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India received 14% surplus rainfall in the first half of September, recording 108.5 mm against the normal 95.2 mm, boosting the overall seasonal rainfall to 108% of the long-period average (LPA) as of September 15. Central India experienced the highest surplus at 26.6%, while the eastern and northeastern regions saw a 34.3% deficit. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted heavy rainfall across several states, with minimal crop damage expected at 2-4% of total production. However, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana could see higher losses. The Agriculture Ministry is currently assessing the full impact. The IMD also forecasts continued heavy rains in several regions in the coming days.

Key Highlights

# India saw 14% surplus rainfall in the first half of September.

# Seasonal rainfall has reached 108% of its long period average.

# Central India witnessed the highest surplus, with 26.6% above normal rainfall.

# Crop damage is predicted to be low at 2-4% of total production.

# The monsoon trough is north of its normal position, leading to heavy rainfall forecasts.

India experienced 14% surplus rainfall in the first half of September, receiving 108.5 mm compared to the normal 95.2 mm. This helped the overall seasonal rainfall under the south-west monsoon reach 108% of its long-period average (LPA) between June 1 and September 15. With June showing a rainfall deficiency of 11%, followed by surpluses of 9% and 16% in July and August respectively, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted "above normal" rainfall for September.

The monsoon has been uneven across regions, with central India, comprising states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, receiving 134.7 mm of rainfall—26.6% above normal. In contrast, the eastern and northeastern subdivisions saw a 34.3% rainfall deficit. The north-western regions, including Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, recorded 40.8% surplus rains.

Despite excess rainfall, a report by Barclays indicated minimal crop damage, estimated at only 2-4% of total production. However, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are expected to see higher crop losses due to significant rainfall in these regions. The Agriculture Ministry is currently assessing the overall impact across affected states.

The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand, with potential impacts on agriculture.

Finally

The surplus rains have alleviated early monsoon deficits, but localized crop damage, particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, remains a concern for farmers.

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