimate to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. However, upside remains limited as farmers are liquidating stocks for Kharif sowing, while rising NCDEX warehouse inventories have reduced urgency among traders. Large spice grinders remain cautious on bulk purchases, and domestic processors are following hand-to-mouth procurement. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also pressuring Indian export premiums. Meanwhile, European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Strong growth in exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina partially offset the broader decline. In Unjha, spot prices ended 0.12% lower at Rs20,534.4. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.81% to 9,180 while prices gained Rs100. Jeera has support at Rs20,730, followed by Rs20,610, while resistance is placed at Rs20,910; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs20,970.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20610-20970.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to dampen logistics and demand from key traditional buyers.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20534.4 Rupees dropped by -0.12 percent.

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