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India’s rice inventories reached a record 44.1 million metric tons on December 1, exceeding the government’s target by more than five times. The surplus is attributed to a bumper summer rice crop of 120 million tons, driven by ample monsoon rains and expanded planting areas. With export restrictions on most grades lifted, India, the world's largest rice exporter, is poised to increase overseas shipments without risking domestic supplies. However, overflowing grain bins raise storage concerns for the Food Corporation of India, which aims to procure 48.5 million metric tons of rice this marketing year. Meanwhile, wheat prices have soared domestically due to limited supplies and a ban on exports.

Key Highlights

* India’s rice stocks hit a record 44.1 million metric tons in December.

* Government target exceeded by over five times due to surplus production.

* Export restrictions eased for most rice grades, excluding broken rice.

* Bumper summer crop of 120 million tons boosts supply significantly.

* Wheat prices soar domestically amid limited supplies and export bans.

India’s rice reserves have reached unprecedented levels, totaling 44.1 million metric tons as of December 1, surpassing the government’s target of 7.6 million tons by over five times. This massive inventory provides the country with a unique opportunity to boost rice exports, especially as restrictions on most grades of rice have been lifted following expectations of a bumper crop.

Price trends in the domestic market remain stable for rice, as the record-breaking summer crop of 120 million tons accounts for nearly 85% of India’s annual production. This ample supply ensures domestic needs are met while supporting increased export prospects. Meanwhile, wheat prices have hit record highs due to strong demand and limited supplies, as export bans remain in place for wheat.

The surplus rice stocks are attributed to favorable monsoon rains and an expansion in planted acreage, enabling the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to procure 48.5 million tons in the current marketing year, up from 46.3 million tons last year. However, this surplus raises concerns over storage capacity in government granaries, as incoming stocks are expected to swell further.

While rice exports appear poised to grow, India continues to restrict wheat exports to control rising domestic prices. Strong demand and delays in releasing stocks from government warehouses have driven wheat prices to record levels.

Finally

India’s record rice surplus bolsters export potential, ensuring stable domestic supplies. However, rising wheat prices and storage concerns underline the challenges ahead for food policy management.

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