Hold TCI Express Ltd for the Target Rs 504 by Prabhudas Liladhar Ltd
Guidance trajectory eyed
TCIEXP IN reported a broadly in-line operational performance with EBITDA margin at 10.8% (PLe 10.7%) while volumes grew by 6.0% YoY to 265,000 MT (PLe 266,000 MT). While TCIEXP IN’s volumes have started registering mid-single digit growth from 3QFY26 onwards with price hike ranging from ~0.5-3.4%; the operating leverage benefit has failed to materialize fully as EBITDA margins have remained range bound at ~10% odd levels amid cost inflation (fuel, wage etc). We expect volume/realization CAGR of 8%/2% over the next 3 years with EBITDA margin of 10.7%/11.6%/13.3% in FY27E/FY28E/FY29E respectively. Given persistent growth and margin headwinds, we cut our target multiple to 15x Sep-28E EPS (earlier 16.5x) and retain HOLD on the stock with a TP of INR504.
Revenue increased by 9.6% YoY:
Revenue increased by 9.6% YoY to INR3,380mn (PLe INR 3,335mn). Volumes increased 6.0% YoY to 265,000 with a fleet utilization of 84.0%. Realization was up 3.4% YoY to Rs12.8 per kg. Gross margin stood at 28.0% (PLe 27.8%)
EBITDA margin at 10.8%:
EBITDA increased by 8.5% YoY to INR364mn (PLe INR356mn). EBITDA margin came in at 10.8% (PLe 10.7%) as against a margin of 10.9% in 2QFY26. PAT decreased marginally by 1.8% YoY to INR235mn (PLe INR227mn) with a margin of 6.9% (PLe 6.8%) as against a margin of 7.7% in 2QFY26.
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SEBI Registration number is INH000000933
