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The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) forecasts a slight decline in sugar output for 2024-25 at 331.1 lakh tonnes, down from 339.95 lt last year, due to reduced cane acreage in key states. Despite this, abundant current year rainfall and sufficient excess stocks will support the Ethanol Blending programme and exports. Total sugarcane acreage is estimated at 56.1 lakh hectares, a 6% decrease from last year. Uttar Pradesh's output is expected to rise, while Maharashtra and Karnataka will see slight reductions.

Highlights

Overall Output Projection: ISMA projects sugar output for the 2024-25 season at 331.1 lakh tonnes (lt), slightly lower than the previous year's 339.95 lt due to a decline in production in states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.

Ethanol Blending and Exports: Despite the lower output, ISMA assures that excess stocks will support the Ethanol Blending programme and exports, maintaining a balanced sugar market.

Sugarcane Acreage: Total sugarcane acreage for 2024-25 is estimated at 56.1 lakh hectares (lh), about 6% lower than the previous year's 59.44 lh, based on satellite images from June 2024.

Uttar Pradesh Production: In Uttar Pradesh, cane area is down 3% at 23.32 lh, but sugar output is expected to increase to 113 lt from 109.76 lt due to less diversion towards jaggery and khandsari units.

Maharashtra Production: Maharashtra's cane area is projected to be 13% lower at 13.10 lh, with sugar output expected to decrease to 111.02 lt from 117.18 lt due to last year’s deficient rainfall.

Karnataka Production: In Karnataka, cane acreage is down 8% at 6.20 lh, and sugar output is projected to be 56.51 lt, slightly lower than last year's 58.24 lt.

Rainfall Impact: Despite last year’s deficient rainfall, current year’s rainfall has been about 30% above normal. This is expected to enhance cane productivity and sugar recovery, mitigating the impact of reduced cane area.

Tamil Nadu Production: Tamil Nadu’s sugarcane area is down 19% at 2 lh, with sugar output expected to be 8.84 lt, a decrease from 12.31 lt last year.

Gujarat Production: In Gujarat, cane area is up 4% at 2.31 lh, with sugar output projected to be higher at 9.98 lt compared to last year's 9.20 lt.

Opening and Closing Stocks: The opening stocks on October 1, 2024, are estimated at 90.5 lt, and closing stocks on September 30, 2025, are projected at 133.5 lt. This includes 78.5 lt of excess stocks above the normative level of 55 lt.

Consumption and Availability: The total sugar availability for the year is projected at 423.5 lt, with domestic consumption estimated at 290 lt.

Conclusion

ISMA's projections for the 2024-25 sugar season indicate a slight decrease in overall output due to reduced cane acreage in major states like Maharashtra and Karnataka. However, the current year's above-normal rainfall is expected to boost cane productivity and sugar recovery, mitigating the impact of the reduced area. Sufficient excess stocks will ensure support for the Ethanol Blending programme and exports, maintaining a balanced sugar market. Despite regional declines, the overall outlook remains optimistic, with total availability meeting domestic consumption needs and leaving ample closing stocks.

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