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Nifty :25212

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* Indian equity benchmarks closed on a flat note amid mixed global cues. Nifty conclude the session at 25212 up 0.06%. Sectorally, Metal, Healthcare and Pharma underperformed, while, PSU Bank, IT and Realty outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

* Index after initial decline paired intraday losses after buying demand emerged in the vicinity of 80% retracement of the Tuesday’s session and closed on the flat to positive note. Consequently, daily price action resulted into small bull candle carrying higher high-low, indicating pause in downward momentum.

* Going ahead,, index to gain momentum on the upside need a decisive close above past two sessions high (25245) coincided with 20-day EMA which would confirm resumption of uptrend and pave the way towards our earmarked target of 25800 in coming weeks. Index is making higher base above the lower band of rising channel indicating uptrend is intact. While on the downside strong support is placed at 24800.

* In the process, bouts of volatility on the backdrop of the ongoing earnings season coupled with uncertainties around the tariff developments can not be ruled out. Hence, any dip from hereon should be used as buying opportunity in quality stocks with proven earnings strength.

Key Monitorable which will dictate the further course of action:

a. All eyes will be on outcome of US-India bilateral trade deal coupled with progression of Q1FY26 earning season which will dictate the further course of action.

b. Falling US Dollar index would act as boon for equities that would eventually result into FII's inflow.

c. India VIX has been sustaining below 12 which is near 10-month low, indicating participants anxiety at lowest level.

* Structurally, the formation of higher peak and trough while absorbing host of negative news around geo-political issues coupled with absence of US – India trade tariff decision. Further, strong market breadth depict strength as currently 66% stocks of Nifty 500 universe are trading above 200-days SMA compared to last month's reading of 52% that bodes well for durability of ongoing structural up move.

• The formation of higher-high-low makes us maintain our support base at 24800 for the Nifty which is based on 50% retracement of recent rally (23936-25669) and 50-day EMA coincided with lower band of rising channel.

Nifty Bank : 57169

Technical Outlook

Day that was

* The Bank Nifty closed on a positive note despite mix global cues and closed the day at 57169 , up 0 .28 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index underperforming the benchmark closed on a flat to positive note, and ended at 28 ,107 .55 , up 0 .03 % .

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty opened on a weak note where it found support in the vicinity of 38 .20 % retracement of the Tuesday’s range and demonstrated notable resilience today, reinforcing support at lower levels and fueling a robust recovery mostly fueled by PSU Banks and paired intraday losses this resulted into a high wave candle indicating follow through strength .

* Key point to highlight is that Index closed above previous sessions high for the straight second session making higher -high -low, signaling resilience and robust price structure . After witnessing buying interest in the vicinity of two -month rising trendline and 20 - day EMA which it held since April in Tuesday's session, coupled with positive market breadth, supports the ongoing higher -high -low structure, underscoring a well -established uptrend . This has opened the gates towards 58800 levels in coming quarter which is the implied target of the consolidation from (56098 -53483 ) . The support base is maintained at 55 ,500 , which represents the 50 % retracement of (53 ,483 –57 ,628 ) and aligns with the 50 -day EMA . Consequently, any dip from current levels could offer fresh buying opportunities .

* Outperforming the benchmark, PSU bank continued its winning streak on the third session and closed on a positive note, indicating inherent strength . After breaking out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May, the index has maintained a higher -high -low structure on the weekly chart, signaling an intact uptrend . While Bank Nifty trades below ~ 1 % from its all -time highs, the PSU Bank index remains about 13 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is the recent swing low and coincides with the 20 -week EMA .

* Structurally, Bank Nifty is undergoing phase -wise expansion, with each rally establishing new price zones of acceptance . Instead of sharp directional moves, the index is progressing through brief consolidations that serve as launchpads for subsequent advances . This transition from volatility -driven swings to range -bound bases suggests increasing market maturity, with demand emerging at higher levels . The narrowing amplitude of corrections indicates that stronger hands are absorbing supply, maintaining trend continuity .

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