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India’s coffee output for the 2024-25 season is expected to decline by 20-30% due to erratic weather conditions. Karnataka, which accounts for over 70% of the country's coffee production, has been severely affected by prolonged dry spells followed by excessive rains. The combination of high temperatures and continuous rainfall has caused berry droppings and diseases, particularly impacting the Arabica variety. While the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimate for 2023-24 was 3.74 lakh tonnes, the upcoming season's output is expected to fall short. The USDA had also predicted a dip in India’s coffee production, especially for Arabica. Growers are hoping for favorable weather in the coming months to salvage some of the crop.

Key Highlights

* Coffee production in India is expected to fall by 20-30% for the 2024-25 season.

* Karnataka, producing 70% of India’s coffee, faces severe crop damage.

* Prolonged dry spells followed by excess rains have led to berry droppings and root diseases.

* Arabica variety is more severely impacted compared to robusta.

* Weather forecast for the coming months remains critical for further crop outlook.

India’s coffee production is poised to experience a significant decline in the 2024-25 season, with a projected drop of 20-30%. Karnataka, responsible for over 70% of the nation's coffee output, has been hit hard by erratic weather, with extended dry spells and excessive rains affecting crops. The 2023-24 crop yield, estimated at 3.74 lakh tonnes by the Coffee Board, might not be reached in the upcoming season. Coffee prices remain elevated, but growers fear that the crop loss will overshadow potential profits.

Price performance could see upward pressure as supply tightens in the global market. However, farmers face a dilemma—high prices versus low yield. In particular, the Arabica variety has been more impacted than Robusta, compounding the woes of farmers.

In addition to Karnataka, Kerala’s key coffee-producing region, Wayanad, has also experienced crop loss due to heavy rains. The USDA had already projected a dip in India's coffee output for the 2024-25 season, primarily due to the decline in Arabica. The final crop estimate for 2023-24 is still pending, but expectations for the upcoming year are grim. The upcoming months' weather will be crucial for any recovery in crop prospects.

Finally

India’s coffee output may see a severe reduction of over 20%, driving prices higher, but weather remains the biggest factor in determining final outcomes.

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