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Gold 

Gold prices rose by 0.99% to settle at 77,411 as market participants anticipated a potential rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The dollar index eased from a recent high, following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, which brought new market uncertainties. China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for the sixth consecutive month in October. Meanwhile, the Bank of England lowered its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% in November, with 8 of the 9 MPC members supporting the cut, reflecting slowing UK inflation, which fell to a three-year low of 1.7% in September. Gold demand in India saw an uptick with festival purchases, though volumes were lower due to high prices. Indian dealers charged a premium of up to $1 on Dhanteras, then offered discounts up to $5 later. Singapore saw premiums ranging from a $0.80 discount to a $2.20 premium, while Chinese discounts were between $11 and $14. Global gold demand, excluding OTC trading, remained steady year-on-year at 1,176.5 metric tons in Q3, with higher investment offsetting weaker jewelry consumption. The World Gold Council reported total gold demand, including OTC trades, rose 5% to 1,313 tons, a quarterly record. Notably, physically-backed ETFs recorded inflows of 95 tons, while bar and coin investments fell by 9%. Gold jewelry consumption declined 12%, while central bank purchases dropped by 49%. On the supply side, mine production grew 6%, reaching a record level, and recycling increased by 11%. Technically, gold is experiencing short covering, with open interest down 2.67% to 10,605 and prices up by 756 rupees. Support for gold is at 76,650, with further support at 75,895, while resistance is expected at 77,810, and a move above could see prices reaching 78,215.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 75895-78215.
* Gold rises as trader’s brace for Fed rate decision
* The Fed lowered the funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%, in line with expectations
*  The dollar index eased from a four-month high, following Republican Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election.

Silver 

Silver prices rose by 1.64% to settle at 92,313, as the dollar index eased to 104.5 after its previous 1.7% surge, driven by Donald Trump’s election victory. The U.S. labor market displayed resilience, with initial unemployment claims inching up by 3,000 to 221,000 but still below recent averages, indicating ongoing strength. Additionally, U.S. unit labor costs in Q3 rose by 1.9% annually, exceeding forecasts and reflecting a rise in hourly compensation and productivity. Market attention is now centered on the Fed's potential 25 bps rate cut after a recent 50 bps reduction, with a 67% probability of another cut in December, down from 77% due to inflationary concerns linked to Trump’s policies. The market is now forecasting a total rate cut of about 1 percentage point by September 2025, a slightly lowered estimate compared to earlier in the week. India's silver imports have nearly doubled this year due to robust demand from the solar and electronics sectors, alongside investor interest as silver shows stronger returns than gold. India's imports surged to 4,554 tons in the first half of 2024, a substantial increase from 560 tons a year ago, following inventory depletion in 2023, as industrial buyers stock up to counter rising prices. On the technical front, the silver market is under short-covering pressure, with open interest down by 7.1% to settle at 23,378, as prices gained 1,493 rupees. Silver finds support at 90,725, with potential downside to 89,135 if this level is breached. Resistance is currently at 93,215, and a move above this could lead to testing the 94,115 level, indicating further upside momentum if resistance levels are cleared.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 89135-94115.
* Silver rose as the dollar index dipped to 104.5 after a 1.7% surge the previous day.
* The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the US edged higher by 3,000.
* Traders have scaled back expectations for further Fed cuts amid concerns about inflation pressures from Trump’s policies

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices rose by 0.89% to settle at 6,129, supported by OPEC+'s decision to delay planned output increases by a month and a weaker dollar. After Donald Trump’s election win initially triggered a sell-off, pushing oil prices down over $2 as the dollar rallied, the market recovered. China's crude oil imports declined 9% year-over-year in October, totaling 44.7 million metric tons, while imports for January-October fell by 3.4% to 457 million metric tons. Trump's potential reimposition of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could cut global supply by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd). Similarly, Trump’s previous sanctions on Venezuelan oil could be reinstated, tightening supply. Additionally, 17% of crude output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, equivalent to 304,418 bpd, was temporarily halted due to Hurricane Rafael, further supporting prices. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels last week, surpassing the expected 1.8 million increase. Crude stocks at the Cushing hub also increased by 0.522 million barrels, while gasoline stocks rose by 0.412 million, against forecasts of a 1.2 million decrease, and distillate stocks increased by 2.947 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its oil demand growth forecast downward due to slowing economic activity in China and North America. U.S. production in 2025 is expected to reach 13.54 million bpd, down from 13.67 million bpd previously forecasted. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest dropping 5.92% to 13,196 while prices rose by 54 rupees. Support is at 6,018, with further support at 5,908, while resistance is expected at 6,188, and a move above this could see prices testing 6,248.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5908-6248.
* Crude oil gains supported by the OPEC+'s decision to delay output increase plans by a month, and a weaker dollar.
* China's October crude oil imports fall 9% on the year
* Trump expected to ramp up sanctions on Iranian oil

Natural gas 

Natural gas prices fell by 2.33% to close at 226.6, as mild weather forecasts through mid-November pointed to reduced heating demand. Earlier concerns around Hurricane Rafael's potential impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast led energy firms to cut gas production from Gulf of Mexico platforms by about 7%, although this region now contributes only around 2% to U.S. gas output, down from 20% two decades ago. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states dipped to 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early November, down from October's 101.3 bcfd and far below the record 105.3 bcfd reached in December 2023. Weather projections indicate warmer-than-normal temperatures across the U.S. through at least November 22, supporting lower gas demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast a slight drop in dry gas production from 103.8 bcfd in 2023 to 103.5 bcfd in 2024, with consumption reaching a new high at 90.1 bcfd before easing in 2025. LNG exports are expected to grow, with 2024 projections at 12.1 bcfd, rising to 13.8 bcfd in 2025, signaling robust international demand. U.S. utilities added 69 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage, pushing total stocks to 3.932 trillion cubic feet, slightly above expectations, with levels 215 billion cubic feet above the five-year average. On the technical side, natural gas is experiencing fresh selling pressure, as evidenced by a 12.31% increase in open interest to 23,133, with prices down by 5.4 rupees. Support is now at 222.5, with a further downside test possible at 218.4 if breached. Resistance is at 232.7, and a move above this level could drive prices to test 238.8, indicating potential volatility in near-term trading.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 218.4-238.8.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for mild weather to continue through mid-November
* US utilities added 69 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage to 3.932 trillion cubic feet
* Stocks were 157 bcf higher than last year and 215 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,717 bcf.

Copper

Copper prices rose by 2.85% to settle at 849.9, driven by optimism that potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods might prompt Beijing to introduce more aggressive stimulus measures. Investors are also watching for updates from China’s National People’s Congress, where increased local government debt is being considered to boost spending. Supporting this sentiment, China’s trade data for October showed a wider-than-expected surplus, with exports rising and imports falling, signaling a potentially stronger economic recovery. China's manufacturing and services activities both expanded in October, with services growth hitting a three-month high. The global refined copper market reported a 54,000 metric ton surplus in August, down from a 73,000 metric ton surplus in July, according to the ICSG. For the year’s first eight months, the surplus totaled 535,000 metric tons, significantly higher than last year’s 75,000 metric tons. Copper output in August reached 2.32 million metric tons, while consumption stood at 2.27 million metric tons. Adjusted for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, the surplus was 42,000 metric tons. China's unwrought copper imports rose 1.1% year-over-year in October, reaching 506,000 metric tons, driven by seasonal demand and a positive consumption outlook. Copper imports for the first ten months of 2024 were up by 2.4%, totaling 4.6 million tons. Premiums for copper delivery to Yangshan warehouses hit $69 per ton in October, signaling robust import demand, although it eased to $48 per ton last week. Technically, the copper market is under short covering, with open interest down 21.26% to 7,179 while prices rose by 23.55 rupees. Copper has support at 837.8, with further support at 825.7, while resistance is seen at 856.6, with a potential move above that level pushing prices toward 863.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 825.7-863.3.
* Copper rose as optimism grew that potential US tariffs on Chinese goods could prompt Beijing to introduce more aggressive stimulus measures.
* China's imports of unwrought copper rose in October from a year earlier, boosted by improving seasonal demand.
* Chile, saw exports of the metal reach $4.68 billion in October, up 26% from a year earlier, the central bank said

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 2.3% to close at 284.95 as investors assessed the potential impact of Donald Trump’s election victory and anticipated stimulus from China. Market sentiment has been affected by a single party holding up to 79% of available LME zinc stocks, although supply concerns eased with an influx of 10,275 tons into LME warehouses in Singapore, bringing total stocks to 242,425 tons. Nonetheless, supply pressure persists, with smelters facing production constraints due to a raw materials shortage, limiting upside potential for prices. The cash-to-three-month zinc premium narrowed to $18 per ton, down from last week's high above $58, as new stock arrivals mitigated immediate supply worries. Global supply dynamics are also impacted by production challenges for Russia’s Ozernoye, which faces sanctions-related equipment procurement issues, casting uncertainty over its 2025 zinc output target of 320,000 tons, representing about 2.5% of global supply. Meanwhile, the global zinc market deficit widened to 66,300 metric tons in August, up from 51,000 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). China’s refined zinc production in September rose over 2% month-on-month, although it saw an 8% year-on-year decline, as domestic smelters increased output following maintenance recoveries in several regions. From a technical perspective, zinc is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 8.02% to 2,846, as prices rose by 6.4 rupees. Zinc finds immediate support at 281.8, with potential further downside to 278.5 if this level is breached. Resistance is now at 287.7, and a break above this level could see prices testing 290.3, signaling a continuation of upward momentum if resistance levels hold strong.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.5-290.3.
* Zinc rebounded amid hopes for more stimulus from China.
* Support also seen amid a raw materials squeeze forces smelters to reduce production of refined metal.
* The deliveries are behind the narrowing premium for the cash contract over three-month zinc to about $18 a ton, down from peak above $58 a ton.

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices rose by 2.77% to settle at 246.9, as supply disruptions in the global alumina market and tight bauxite availability constrained capacity growth. Environmental regulations in China’s Shanxi and Henan provinces have restricted bauxite mining since late 2023, and no substantial recovery is expected. China's aluminium smelting capacity increased slightly in 2024, reaching 43.51 million tons in September, supported by capacity expansions in Southwest China and additional production from Xinjiang. Demand for alumina has also risen, driven by smelters in Yunnan Province that canceled planned winter cuts due to sufficient electricity supply. Supply pressures intensified as Guinea, a major alumina exporter, halted bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) about two weeks ago. Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 aluminium price forecast to $2,700 per ton, anticipating stronger demand from China following stimulus measures. Global aluminium output for September increased by 1.3% year-on-year, totaling 6.007 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute. China’s aluminium exports surged, reaching 5.5 million tons in the first ten months of 2024, up 17% year-on-yearThe National Bureau of Statistics reported daily output averaged 121,667 tons in September, slightly higher than August. State-backed research from Antaike estimated the industry’s profit at 2,379 yuan per ton in September, a 12.2% increase from the prior month. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying momentum with open interest rising by 24.43% to 4,349 as prices climbed 6.65 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 242.9, with further support at 238.9, while resistance is seen at 249.8, with a potential move above leading to a test of 252.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 238.9-252.7.
* Aluminium gains as the global alumina market has faced constant supply disruptions.
* China’s unwrought aluminum & aluminum products exports rise in Jan-Oct y-o-y
* Smelters in Yunnan Provinces cancelled planned winter production cuts due to sufficient electricity reserves.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices rose by 0.79% to settle at 56,050, driven by concerns over India's declining cotton production for the 2024/25 season, forecasted to fall by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to lower acreage and crop damage from excessive rains. The USDA revised its projection for India, lowering production to 30.72 million bales and cutting ending stocks to 12.38 million bales. Global cotton production estimates rose slightly, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting reductions in the U.S. and Spain. Acreage in India’s current kharif season declined by 9%, totaling 110.49 lakh hectares compared to 121.24 lakh hectares the previous year. The reduction in planted area is mainly due to a shift toward groundnuts, particularly in Gujarat, driven by better returns. India’s cotton exports are expected to decrease to 1.8 million bales from 2.85 million a year ago, while imports may rise to 2.5 million bales. Domestic demand is projected to remain stable at 31.3 million bales. In the U.S., cotton production was lowered by over 300,000 bales to 14.2 million due to damage from Hurricane Helene, while exports were reduced by 300,000 bales to 11.5 million in response to weaker global import demand. World trade forecasts were revised down, primarily due to a reduction in China’s imports, while global ending stocks were slightly reduced to 76.3 million bales. Technically, the cottoncandy market is in a fresh buying phase with open interest rising by 2.44% to 168 as prices gained by 440 rupees. Support is at 55,860, with further support at 55,670, while resistance is expected at 56,200, with a potential move above this level leading prices to test 56,350.

Trading Ideas:

# Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55670-56350.
# Cotton gains as India's cotton production estimated to drop to 7-year low in 2024-25
# India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago to 30.2 million bales.
# Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain.
# In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices dipped by 0.64% to settle at 13,092, as demand weakened amid increased arrivals and anticipated higher acreage for the upcoming season, estimated to be 30-35% above last year, signaling a potential rise in production. Despite this, price declines were limited by concerns over crop damage from heavy rains, which could result in losses higher than initially expected. Recent weather conditions, including dry spells followed by light rains, have supported crop growth. In the Vidarbha region, rainfall measured 20 mm last week, while turmeric areas in Telangana received 18 mm, benefiting the crop. With harvest still five months away, a combination of limited supply and unpredictable weather could lend support to prices in the near future. Internationally, dry conditions in Indonesia accelerated peak harvesting, which may add further supply pressure, particularly as low export demand continues. Turmeric sowing has reportedly doubled in Erode compared to last year, with Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh also seeing a 30-35% increase in sowing. The country’s total turmeric acreage is estimated to rise from last year’s 3-3.25 lakh hectares to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this season. In trade data, turmeric exports during April-August 2024 fell by 6.46% to 77,584.70 tonnes, while imports surged by 340.21% to 14,073.83 tonnes, indicating heightened domestic demand. In Nizamabad, a major turmeric spot market, prices rose by 1.82% to close at 13,681.8. Technically, turmeric is under long liquidation, with a 0.43% drop in open interest to 11,570 as prices fell by 84 rupees. Immediate support is at 12,964, with a potential test of 12,834 if breached. Resistance is seen at 13,310, and a move above this level could push prices toward 13,526, suggesting cautious optimism in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

# Turmeric trading range for the day is 12834-13526.
# Turmeric prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
# Pressure also seen as the expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year.
# Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13681.8 Rupees gained by 1.82 percent.
 

Jeera 

Jeera prices rose by 2.26% to settle at 25,140, supported by short covering and anticipated export demand, even as arrival rates have increased. Around 15,000 bags of cumin are arriving daily at Unjha, with farmers estimated to hold approximately 35% of their season's stock. The season began with a carryover stock of around 20 lakh bags. With Diwali behind, export demand is expected to pick up in November and December. Cumin production this year is projected to decline by 10%, with Rajasthan’s cultivation area decreasing by an estimated 10-15%. This production drop, combined with Indian cumin’s price advantage, is expected to support demand. Currently, Indian cumin is priced around $3,050 per tonne, making it cheaper than Chinese cumin by about $200-250, attracting significant international interest, especially from China. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also boosted cumin seed exports from Gujarat, with July-September exports rising 128% year-on-year to 52,022 metric tonnes. Export demand from Europe and other regions has surged as well, driven by upcoming festive seasons. From April to August 2024, jeera exports increased by 61.44% to 103,614.46 tonnes compared to the same period last year. In August alone, exports rose 88.53% year-on-year to 12,544.44 tonnes. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with open interest up by 3.93% to 1,665 as prices rose by 555 rupees. Jeera has support at 24,730, with further support at 24,310, while resistance is anticipated at 25,470, and a move above this level could see prices testing 25,790.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24310-25790.
* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped as arrival has increased.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25025.05 Rupees gained by 0.34 percent.

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