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Energy solutions platform drives the beat

ADANIENS delivered a beat to our Q1FY27 EBITDA by 8%. It reported revenue of INR 97.1bn (+42% YoY), EBITDA of INR 30.1bn (+30% YoY). The beat was led by the Energy Solutions Platform, which in its first full quarter clocked revenue of INR 19.1bn (vs. INR 2.1bn YoY) and EBIT of INR 5.9bn, or ~24% of segment EBIT; with ~350MW of C&I tied up against ~5GW of take-or-pay supply, most volumes were placed on exchanges and short bilaterals (1-13 months), making the current ~INR 1.7/unit spread (EBITDA) a likely high watermark until long-term off-take catches up. Transmission continues to anchor visibility, with capex at INR 35bn (1.57x YoY), under-construction book at INR 718bn carrying INR 95bn of locked-in tariff, and management guiding to a minimum INR 1,000bn p.a. bidding opportunity at a sustained ~25% share, with the STU cycle alone at INR 200–250bn p.a. Smart metering builds the annuity runway, with installations at 13.4mn (2.4x YoY) and the INR 30.5bn IntelliSmart acquisition (pending CCI) taking the combined platform past 47mn meters. We now build the Energy Solutions Platform into our estimates, leading to ~6%/8% upgrade in our FY27/28E EBITDA. This lifts our SOTPbased TP to INR 1,752 (from INR 1,452), with the rating maintained at HOLD (refer exhibit 6).

Beat led by Energy Solutions Platform:

AESL reported revenue of INR 97.1 Bn, up 42% YoY and 30% QoQ, beating estimates by ~20%. Growth was driven by a sharp scale-up in Trading/Energy Solutions Platform (INR 19.1 Bn, ~9x YoY) and smart metering (INR 3.5 Bn, ~5x YoY), alongside transmission (INR 33.4 Bn, +52% YoY), while distribution remained flat at ~INR 35.2 Bn. EBITDA stood at INR 30.1 Bn (+30% YoY), an 8%/16% beat to PLe/consensus, with margins at 31% vs 34% in Q1FY26 on a higher mix of lower-margin trading revenue. EBIT grew 31% YoY, led by Trading/Energy Solutions Platform (margins at 31%. Reported PAT grew 138% YoY to INR 12.85 Bn, aided by operating performance and a lower tax rate of 11%.

Energy Solutions – Fourth Vertical Emerges:

The erstwhile Trading segment, now fully operationalised, delivered its first full quarter as a material earnings driver - revenue of INR 19.1Bn (vs INR 2.1Bn in Q1FY26) and EBIT of INR 5.9Bn (vs INR 0.2Bn), margin at 31% vs 8%, contributing ~24% of segment EBIT. Nearly all of it came from the long-term book (3,325 Mus, ~INR 1.7/unit EBITA spread), with services and merchant trading adding little on 9,856 MUs at ~INR 0.03/unit at EBITDA. Supply is tied up at ~5 GW take-or-pay (~4 GW from AGEL) plus 3,500 MWh BESS, but the sell side is thin-~350 MW of C&I signed, with rest sold on exchanges and bilateral. With delayed monsoon and elevated merchant prices, the current spread is a high watermark until long-term offtake catches up.

Pipeline Intact, Bidding Cycle Broadens:

Capex ramped to INR 35.0 Bn (1.57x YoY), led by transmission at INR 22.0 Bn (2.2x YoY) on new wins; the UC book stands at INR 717.8 Bn (7,926 ckm) with locked-in levelised tariff of INR 95.1 Bn. Management sees a minimum ~INR 1,000 Bn annual bidding opportunity and expects to sustain ~25% share, implying ~INR 200–250 Bn of capex addition pa. The STU pipeline alone is now pegged at ~INR 200–250 Bn pa, with Maharashtra, Rajasthan and UP turning active as states augment intra-state capacity. On HVDC, Bhadla-Fatehpur is guided for early CY29 and KPS-1 for ~Dec 2029.

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