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Gold

Gold prices dipped by 0.56% to 78,422, as profit booking took hold ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Market speculation suggests a potential second Trump term could drive inflation with expansionary fiscal policies and increased tariffs, spurring gold purchases as a hedge. However, close election polling tempered this effect. The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, following September’s substantial half-point reduction. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by only 12,000 in October, well below expectations of 113,000, largely due to hurricanes and strikes, prompting possible extended rate cuts into next year. Additionally, Q3 GDP grew by an annualized 2.8%, missing the 3% forecast, though robust personal spending indicated resilient consumers amid higher interest rates. Gold demand surged in India during the festival season but remained subdued due to record-high prices. Indian dealers initially charged a $1 premium per ounce on Dhanteras, later offering up to a $5 discount as prices eased. Globally, discounts and premiums fluctuated, with Singapore dealers offering between $0.80 discount to $2.20 premium, and Chinese dealers applying a discount of $11-$14. The World Gold Council reported that Q3 gold demand, excluding OTC trading, held steady at 1,176.5 metric tons, with higher investment offsetting lower jewelry demand. Total demand, including OTC trading, hit a record 1,313 tons, up 5% from last year. ETFs saw inflows of 95 tons, the first increase since early 2022, while bar and coin investments fell 9%. Technically, the gold market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 3.15% to 13,139. Gold finds support at 78,220, with further support at 78,015, while resistance lies at 78,650. A breakout above this could lead to testing 78,875.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 78015-78875.
* Gold dropped on profit booking as markets braced for the upcoming US presidential election and Fed’s policy decision.
* Fed is widely anticipated to implement a modest 25 bps interest rate cut, following a significant half-percentage point reduction in September.
* Nonfarm payrolls rose by 12,000 in October, well below market expectations of 113,000

Silver

Silver settled down by -1.26% at 94284 as investor caution set in ahead of the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. U.S. labor market data showed a notable slowdown in job growth, with only 12,000 jobs added in October against expectations of 113,000, mainly impacted by hurricanes and strikes. While a 25 bps rate cut is anticipated this week, the weaker job data may prompt the Fed to consider additional cuts going forward. U.S. inflation remained elevated, and jobless claims dropped, suggesting continued strength in the labor market, which could delay aggressive rate cuts. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to levels not seen since early July, indicating rising investor caution and pressuring precious metals, including silver. On the economic front, the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized 2.8% in Q3, just under the expected 3%, although resilient consumer spending kept the economy steady. Meanwhile, a strong private-sector jobs report from ADP added support for a tight labor market, giving the Fed room to refrain from larger rate cuts. In India, silver imports are projected to nearly double this year, driven by demand from the solar and electronics sectors and as investors see silver as offering potentially better returns than gold. India imported 3,625 tons last year, but imports in the first half of 2024 alone jumped to 4,554 tons, reflecting rising demand and stockpiling amid tight inventories. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with a 2.97% gain in open interest to 24,189 as prices dropped by 1,199 points. Key support lies at 93625, with further downside testing at 92970. Resistance is expected at 95060, and a break above this level could see prices testing 95840.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 92970-95840.
* Silver dropped as investor caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. presidential election and looming Fed interest rates decision.
* The US economy added only 12K jobs in October, compared to market expectations of 113K
* US inflation data exceeded expectations and jobless claims dropped, pointing to continued labor market strength.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 0.6% to 6,024, driven by OPEC+'s decision to delay a planned output increase by a month, extending its 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) cut through December. This move reflects the group’s response to falling prices and tepid demand. Adding to market tensions, geopolitical concerns loom over potential Iranian retaliatory actions toward Israel. In the U.S., the upcoming presidential election, with a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and an expected 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week, are creating additional market dynamics. In China, the National People’s Congress will discuss new stimulus measures, focusing on economic support to tackle local government debt. Money managers trimmed their net long U.S. crude positions by 17,037 contracts, signaling caution as U.S. oil production hit a record high of 13.4 million bpd in August, driven by increased output in Texas and New Mexico. U.S. crude inventories fell by 0.515 million barrels for the week ending October 25, 2024, while gasoline stocks dropped by 2.7 million barrels, indicating stronger demand than expected. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth for 2025 is forecasted to be slightly lower, influenced by weakened economic activity in China and North America, with U.S. demand estimates for next year now pegged at 20.5 million bpd. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 6.24% drop in open interest to 13,202 contracts. Crude oil has support at 5,959, with a further level at 5,894, while resistance is expected around 6,068, potentially testing 6,112 if upward momentum continues.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5894-6112.
* Crude oil surged following OPEC+'s decision to postpone planned output increases by a month.
* The group announced it would extend its current output cut of 2.2 mbpd into December.
* Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions – CFTC

Natural gas

Natural gas prices surged by 3.18% to settle at 233.7, supported by concerns over a new hurricane expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, the resumed operations of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, and stronger-than-anticipated demand forecasts. Open interest in NYMEX natural gas futures hit a record high for the third consecutive day, reaching 1.767 million contracts on November 1. In the Lower 48 U.S. states, average gas output for October slightly decreased to 101.7 bcfd from September's 101.8 bcfd, still below December 2023’s record high of 105.5 bcfd. Recent daily production has dipped by about 2.3 bcfd over the last three days, hitting a preliminary two-week low of 101.0 bcfd. Weather forecasts indicate warmer-than-average conditions through mid-November, although seasonal cooling should increase gas demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a slight decline in 2024 natural gas production to 103.5 bcfd, down from 2023’s record of 103.8 bcfd. However, demand is expected to reach an all-time high of 90.1 bcfd in 2024. The EIA also anticipates record U.S. LNG exports, with volumes projected at 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025. U.S. utilities added 78 billion cubic feet to storage in the week ending October 25, in line with seasonal expectations, pushing storage levels 2.8% higher than last year and 4.8% above the five-year average. Technically, natural gas is under short covering as open interest decreased by 8.26% to 19,914 contracts while prices rose by 7.2 points. Support is seen at 222.6, with a potential test of 211.6 on a downside move. Resistance is at 239.8, and a break above could drive prices toward 246, offering key levels for traders to monitor.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 211.6-246.
* Natural gas jumped with another hurricane expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico
* U.S. EIA said utilities added 78 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended Oct. 25.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has eased to 101.7 bcfd so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September.

Copper

Copper prices rose by 0.58% to 852.7, driven by a positive shift in China’s October manufacturing activity, which expanded for the first time in six months. This improvement was attributed to recent economic support programs and a better export outlook nearing year-end. Despite these gains, market participants remain cautious about the scale of China’s stimulus measures and await potential new policies during the legislative meeting from Nov. 4-8. Global supply factors are also influencing copper prices. Chile’s state-owned miner, Codelco, reported a 4.9% year-on-year decline in copper output from January to September, reflecting challenges in one of the world’s largest copper producers. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, slightly lower than July's 73,000 metric tons. For the first eight months, the surplus reached 535,000 metric tons, driven by increased production and stable consumption. China’s copper import data further supports the bullish outlook. Imports of unwrought copper rose to 479,000 metric tons in September, up 15.4% from August, due to improving seasonal demand. Copper concentrate imports were also strong, totaling 2.44 million tons in September, an 8.9% increase year-on-year, indicating healthy industrial demand in China. Technically, the copper market is experiencing fresh buying interest, with a 7.04% increase in open interest to 7,659 contracts, signaling trader optimism. Copper finds support at 848.5, with further support at 844.2, while resistance is expected around 855.8. If this resistance is breached, prices could test the 858.8 level, suggesting a solid upward trend amid supportive macroeconomic and supply factors.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 844.2-858.8.
* Copper gains as China's October manufacturing activity swung back to expansion for the first time in six months
* Copper output from Chile's Codelco down nearly 5% in January – September
* China's top legislative body will meet from Nov. 4-8, where market participants hope Beijing will announce more measures for its economy.

Zinc

Zinc prices fell by -0.89% to 283.4 as profit-taking set in after recent gains driven by supply constraints. Smelters have scaled back zinc production due to tight raw material supplies, but stocks in the LME have risen for three consecutive days, slightly alleviating shortage concerns. This increase in inventories is reflected in the narrowing cash premium over the three-month zinc contract, which dropped from last week’s high of $58 per ton to around $18 per ton. China's economic challenges, particularly in the industrial sector, have added further pressure on zinc demand, with industrial profits plunging in September amid weak demand and falling producer prices. In addition, sanctions on Russia have impacted equipment procurement for zinc producer Ozernoye, potentially delaying their 2025 production target of 320,000 metric tons, which represents about 2.5% of global zinc supply. The ILZSG had included Ozernoye's output in its 2025 forecast of a robust 8.9% growth in non-Chinese mined zinc supply. Meanwhile, the global zinc market deficit increased from 51,000 tons in July to 66,300 tons in August. Despite this, the market surplus for the first eight months of 2024 stands at 127,000 tons, though down significantly from 418,000 tons in the same period in 2023. In China, refined zinc production rose over 2% month-on-month in September, despite an 8% year-on-year decrease, with output expected to continue its slight growth in October due to post-maintenance production boosts. Technically, zinc is facing fresh selling pressure as open interest surged by 14.37% to 3,032 contracts while prices declined by 2.55 points. Key support is at 280.5, with further downside testing possible at 277.6. Resistance is now at 287.8, and a break above this level could target 292.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 277.6-292.2.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained as a raw materials squeeze forces smelters to reduce production
* Chinese data suggesting poor demand prospects added to disappointment with economic stimulus measures
* China’s industrial profits plunged in September, registering the steepest monthly decline of the year, owing to factors including weak demand

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped by 0.27% to 240.9 due to profit booking after recent gains spurred by stronger manufacturing activity in China. A private survey showed Chinese factory activity expanded in October, backed by stimulus measures that aimed to boost growth, elevating demand expectations for aluminium. The metal also gained support from alumina shortages, which triggered systematic fund buying, as Guinea suspended bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), tightening the alumina supply chain. Market dynamics saw notable positions in aluminium futures, with LME data revealing a December buying position exceeding 40% of open interest, and a large selling position for January at 30-39% of open interest. Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 aluminium price forecast to $2,700 per ton, citing potential demand increases in China post-stimulus. In terms of global production, the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported a 1.3% year-on-year rise in primary aluminium output in September to 6.007 million tonnes, driven in part by stable hydropower in China’s Yunnan province, which allowed producers to maintain high operation rates. Chinese aluminium production reached 3.65 million metric tons in September, a 1.2% increase from the previous year. For the first nine months of 2024, output totaled 32.56 million tons, up 4.6% year-on-year. Technically, aluminium is experiencing fresh selling pressure, evidenced by a 0.75% rise in open interest to 3,611 contracts. Key support is at 239, with further support at 237, while resistance stands at 242.2. A breach of this level could push prices up to 243.4, indicating near-term price sensitivity to both supply factors and demand prospects.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 237-243.4.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained as strong manufacturing activity data bolstered demand expectations in China
* Support also seen amid news of alumina shortages triggered systematic buying from funds.
* Manufacturing activity in China expanded in October for the first time in six months

Cotton candy

Cotton candy prices eased by 0.11% to 55,840 as demand remains weak in the yarn markets, compounded by payment delays. However, the downside was limited due to the USDA’s revised cotton production forecast for India, which was lowered to 30.72 million bales for the 2024-25 season, with ending stocks reduced to 12.38 million bales. This adjustment reflects crop losses due to excessive rains and pest issues. In contrast, global production is expected to rise by over 200,000 bales, driven by higher output in China, Brazil, and Argentina, which offsets declines in the U.S. and Spain. India’s cotton acreage has declined approximately 9% year-on-year to 110.49 lakh hectares, attributed to farmers in Gujarat shifting to groundnuts, a more profitable crop. As a result, India’s cotton production for 2024/25 is likely to drop by 7.4%, affecting export volumes. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) projects imports to increase to 2.5 million bales, up from 1.75 million last year, while exports are forecasted to fall from 2.85 million to 1.8 million bales. In the U.S., the cotton balance sheet was revised, with production and exports reduced, largely due to hurricane damage, while global cotton trade expectations fell as China’s import demand weakened. Consequently, world ending stocks were revised slightly down to 76.3 million bales. Technically, the cotton candy market is under fresh selling pressure, with a 0.63% rise in open interest to 160 contracts. Current support is at 55,700, with a further level at 55,550, while resistance is positioned at 56,000. A breakout above this could see prices testing 56,150, suggesting mixed sentiments driven by both domestic and international supply-demand dynamics.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55550-56150.
* Cotton dropped as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago to 30.2 million bales.
* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by -0.5% to settle at 12732, pressured by lower demand amid increased arrivals. However, the downside was limited due to reports of potential crop damage from heavy rains, suggesting greater-than-expected losses. Pressure on prices also stems from a projected 30-35% increase in turmeric acreage for the upcoming season, signaling higher production levels. Weather conditions have recently been favorable for turmeric growth, with regions like Vidarbha and Telangana receiving moderate rainfall, supporting crop development. Despite this, concerns about reduced supply and the possibility of unfavorable weather in the coming months could support prices. In India, turmeric sowing in regions like Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh is reportedly higher than last year, with an estimated total acreage increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares from 3-3.25 lakh hectares. Last year’s unfavorable weather impacted production, leading to an estimated 45-50 lakh bags of turmeric. Even with increased sowing, expected crop output in the upcoming season is estimated at 70-75 lakh bags, with no outstanding stock, which may leave supplies below consumption levels in 2025. Meanwhile, exports from April to August 2024 decreased by 6.46% to 77,584.70 tonnes, though August saw a slight export increase over July. Technically, the market is in long liquidation with open interest decreasing by 0.16% to settle at 12205 as prices fell by 64 points. Turmeric has immediate support at 12474, with further downside potential to test 12216. Resistance stands at 12940, and a break above could push prices to test 13148. These levels are crucial for monitoring as demand and supply factors continue to influence price movements.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12216-13148.
* Turmeric prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* Pressure also seen as the expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year
* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13565.7 Rupees dropped by -1.52 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.79% to 23,825 due to increased arrivals, with around 15,000 bags coming into Unjha daily. Farmers are estimated to hold about 35% of this season’s cumin stock, while the carryover stock for the upcoming season stands at around 20 lakh bags. The cumin export business is expected to pick up post-Diwali, with an anticipated export volume of 15,000-17,000 tons in October. Exports are projected to rise further in November and December, driven by increasing global demand. Sowing of cumin, scheduled to begin after Diwali, is likely to be reduced this year, with production estimated to decline by 10%. In Rajasthan, cumin cultivation may drop by 10-15%, reflecting shifts in planting preferences. India’s competitive pricing remains a key factor, with Indian cumin priced at $3,050 per tonne, $200-250 lower than Chinese cumin. As the most affordable source globally, India is the primary destination for cumin purchases, with demand from countries like China expected to support prices. Middle Eastern tensions have also spurred higher exports from Gujarat, with exports rising 128% year-on-year for July to September 2024, reaching 52,022 metric tonnes. Increased international demand from Europe and other regions for the festive season has further boosted exports, with April-August 2024 exports up by 61.44% year-on-year. Technically, the cumin market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest down by 5.54% to 1,587 contracts. Jeera finds support at 23,260, with additional support at 22,680, while resistance is expected at 24,260. A move above this level could see prices testing 24,680, indicating cautious near-term positioning amid steady export expectations.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22680-24680.
* Jeera dropped as arrival has increased and on an average 15,000 bags are coming daily in Unjha.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24992.9 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

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