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Gold

Gold prices surged by 0.79% to settle at 78,656, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Following Hezbollah’s announcement of intensifying its conflict with Israel and Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, investors sought refuge in gold. Uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. presidential elections also added to the metal’s appeal, while expectations of looser monetary policies from major central banks supported prices further. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered key rates, and the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates for the third time this year, contributing to gold’s upward momentum. However, strong U.S. economic data has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less dovish stance. Meanwhile, physical gold dealers in India offered discounts ahead of the festive season as record-high prices dampened demand. Discounts of up to $8 an ounce were offered, compared to last week’s $3 premium. In China, the world’s top gold consumer, dealers narrowed discounts to $3-$14 below international spot prices, reflecting slightly better demand despite high prices. Retail demand in China has been affected this year due to elevated prices and a slowing economy. In Singapore, gold was sold between a $0.80 discount and a $2.20 premium. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) fell 6% year-on-year in Q2, with jewelry consumption plunging by 19% due to high prices. Technically, gold is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by -1.05% to settle at 15,026 contracts. Gold is finding support at 78,330, and a fall below this could see prices testing 78,010. Resistance is expected at 78,830, and a move above this level may push prices toward 79,010.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 78010-79010.
* Gold climbed bolstered by increased demand for safe-haven assets.
* Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East as tensions flared
* The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential elections is also further increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Silver

Silver prices surged by 2.59% to settle at 99,972, driven by a combination of factors including US election uncertainties, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and growing expectations of further monetary easing. Safe-haven demand for precious metals increased as investors sought protection against geopolitical and economic risks. Additionally, the global shift toward cleaner energy is fueling stronger silver demand, as the metal plays a crucial role in the production of solar panels, a key component in renewable energy technologies. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) further bolstered silver prices by cutting benchmark lending rates to record lows, enhancing the economic outlook for China, the world’s largest consumer of metals. The PBoC lowered its one- and five-year loan prime rates by 25 basis points to 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, and signaled the possibility of additional monetary support later this year. This move is expected to stimulate China's economy and drive increased demand for silver in industrial applications. In India, silver imports are projected to nearly double in 2024 due to rising demand from solar panel manufacturers and electronics producers, as well as investors betting on better returns from silver compared to gold. India’s silver imports reached 4,554 tons in the first half of 2024, a significant jump from just 560 tons in the same period last year. Technically, silver is experiencing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 3.59% to settle at 27,467 contracts, as prices increased by 2,524 rupees. Silver has support at 98,460, and if it falls below this level, it could test 96,940. On the upside, resistance is expected at 100,755, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 101,530.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 96940-101530.
* Silver climbed as US election jitters, escalating Middle East tensions and bets on further monetary easing drove safe-haven demand.
* Expectations of stronger silver demand amid the global shift toward cleaner energy also supported prices.
* The gold/silver ratio has dropped sharply below 80.50 points, falling near to a July low.
 

Crudeoil

Crude oil prices rose by 1.82% to settle at 6,040, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and economic stimulus measures from China, the world’s largest oil importer. Heightened geopolitical risks emerged as conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah intensified, with Israel launching military offensives in Lebanon. Additionally, threats of retaliation against Iran added to the uncertainty. Over the weekend, a Hezbollah drone targeted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence, further escalating the situation. Meanwhile, China's efforts to revive its economy through lending rate cuts and other stimulus measures provided additional support for crude prices. Despite the price gains, concerns about weak demand in China and rising global oil supplies remain. OPEC+ is set to restore output starting in December, which could weigh on prices in the future. In the U.S., weekly oilfield production increased by 100,000 barrels per day, reaching a record 13.5 million bpd. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.192 million barrels in the week ending October 11, 2024, surpassing expectations for a 2.3 million barrel increase. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also saw significant declines, indicating tighter supplies in the U.S. On the demand front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025, citing weaker economic activity in China and North America. World oil demand is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day next year, lower than prior forecasts. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 0.52% to 14,338 contracts. Crude oil is finding support at 5,901, and a drop below this level could lead to a test of 5,762. Resistance is now seen at 6,130, and a move above this could push prices toward 6,220.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5762-6220.
* Crude oil rose driven by Middle East tensions threatening supply disruptions and economic stimulus moves by China.
* Heightened conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel's vows of retaliation against Iran, have increased geopolitical risks.
* China implemented stimulus measures, including lending rate cuts, to revive growth.

Naturalgas

Natural gas prices edged up by 0.36% to settle at 194.7, supported by lower output in October and forecasts for cooler weather ahead, which could boost heating demand next week. Despite these gains, the weather is expected to remain warmer than usual through early November, limiting overall heating demand for the season. Gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September, well below the record 105.5 bcfd seen in December 2023. Looking ahead, demand is forecast to rise from 96.0 bcfd this week to 100.2 bcfd next week due to the anticipated cooler weather. LNG exports have also increased, with flows to U.S. export plants averaging 13.1 bcfd in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. The U.S. remains the world's largest LNG supplier, driven by strong global demand, particularly due to disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects natural gas production to decline slightly in 2024, falling to 103.5 bcfd from 103.8 bcfd in 2023, while consumption is expected to rise to a record 90.1 bcfd in 2024. Storage levels for natural gas increased by 76 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 11, 2024, bringing total storage to 3.075 trillion cubic feet, 3% above the previous year’s levels and 4.6% above the five-year average. Technically, natural gas is seeing short covering, with open interest down by 22.16% to settle at 30,085 contracts. Prices are finding support at 190.7, with further downside potentially testing 186.7. On the upside, resistance is expected at 199.2, with a move above that potentially leading to 203.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 186.7-203.7.
* Natural gas climbed on lower output and forecasts for cooler weather
* That price increase came even though meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through early November.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 bcfd so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September.

Copper

Copper prices rose by 0.5% to settle at 818.85, buoyed by China's central bank lowering its benchmark lending rates to record lows. The People’s Bank of China cut its one- and five-year loan prime rates by 25 basis points, to 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, which boosted optimism about the economic outlook in the world’s top copper consumer. Additionally, the PBOC indicated potential further support for the Chinese economy by possibly lowering banks’ reserve requirements before the year ends. This follows better-than-expected Chinese economic data last week, further supporting market sentiment. On the supply side, concerns persist over copper availability as demand for the metal continues to rise, driven by the global shift toward cleaner energy. In contrast, miners are struggling to increase production to meet this growing demand. China's imports of unwrought copper rose by 15.4% in September from the previous month, reflecting improving seasonal demand and a better consumption outlook. Globally, the refined copper market showed a surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, compared to a 73,000 metric ton surplus in July, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Despite this, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses increased by 7.6% from the previous week. Technically, copper is under short covering, with open interest dropping by -9.64% to 5,724 contracts. The price increase of 4.05 reflects strong market momentum, with support at 815.3 and a potential test of 811.6. On the upside, resistance is expected at 822.1, and a move above this level could push prices toward 825.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 811.6-825.2.
* Copper climbed after China’s central bank reduced benchmark lending rates to record lows, boosting the economic outlook.
* The People’s Bank of China lowered its one- and five-year loan prime rates by 25 basis points to 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.
* Expectations of strong copper demand driven by the shift toward cleaner energy raised concerns about a shortfall

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 2.03% to settle at 289.6, driven by optimism over China's economic stimulus and supply concerns. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) slashed its one- and five-year loan prime rates to record lows, with the five-year rate reduced to 3.6%, potentially easing pressure on household mortgages and boosting home buying. This, combined with support for China’s equity markets and a potential cut in banks' reserve requirements, lifted the demand outlook for zinc, as China remains a key consumer of the metal. Additionally, China’s economic growth for the third quarter exceeded expectations, although it slowed to the weakest pace since Q1 2023. Better-than-expected retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments in September also contributed to the positive sentiment for zinc demand. On the supply side, the global zinc market faces a significant deficit in 2024, as a raw material squeeze has led smelters to reduce refined metal production. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) revised its outlook from a previously forecasted surplus of 56,000 tons to a 164,000-ton deficit. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc production rose by over 2% month-on-month in September, though it was down 8% year-on-year, with smelters ramping up output after maintenance. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest falling by 8.5% to settle at 1,852 contracts. Zinc has support at 285.1, and if it breaks below this level, it could test 280.5. On the upside, resistance is expected at 292.3, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 294.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 280.5-294.9.
* Zinc gains after China’s central bank slashed benchmark lending rates to record lows, lifting the demand outlook.
* China’s economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, but at the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2023.
* PBOC moved to support China’s equity market and announced that it could lower banks’ reserve requirements again before the year ends.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.91% to settle at 239.55, driven by higher production costs as alumina prices reached record highs. This has increased the cost burden for aluminium producers. Additionally, China, the world's largest aluminium producer, cut its benchmark lending rates as part of a broader package of stimulus measures aimed at reviving its slowing economy. Market participants expect further stimulus from China following data that showed economic growth slowing, reinforcing the need for additional support measures. Global primary aluminium output rose 1.3% year-on-year in September to 6.007 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). In China, aluminium production increased by 1.2% year-on-year in September, with daily output averaging 121,667 tons, driven by strong demand and profitable margins for producers. China's industrial production also expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in September, exceeding expectations, while retail sales grew by 3.2% during the same period, further boosting optimism for demand in the aluminium market. Meanwhile, improved hydropower supply in China's Yunnan province helped aluminium producers maintain high operational rates, contributing to the steady supply of aluminium. Despite the increased production, higher prices have kept profit margins strong, with industry profit averaging 2,379 yuan per ton in September. Technically, the aluminium market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 0.48% to 1,453 contracts. Prices increased by 2.15, reflecting market strength. Support is now seen at 237.5, and a fall below this level could test 235.4. On the upside, resistance is likely at 240.7, and a move above this level could push prices toward 241.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 235.4-241.8.
* Aluminium prices rose as the cost of raw material alumina set a record high, increasing production costs.
* Global aluminium output rises 1.3% year on year in September
* Hydropower supply in the southwestern Yunnan province remained sufficient amid improved rainfall during the summer season

Cottoncandy

Cotton candy prices settled down by -0.26% at 57,270, pressured by weak demand in the yarn markets and payment constraints. The USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest infestations, while ending stocks have also been reduced to 12.38 million bales. Despite this, global cotton production is expected to rise, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting declines in the U.S. and Spain. In India, cotton acreage has dropped by around 9% in the current kharif season, falling to 110.49 lakh hectares from 121.24 lakh hectares last year, leading to an anticipated 7.4% drop in production to 30.2 million bales. India's lower production is expected to reduce exports to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million bales a year ago, while cotton imports are projected to rise to 2.5 million bales, supporting global prices. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) attributes the decline in production to a significant reduction in planted area, especially in Gujarat, where farmers have shifted to more profitable crops like groundnuts. On the global front, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 reflects lower production, mill use, and exports due to damage from Hurricane Helene. World ending stocks are slightly reduced to 76.3 million bales, with weaker demand from China. Technically, cotton candy is under fresh selling, with open interest rising by 1.52% to 134 contracts. Prices have fallen by 150, with support now at 56,980 and a further test at 56,700. Resistance is likely at 57,520, and a move above this level could push prices toward 57,780.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56700-57780.
* Cotton dropped as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago to 30.2 million bales.
* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by -1.46% to settle at 13,656 due to lower demand amid rising arrivals in the market. However, the downside remained limited as reports of crop damage due to heavy rains suggest potential losses may be higher than initially estimated. Total arrivals were lower at 14,915 bags, compared to the previous session's 16,975 bags, driven largely by a significant drop in arrivals at Sangli, which reported only 890 bags, down from 11,000 bags in the prior session. Despite increased sowing in key regions like Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, adverse weather conditions and low supply could push prices higher in the coming weeks. On the other hand, increased sowing activity, particularly in the Erode line where sowing is reported to be double compared to last year, and low export demand may limit price gains. Turmeric sowing in the country is estimated to increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year, up from 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year. Despite this increase, the upcoming crop is expected to be around 70-75 lakh bags, with no outstanding stock, which could reduce availability in 2025. Turmeric exports during April-August 2024 dropped by 6.46% year-on-year, although August exports saw a 5.72% rise compared to July. Imports of turmeric surged by 340.21% during the same period, signaling rising domestic demand. Technically, turmeric is experiencing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 0.4% to settle at 12,510 contracts while prices fell by 202 rupees. Support is at 13,492, and if breached, prices could test 13,326. Resistance is likely at 13,862, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 14,066.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13326-14066.
* Turmeric prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Aug 2024, dropped by 6.46 percent at 77,584.70 tonnes compared to Apr-Aug 2023.
* India’s festival season demand is expected to surge, particularly with CAIT forecasting 48 lakh marriages in the upcoming season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14015.1 Rupees gained by 0.03 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged up by 0.08% to settle at 25,310, supported by an estimated 30% of the crop still being held by farmers. The upside was limited by selling pressure in the Unjha market, where daily arrivals of jeera ranged between 12,000 to 17,000 bags, with 60% coming from Rajasthan and the rest from local farmers, traders, and stockists. Despite this, short covering provided some price support. Jeera exports have seen a significant boost due to tensions in the Middle East, with demand for Indian cumin rising. Export prices are currently quoted between $3,150 and $3,200 per tonne, with Pakistan and China buying Indian cumin due to its price advantage over Chinese cumin. In the last month, 100 to 125 containers of jeera were exported, with significant trade going to China, Bangladesh, and other countries. Cumin exports during April-August 2024 rose by 61.44%, totaling 103,614 tonnes compared to 64,179 tonnes in the same period last year. However, August exports fell by 27.92% compared to July, though they were still 88.53% higher than August 2023. The Middle East, typically a major cumin producer, has faced supply challenges, boosting demand for Indian cumin, particularly with upcoming festive seasons contributing to the surge. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down by 4.33% to settle at 1,725 contracts as prices gained 20 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 25,180, with a break below this level potentially testing 25,060. On the upside, resistance is seen at 25,430, and a move above could push prices toward 25,560.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 25060-25560.
* Jeera settled flat as it is estimated that 30 percent of cumin is still available with the farmers.
* Tensions in the Middle East has resulted in good export business from Gujarat
* The arrival of Ramzan earlier this year will increase domestic consumption.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25536.7 Rupees dropped by -0.29 percent.

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