IGI Logo

Nifty :25694

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Indian equities benchmark concluded the volatile week on a flat note to settle at 25,694 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Nifty Smallcap has relatively outperformed the benchmark up 0.45%. Sectoral performances remained mixed with Metal, PSU Banks and IT remained in limelight while Pharma, Realty and Auto remained laggards.

Technical Outlook:

* Index opened the week with a negative gap-down, however supportive efforts emerged from the lower levels. As a result, the weekly price action formed a Doji candle, indicating indecisiveness.

*- Index to open with a gap-down amid renewed tariff related negative cues. Over the past two months, the Nifty has remained confined to a narrow range of 25,300-26,300, driven by uncertainty surrounding USIndia bilateral negotiation and heightened global volatility. We expect this consolidation to continue, with stock-specific movements gaining prominence as the Q3 earnings season unfolds. Thereby holding above previous week’s low of 25473 would keep pullback options open. Additionally, a decisive close above 25900 would reignite the momentum which would drive index toward 26300 in coming weeks

* Going ahead, the upcoming week will be crucial as several index heavy weight stocks are scheduled to report their Q3 earnings. A positive earnings outlook from these leaders could significantly improve market sentiment. Hence, one should refrain from aggressive selling in current market and focus on accumulating quality stocks with strong fundamentals as key support is placed at 25300 being 61.8% retracement of the previous up-move (24,580–26,325) at 25,270

Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

* The Nifty 500 has surged nearly 24% from its April 2025 lows and currently trades just 4% below its all-time high set in September 2024. While this may initially raise concerns about the market losing momentum, however a deeper look at market breadth tells a more encouraging story.

* Historically, market breadth bottoms when the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day SMA falls below 15%, while rallies typically peak only when this figure approaches 90%.

* Currently, this metric stands near 39%, well below exhaustion levels and still beneath equilibrium. This suggests a large universe of stocks remains under-participated, leaving ample room for further upside and increasing the probability of the index eventually surpassing its previous highs and entering the next leg of the uptrend.

a) Q3-FY26 earnings

b) US-India Trade Deal

c) US GDP data

d) BOJ policy rate

e) Brent Crude Oil has faced resistance near $67, being 38.2% retracement of its previous decline. Further decline in Brent crude oil bodes well for domestic market.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Consolidation in 25470

Nifty Bank : 60095

Technical Outlook

Week that was:

Bank Nifty ended the week on a positive note, at 60095 up 1.4%. Nifty PSU Bank Index has relatively outperformed the benchmark and clocked a fresh all-time high to settle at 9014 up 5%

Technical Outlook:

* Index opened the week on negative note supportive efforts emerged from the lower levels. As a result, the weekly price action formed a Piercing line like candlestick, indicating bullish momentum.

* Key point to highlight is that, Nifty PSU Bank Index clocked a fresh all-time high after witnessing breakout from recent consolidation range. Bank Nifty Index continues to trade within rising channel and closed above two sessions high in Friday's session, indicating continuation of uptrend. Going ahead, we believe index to challenge higher band of consolidation at 60400 and head towards 61500 in coming weeks, being measuring implication of range breakout(60400-58864)

* Structurally, since October2025, Index has consistently arrested intermediate corrections in the vicinity of 50-day EMA. Mirroring this historical behavior, the index has once again respected this key support and staged a strong rebound, indicating the probability of a similar constructive price resolution ahead.

* Nifty PSU Bank Index clocked a fresh all-time high backed by strong Q3 earnings. Post breakout from recent consolidation range we expect Index to head towards 9200 (measuring implication of range breakout) in coming weeks ,considering good results from PSU Banks Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Higher high-low formation within rising channel

* Levels: Sell near Friday’s high

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html

SEBI Registration number INZ000183631