India Economics : Weekly round-up of macro-economic events by JM Financial Services Ltd
Follow us Now on Telegram ! Get daily 10 - 12 important updates on Business, Finance and Investment. Join our Telegram Channel
https://t.me/InvestmentGuruIndiacom
Download Telegram App before Joining the Channel
THIS WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS
* The week started with a hotter than expected CPI print in US. This pushed hopes of rate cuts to Jun’24 while a section of the markets had factored in policy easing in Mar’24.
* Goods inflation continued to trend lower while services inflation remained stubborn in US. Housing inflation is also elevated; this category will decide the trajectory of inflation going forward.
* Domestic CPI inflation eased further meeting market expectations. This was mainly due to easing in main driver of inflation i.e. food prices had eased for second month in a row. Core inflation moderated below 4% mark. But policy easing would have to wait as RBI aims to align inflation with its target on a ‘durable’ basis.
* India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed substantially to USD 17.5bn in Jan vs. monthly average range of USD 20.5bn. This was mainly on account of steeper sequential decline in imports vs. that in exports. Robust services surplus led to negligible trade deficit position of USD 0.75bn vs. monthly average of USD 7.5bn.
* Wholesale inflation has reverted from its deflationary trend but momentum continues to remain weak. Manufacturing inflation sustained the deflationary trend, which bodes well for margins in the sector. We expect the uptick in WPI to coincide with downward trajectory of CPI inflation.
* Supreme Court unanimously struck down center’s electoral bonds scheme which facilitated anonymous donations for being unconstitutional. BJP received INR 12.9bn through these bonds in FY23 (> 50% of its income) and seven times higher than that of Congress.
* Japan’s economy slips into a technical recession, as its GDP declined for two straight quarters. Weak consumer demand dragged the economy. With this it loses its third position to Germany, moreover markets now expect its ultra-lose monetary policy to continue.
* US treasury asks Americans not to focus on the recent spike in inflation in isolation, as labour market and consumer demand is strong.
Please refer disclaimer at https://www.jmfl.com/disclaimer
CIN Number : L67120MH1986PLC038784
