Index finds support at 20 - EMA, holds prior gap zone - ICICI Direct
Nifty :24352
The Indian equity benchmarks ended the week on a positive note, bolstered by easing geopolitical tensions and a subsequent dip in oil prices, which acted as a significant tailwind. The Nifty settled the week at 24,350, up 1.25%, while the broader markets showed even greater strength. Both the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed the benchmark, each gaining approximately 4%. On the sectoral front, Defense, Energy, Metals, and Realty emerged as the top performers.
Technical Outlook:
* Index started the week on a soft note however index found strong support near the 20-day EMA and the previous week's positive gap area (23,153–23,828). The weekly price action resulted into strong bull candle carrying higher high-low structure, indicating resumption of primary uptrend.
* The index is expected to open with a mix of cautious sentiment and a positive gap-up, following global cues. After a remarkable ~2,200-point rally over the past three weeks, the index has successfully closed above its 50-day EMA for the first time since February 2026-a clear signal that upward momentum is reviving.
* Looking ahead, 24,500 remains a formidable resistance zone. A sustained move above this level would confirm the bullish momentum towards 24800 being 200- day EMA. However, failure to clear this hurdle could lead to a period of consolidation within the 23,800-24,500 range.
* On a broader market perspective, Since the recent bottom formed on April 2, 2026, the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices have rallied 15-17%, while the Nifty has gained only 10%. This performance gap suggests further room for Nifty to catch up. A higher base formation amid ongoing consolidation should set the stage for a march toward 24,800 in the coming weeks.
* In the process, volatility would remain elevated on the back of geopolitical development as well as onset of earning season. Hence, we expect stock specific activity to remain in focus.
Our constructive bias is further validated by following observations:
1.The faster pace of retracement following a correction, coupled with the formation of a higher base above short-term moving averages, confirms a structural trend reversal. This shift in momentum indicates a healthy absorption of selling pressure and augurs well for the next leg of the upward move.
2.Mirroring the historical volatility of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the index is repeating a similar "war-induced" pattern. Recent corrections have arrested near the 11% mark, followed by a resilient one-month rally of approximately 9%, suggesting that markets have priced in the geopolitical risks and are entering a recovery phase.
3.The Bank Nifty has staged a strong rebound, successfully maintaining its longterm rhythm of avoiding corrections greater than 20%. This established floor, which has held firm since the COVID-19 lows, reinforces the sector's relative strength and its role as a primary driver of the broader market recovery.
4.Market breadth seen significant improvement as the current reading of % stocks trading above 50- and 200-days SMA has jumped to 70% and 37% compared to last month reading of 15%.
5.Market breadth has seen a significant improvement, indicating broad-based participation rather than a narrow rally. The % of stocks trading above their 50- day SMA has jumped to 70% (up from 15% last month), while those above their 200-day SMA have increased to 37%, signaling that mid and long-term trends are turning bullish across various sectors
Key Monitorable:
A.US-Iran ceasefire 22nd April deadline
B.Q4 earning season
C.Further decline in Crude, US Dollar Index.
Intraday Rational:
*Trend - Higher high-low formation in weekly time-frame, indicating positive bias.
*Levels - Buy around 80% retracement level of previous day range
Nifty Bank :56566
The Bank Nifty Index concluded the week on a positive note . BankNifty settle the day at 56565.70 up 1.17%.
Technical Outlook:
* Index started the week on a soft note however index found strong support near the 20-day EMA and the previous week's positive gap area (52,778–54,798). The weekly price action resulted into strong bull candle carrying higher highlow structure, indicating resumption of primary uptrend.
* Key point to highlight is that Index has closed above its 50- day EMA for first time Since March 2026, indicating revival of upward momentum. Going ahead a decisive close above 200-day EMA (56700) will open the door for the next leg of up move towards 57200 in the coming weeks. Failing which could lead to a period of consolidation within 54900-56700 range.
* The Bank Nifty has staged a strong rebound, successfully maintaining its long-term rhythm of avoiding corrections greater than 20%. This established floor, which has held firm since the COVID-19 lows, reinforces the sector's relative strength and its role as a primary driver of the broader market recovery
* On the broader space, the Nifty PSU Bank relatively underperformed the benchmark and closed positive up 0.96%. Index is consolidating above its short term 20-day EMA, indicating buying demand at elevated support base. A sustain and close above 100-day EMA would accelerate the next leg of upmove towards 9100 being 61.8% Retracement of Feb-April26 decline.
Intraday Rational:
* Trend- Higher high-low formation in weekly time-frame
* Levels- Buy around 80% retracement level of previous day range.
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