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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.41% to settle at 76,360, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields as investors await crucial economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged caution in cutting interest rates, noting the economy’s solid footing, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that further rate cuts are likely as the Fed nears its 2% inflation target. Market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the Fed's November meeting are at 90%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Central banks continue to be significant buyers of gold, driven by financial and strategic motives. However, China's central bank has refrained from buying gold for five consecutive months. In the second quarter, global central banks increased their gold purchases by 6% to 183 tons, though overall buying is expected to slow by 150 tons in 2024. Physical gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months as festival season boosted jewellery buying, while weak consumer sentiment dampened demand in China post-holidays. Indian dealers offered premiums of up to $3 per ounce, reversing last week’s discounts. Globally, gold demand excluding over-the-counter trading fell 6% year-on-year to 929 metric tons in Q2 2024, with jewellery consumption dropping 19% due to high prices, according to the World Gold Council. On the technical front, gold is under fresh buying pressure with open interest rising by 1.87%. Gold is currently supported at 75,920, with a potential test of 75,480 if it moves lower. Resistance is expected at 76,645, and a break above this level could see prices testing 76,930.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 75480-76930.
* Gold prices held steady as the U.S. dollar remained near two-month highs
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller urged "more caution" in upcoming interest rate cuts.
* China's central bank held back on buying gold for a fifth straight month in September.

Silver

Silver settled 0.98% higher at 91,623 as the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note eased below 4.06%, down from recent highs of over 4.1%. This decline came after the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -11.9 in October, the lowest in five months, signaling a contraction in New York's business activity. Concerns over the US economy resurfaced, prompting traders to scale back expectations of further aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Despite the Fed’s initial 50 basis point cut in September, markets are now pricing in a slower pace of easing, with a 90% probability of a 25 bps cut in November and 45 bps of cuts for the year. Globally, China's economy is forecasted to grow by 4.8% in 2024, slightly below the government target, which has increased pressure for additional stimulus measures. In India, silver imports are set to nearly double this year, driven by rising demand from the solar and electronics sectors. Investors are also turning to silver as they expect it to outperform gold in the coming months. India imported 4,554 tons of silver in the first half of 2024, up sharply from 560 tons a year earlier, reflecting the need to replenish depleted inventories and hedge against price increases. Technically, the silver market witnessed short covering as open interest fell by 1.99% to 27,172 contracts, while prices rose by 887 rupees. Silver is now supported at 90,220, with a test of 88,820 possible if support is breached. Resistance is expected at 92,505, and a move above this level could push prices toward 93,390.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 88820-93390.
* Silver gains after a weaker-than-expected NY Empire State Manufacturing Index raised concerns about the US economy.
* The Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term.
* A string of U.S. data has shown the economy to be resilient, while inflation in September rose slightly more than expected.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices fell sharply by 5.16% to settle at 5,923, driven by reports that Israel would not target Iranian oil, easing concerns about supply disruptions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, citing a slowdown in Chinese demand and projecting a market surplus in 2025 without significant supply disruptions. The IEA now expects Chinese demand to grow by only 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year after a significant drop of 500,000 bpd in August 2024, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. OPEC also revised its demand growth forecast downward, marking its third consecutive revision. The organization now predicts global oil demand to rise by 1.93 million bpd in 2024, down from the previously forecasted 2.03 million bpd. Additionally, Russia reduced its crude oil output by 28,000 bpd in September to 9 million bpd, slightly above the OPEC+ group's quota. In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 5.81 million barrels for the week ended October 4, 2024, the largest increase in over five months. However, gasoline stocks fell by 6.304 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 1.1 million decline. Distillate stocks also dropped by 3.124 million barrels, higher than the consensus of a 1.75 million decline. Technically, crude oil is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 18.29%. Support for crude oil is seen at 5,812, and a move below this level could test 5,702. On the upside, resistance is expected at 6,091, and a move above could lead prices towards 6,260.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5702-6260.
* Crude oil tumbled as Israel is willing not to strike Iranian oil targets, easing concerns about supply disruptions.
* IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth view, sees surplus looming
* OPEC cuts 2024, 2025 global oil demand growth view again

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 0.33% higher at 211.6, driven by cooler weather in the Northeast and Midwest, increasing near-term heating demand. However, forecasts for warmer weather across much of the country beyond mid-October tempered the upward momentum. Recent price pressure has also been influenced by a reduction in gas consumption by power generators following Hurricanes Milton and Helene, which disrupted electricity for millions. Meanwhile, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a 60% chance of a tropical disturbance strengthening near Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. U.S. gas output in the Lower 48 states declined to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September, marking a continued decrease from the record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Looking ahead, gas demand is expected to drop from 97.3 bcfd this week to 96.0 bcfd next week as warmer weather takes hold. LNG exports from the U.S. averaged 12.8 bcfd in October, up slightly from September, though still below the December 2023 record of 14.7 bcfd. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decline in natural gas production in 2024 to 103.5 bcfd, down from 2023’s record 103.8 bcfd, with demand expected to rise to a record 90.1 bcfd. Meanwhile, utilities added 82 billion cubic feet of gas to storage, lifting inventories to 3.629 trillion cubic feet, 3.5% higher than the same period last year and 5.1% above the five-year average. Technically, natural gas saw short covering as open interest fell by 4.9% to 38,033 contracts, while prices rose by 0.7 rupees. Support is at 206.9, with a test of 202.1 possible if breached. Resistance is at 215.6, and a move above could push prices to 219.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 202.1-219.5.
* Natural gas edged up as cool weather in the Northeast and Midwest adds near-term heating demand
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 101.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September
* Average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 97.5 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week.


Copper

Copper prices declined by 1% to settle at 817.15, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over China’s economic recovery. Recent data showed that China’s export growth slowed significantly in September, and imports unexpectedly decelerated, intensifying concerns about weak domestic demand. Additionally, China’s producer price deflation deepened, raising expectations for more stimulus measures, although details regarding the size or timing of the promised stimulus package remain unclear. Weak demand from China, the world’s largest copper consumer, continues to be a major concern, with new yuan loans and inflation falling below expectations. The global refined copper market showed a surplus of 91,000 metric tons in July, slightly down from 113,000 tons in June, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first seven months of 2024, the market saw a surplus of 527,000 metric tons, a significant increase from the 79,000-ton surplus during the same period in 2023. World refined copper output in July stood at 2.35 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.26 million metric tons. China's imports of unwrought copper rose by 15.4% in September from the previous month, reaching 479,000 metric tons, reflecting improved seasonal demand. However, this was only slightly below the 480,426 tons imported in September 2023. Technically, copper is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 8.21%. Support is seen at 812.8, and if prices break below this level, they could test 808.4. On the upside, resistance is likely at 823.8, and a move above this level could push prices towards 830.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 808.4-830.4.
* Copper prices slipped pressured uncertainty about China's economic recovery following lacklustre data.
* Data showed China's export growth slowed sharply in September and imports decelerated unexpectedly.
* China's unwrought copper imports rose in September to 479,000 tons, up 15.4% from August.

Zinc

Zinc settled down by 0.64% at 281.6 as China’s latest stimulus announcements failed to meet market expectations, leaving investors uncertain about the size of the support package. The government pledged to increase borrowing to aid the property market and support low-income individuals but did not provide specific details on the scale of the fiscal stimulus, leading to market disappointment. Additionally, metals were pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar amid reduced expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months. The global zinc market faces a significant supply deficit in 2024, as a raw material shortage is expected to force smelters to cut refined metal production. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) revised its forecast from a previously expected surplus of 56,000 metric tons to a deficit of 164,000 tons for 2024. Chinese demand is expected to rise by only 0.7%, reflecting the struggles in the country's property sector. Despite this, global mined zinc production is projected to increase by 6.6% in 2024, largely due to new production in Russia. Technically, the zinc market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 14.97% to 2,278 contracts while prices fell by 1.8 rupees. Zinc is now finding support at 278.4, with a potential test of 275 levels if breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 283.9, and a move above could see prices testing 286. This overall trend reflects market uncertainty and supply constraints weighing on zinc prices.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275-286.
* Zinc dropped as China’s stimulus announcements over the weekend failed to inspire market confidence.
* BMI hiked its zinc price forecast for 2024 to $2,700, citing that tighter market fundamentals propel prices higher.
* Goldman Sachs raised China's gross domestic product forecast to 4.9% from 4.7% for 2024


Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell by 0.88% to settle at 235.5, weighed down by insufficient details on China's stimulus plans and downbeat economic data. China pledged to "significantly increase" debt to stimulate growth, but the lack of specific details left investors uncertain. Additionally, deflationary pressures in China worsened in September, increasing expectations for more aggressive stimulus measures to revive economic activity. Meanwhile, stocks at Japan's three major ports fell by 4.3% in September to 313,100 metric tons, and aluminium shipment premiums for Japanese buyers rose by 1.7% to $175 per metric ton for the fourth quarter, reflecting concerns about supply amid higher premiums in Europe. On a global scale, aluminium production remains strong, with output reaching 48.2 million tons from January to August 2024, a 3.2% increase year-on-year. China's aluminium output in August hit its highest level since 2002, producing 3.73 million metric tons, a 2.5% rise year-on-year, driven by higher prices and steady profits. However, Rusal expects the global aluminium surplus to narrow in 2025, with demand bolstered by lower borrowing costs and potential Chinese stimulus. The market outside China remains oversupplied, though China's primary aluminium market is in a structural deficit. On the technical side, aluminium is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 2.45%. Support is seen at 233.2, and a break below could lead to a test of 230.9. Resistance is now at 237.3, and a move above this level could push prices toward 239.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 230.9-239.1.
* Aluminium dropped following insufficient stimulus details from Beijing, with downbeat Chinese economic data adding to the decline.
* China pledged to "significantly increase" debt, but left investors guessing on the overall size of the stimulus.
* China's deflationary pressures worsened in September, heightening pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus quickly.


Cotton Candy

Cotton Candy prices settled down by 0.23% at 56,720, driven by moderate demand and weak export activity, particularly to Bangladesh. The USDA lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, with ending stocks reduced to 12.38 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues. Despite lower acreage, India's cotton output is expected to remain similar to last year's levels, supported by higher yields from timely rains and reduced pest activity. However, the cotton acreage has decreased by 11 lakh hectares compared to last year, as farmers shifted to other crops. India's cotton exports for the 2023-24 season are estimated at 28 lakh bales, up from 15.5 lakh bales in the previous year, driven by higher demand from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam. Imports also increased to 16.4 lakh bales, up from 12.5 lakh bales in the previous year. Closing stocks as of September 30, 2024, are estimated at 23.32 lakh bales, down from 28.90 lakh bales a year ago, while consumption is projected at 317 lakh bales for the crop year. In the U.S., cotton production has been lowered due to damage from Hurricane Helene, while global cotton trade is expected to decline, particularly in China, leading to slightly lower global ending stocks. Technically, Cotton Candy is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.76%. Support is seen at 56,620, and a move below this level could test 56,510. Resistance is now expected at 56,870, and a move above this could lead prices to test 57,010.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56510-57010.
* Cotton settled flat amid moderate demand, with weak export activity, particularly to bangladesh.
* USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales.
* Acreage is down by around 9% at 110.49 lakh hectares over 121.24 lh in the same period last year.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 0.58% to settle at 13,842 amid concerns of crop damage due to heavy rains in the Nanded and Hingoli regions, where losses are expected to be higher than initially estimated. The price increase was also supported by a decrease in total arrivals, which were reported at 14,915 bags compared to the previous session’s 16,975 bags. Notably, arrivals in Sangli dropped sharply, reporting only 890 bags compared to 11,000 bags in the previous session. With five months left for the harvest, low supply and unfavorable weather conditions are likely to support prices in the coming weeks. However, price gains were limited due to increased sowing in major turmeric-growing regions. Sowing in the Erode line has doubled compared to last year, while Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh have reported a 30-35% increase in sowing. Turmeric production for 2024 is estimated at 45-50 lakh bags, with increased acreage this season projected to yield 70-75 lakh bags in 2025. Despite the higher production forecast, lower carryover stocks may limit overall supply in the coming year. Turmeric exports during April-July 2024 dropped by 13.97% compared to the same period in 2023, while imports surged by 429.58%, reflecting fluctuating demand dynamics. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 5.78% to settle at 11,900 contracts, while prices rose by 80 rupees. Turmeric finds support at 13,746, with a test of 13,650 possible if support is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 13,898, and a move above this level could push prices toward 13,954.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13650-13954.
* Turmeric gains amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in Nanded and Hingoli areas
* Turmeric exports during Apr- July 2024, dropped by 13.97 percent at 61,609.83 tonnes compared Apr- July 2023
* Stock of Turmeric in NCDEX recognized warehouse was 185 MT
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13963.25 Rupees dropped by -0.48 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.7% to settle at 25,500, pressured by expectations of higher production this season. Despite the price drop, downside was limited due to strong domestic and export demand, alongside tight global supplies. Farmers are also holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices, which has lent some support to the market. The sowing area in Gujarat increased by 104%, and in Rajasthan by 16%, leading to a forecast of a 30% higher production this season, expected to reach 8.5-9 lakh tonnes. On the global front, China's cumin production surged to over 55-60 thousand tons, more than doubling from its previous 28-30 thousand tons. Other regions, such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, also ramped up cumin production due to high prices in the prior season. These increased supplies are expected to bring down prices in the coming months. Additionally, reduced export trade in cumin has contributed to the overall price decline, signaling shifts in global cumin market dynamics. In India, cumin production is at record levels, with Gujarat's output expected to reach 4.08 lakh tonnes, surpassing the previous record of 3.99 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. Rajasthan also saw a 53% increase in production. Jeera exports during April-July 2024 rose by 58.31%, with July 2024 exports increasing by 110.15% compared to the previous year. Technically, Jeera is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 3.23%. Support is currently seen at 24,860, and a move below this level could test 24,200. Resistance is expected at 26,220, and a break above could push prices toward 26,920.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24200-26920.
* Jeera dropped as the expectation of higher production weighed on the prices.
* Jeera exports during Apr-July 2024, rose by 58.31 percent at 91,070.02 tonnes compared to Apr- July 2023.
* Stock of Jeera Unjha in NCDEX recognized warehouse was 750 MT
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26196.6 Rupees gained by 0.14 percent.

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