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Gold

Gold settled up by 0.41% at 75,313, driven by hopes of another substantial U.S. rate cut, with attention turning to upcoming comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. inflation data later this week. The Federal Reserve had delivered a 50-basis-point cut at its last policy meeting, and traders are pricing in a 58% chance of another similar cut next month. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in September, reflecting growing concerns about the labor market. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the U.S. is currently on a "golden path," with the Fed's recent rate cut making sense, and more cuts expected as inflation cools. Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic, also expressed concerns about a weakening labor market, which may prompt further rate reductions. Gold demand in India showed slight improvement but remained below typical levels due to near-record prices. Indian dealers reduced their discounts to $17 an ounce from $22 last week. In China, discounts widened to $12-$14, reflecting weaker demand, while Hong Kong and Japan also saw muted activity. Singapore was an exception, where retail buyers anticipated further price increases, driving premiums of $1 to $2.20. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), India’s gold demand fell 5% in the June quarter but is expected to pick up in the second half of 2024, aided by a reduction in import duties and good monsoon rains. Technically, the market is seeing short covering, with open interest dropping by 27.29% to 6,413 contracts as prices rose by 310 rupees. Gold finds support at 74,880, and a break below could test 74,440 levels, while resistance is likely at 75,880, with a move above potentially testing 76,440.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 74440-76440.
* Gold rose on hopes of another large U.S. rate cut as the spotlight shifted to Fed Powell's comments
* Traders see 58% chance of a 50-bp rate cut in November
* U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September amid mounting fears over the health of the labour market.

Silver

Silver prices settled down by -0.38% at ?92,045, driven by profit booking after an earlier rally supported by dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve and positive industrial demand outlook from China. The Fed’s sharper-than-expected 50 bps rate cut in September has led to growing expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months, as FOMC members pointed to signs of labor market weakening and softening inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee projected that more rate cuts are likely, while Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach to easing policy. Meanwhile, China's central bank introduced a significant monetary stimulus package, boosting optimism for increased investment in silver-intensive green technologies, particularly solar panel production. In India, silver imports are set to nearly double this year, fueled by rising demand from solar panel and electronics manufacturers. Investors are also turning to silver, anticipating better returns compared to gold. India's silver imports surged to 4,554 metric tons in the first half of 2024, compared to 560 tons in the same period last year. This sharp increase in imports is partly attributed to industrial buyers stockpiling the metal due to depleted inventories in 2023 and concerns over rising prices. Technically, the silver market is undergoing long liquidation, as reflected by a -0.61% drop in open interest, settling at 25,841 contracts while prices declined by ?348. Silver is currently finding support at ?91,325, and if this level breaks, it could test ?90,605. On the upside, resistance is expected at ?92,850, with a potential move towards ?93,655 if breached.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90605-93655.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported due to the dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve.
* China's cenbank unveils most aggressive stimulus since pandemic
* Fed’s Goolsbee said he expects many more cuts over the next year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled down by -2.37% at 5,841, as concerns over China’s aggressive economic stimulus measures not being sufficient to significantly boost fuel demand weighed on the market. While the People’s Bank of China has implemented substantial stimulus, market participants are seeking more concrete fiscal approaches to address the nation’s economic challenges. In the U.S., a series of weak data points added to bearish sentiment, including a sharp drop in consumer confidence in September, slowing house price growth, and worsening factory activity. However, the downside was limited by rising Middle East tensions and data showing a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. oil stockpiles fell by 4.34 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories dropped by 3.44 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 1.12 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed a 4.471 million-barrel decrease in crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations of a 1.4 million-barrel drop, though stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub slightly increased. Gasoline and distillate stocks also showed significant declines. In China, crude oil imports in August fell 7% year-on-year, reflecting weak refining margins and low fuel consumption, though imports improved compared to July's low levels. China's annual demand growth for crude oil has slowed post-COVID-19, with year-to-date imports falling 3.1% compared to the previous year. Technically, the crude oil market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 22.14% to 16,016 contracts as prices fell by 142. Support is now seen at 5,772, with a potential test of 5,702 if broken. On the upside, resistance is likely at 5,958, and a move above could push prices to test 6,074.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5702-6074.
* Crude oil declines as investors weigh whether new China stimulus will boost demand
* Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 4.471 million barrels
* Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, went up by 0.116 million barrels, following a 1.979 million barrel fall.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled up by 0.94% at 236.3, driven by forecasts of higher demand over the next two weeks and continued production disruptions ahead of Tropical Storm Helene. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected that Helene would strengthen into a major hurricane as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico, potentially impacting the Florida Panhandle. This weather event has contributed to a reduction in U.S. gas output, which has averaged 102.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August. Over the last five days, production dropped further to a preliminary three-month low of 100.2 bcfd. Milder autumn weather is expected to reduce gas demand slightly in the coming weeks, with forecasts of 98.8 bcfd this week, dropping to 97.6 bcfd next week. However, these forecasts are higher than previously expected. Gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants have also eased slightly to 12.8 bcfd in September, compared to 12.9 bcfd in August. Despite this, the U.S. EIA projects record gas demand in 2024, with domestic consumption expected to rise from 89.1 bcfd in 2023 to 89.9 bcfd in 2024. U.S. utilities added 58 billion cubic feet of gas into storage for the week ending September 13, 2024, surpassing market expectations. This increase brings total gas stockpiles to 3,445 Bcf, which is 194 Bcf higher than last year and 274 Bcf above the five-year average. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh buying, with open interest rising by 6.07% to 19,946 contracts, while prices gained 2.2 rupees. Natural gas finds support at 233.6, and a break below could test 231 levels, while resistance is seen at 240.2, with a move above potentially driving prices toward 244.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 231-244.2.
* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks
* Support also see amid a continued reduction in output ahead of Tropical Storm Helene.
* Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to an average of 102.0 bcfd so far in September

Copper

Copper settled up by 0.5% at 840.65 as China introduced several easing measures to support its economy. The People’s Bank of China announced a 50-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio before year-end and plans to reduce key lending rates, including the seven-day repo rate and loan prime rates. These steps followed the U.S. Federal Reserve's earlier 50 basis point rate cut, boosting global economic sentiment. Additionally, copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 11.1%, signaling tightening supply. However, China's refined copper exports dropped by 56% in August, although they remained 50% higher compared to last August. Copper production in China increased marginally by 0.9% year-on-year, reaching 1.12 million metric tons in August. Global copper market dynamics indicate a surplus, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reporting a 95,000 metric ton surplus in June, up from 63,000 metric tons in May. The refined copper market showed a 488,000 metric ton surplus in the first half of 2024, compared to 115,000 metric tons in the same period last year. Despite this, imports of unwrought copper in China hit a 16-month low in August due to weaker demand, while copper concentrate imports fell by 4.7% year-on-year. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with open interest dropping by 0.45% to 8,140 contracts as prices gained 4.2 rupees. Copper finds support at 835.2, and a break below could test 829.8 levels. Resistance is now expected at 845.1, and a move above this level could drive prices toward 849.6 in the short term.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 829.8-849.6.
* Copper rallied after China unveiled a slate of easing measures to support the economy.
* PBOC Gongsheng said in a rare briefing that the PBOC will cut the RRR by 50 basis points before the year ends.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 11.1% from last Friday.
 

Zinc

Zinc prices settled down by -0.35% at 274.05, driven by profit booking after recent gains spurred by China’s extensive stimulus measures aimed at boosting its economy. China's central bank introduced its largest post-pandemic stimulus, fueling optimism for demand recovery, but higher zinc inventories and weak downstream demand weighed on prices. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased by 4.8% from last Friday, with total zinc ingot inventory at 114,500 metric tons, up 1,100 metric tons from mid-September. The rise in inventory was due to increased arrivals of imported zinc ingots and post-holiday restocking. In terms of trade, refined zinc imports for August 2024 rose to 26,500 metric tons, up 44.24% month-on-month, though down 9.01% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to August increased by 30.72% year-on-year, indicating a stronger demand for refined zinc imports despite a slight decline in exports. On the supply side, the delay in Swedish miner Boliden’s Odda zinc smelter expansion, now expected to be completed in 2025, may lead to tighter future supplies. Furthermore, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 14,000 metric tons in July, down from 36,400 tons in June, pointing to a potential tightening in global zinc supply. China’s refined zinc production in August also dropped by 0.68% month-on-month due to adverse weather conditions, power rationing, and raw material procurement difficulties in various regions, though resumed operations at some smelters helped mitigate the overall decline. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 2.9% to 2,616 contracts. Support is seen at 272.4, with a potential test of 270.7 if breached, while resistance is likely at 276.5, and a break above could push prices to 278.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 270.7-278.9.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained after China unleashed wide-ranging stimulus measures
* Refined zinc imports in August 2024 were 26,500 mt, up 8,200 mt or 44.24% MoM
* China unexpectedly leaving benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled down by -0.72% at 233.75, driven by profit-taking after China unveiled economic support measures. China's central bank lowered the cost of medium-term loans to banks, aiming to boost the economy by injecting funds and easing mortgage burdens. However, global primary aluminium output in August rose by 1.2% year-on-year to 6.179 million tons, with China producing an estimated 3.69 million tons, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). China exported 143,268 tons of alumina in August, mostly to Russia, and left its benchmark lending rates unchanged, though a rate cut is expected soon as part of a broader policy package. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminium production was 5.937 million tons in July, with consumption at 5.809 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 127,900 tons. For the first seven months of 2024, the global market saw a surplus of roughly 930,000 tons. Additionally, aluminium stocks at Japan's three major ports increased by 9.2% in August, reaching 327,300 metric tons. China’s aluminium output also surged to a 21-year high of 3.73 million tons in August, driven by strong profits and ample hydropower supply in the Yunnan province. For the first eight months of 2024, China produced 28.91 million tons of aluminium, up 5.1% year-on-year. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 1.55% to 3,545 contracts while prices dropped by 1.7 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 231.8, and a break below could test 229.6 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 236.5, with a move above potentially pushing prices toward 239.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 229.6-239.
* Aluminium dropped on some profit-taking which kicked in after China unveiled support measures.
* China exported 143,268 tons of alumina last month, down 1.9% from a year earlier.
* China's Aug aluminium imports up 1.9% y/y.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy settled down by -0.87% at 58,240 as profit booking took hold, amidst low demand and cautious buying from mills. The USDA recently lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, citing crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues, and reduced ending stocks to 12.38 million bales. Additionally, cotton acreage during the current kharif cropping season has declined by about 9% compared to last year, standing at 110.49 lakh hectares. Despite these factors, the downside is limited due to the arrival of raw cotton in Punjab mandis. Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year are estimated at around 28 lakh bales, marking an 80% increase from the previous year, driven by higher demand from countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. Imports, meanwhile, rose to 16.4 lakh bales from 12.5 lakh bales the prior year. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates that closing stocks for 2024 are projected at 23.32 lakh bales, down from 28.9 lakh bales a year earlier, while consumption is expected to reach 317 lakh bales. In the U.S., the cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 reflects lower production, exports, and ending stocks due to reduced yields in key producing regions. Globally, cotton production is expected to decline, particularly in India, Pakistan, and the U.S., while world trade and consumption are also revised downward. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged. Prices dropped by 510 rupees, with Cottoncandy now seeing support at 58,030, and a break below could test 57,820 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 58,430, with a move above potentially pushing prices to 58,620.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57820-58620.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking amidst low demand and cautious buying from mills.
* Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year or season ending September are estimated at about 80 per cent at 28 lakh bales
* The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 1.21% to14,706, driven by reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in key growing regions such as Nanded and Hingoli, raising concerns about potential yield losses. Total arrivals dropped to 14,915 bags, down from the previous session's 16,975 bags, with Sangli reporting a sharp fall in arrivals to just 890 bags compared to 11,000 bags in the previous session. This decline in supply, coupled with unfavorable weather conditions, is expected to support prices in the coming weeks. However, the upside remains limited by news of increased sowing. In India, turmeric sowing in key states like Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh has risen by 30-35% compared to last year. Additionally, dry weather in Indonesia has accelerated harvesting, adding downward pressure on global prices due to increased supply. For 2024, turmeric production in India is estimated to be around 70-75 lakh bags, while the outstanding stock from the previous year is projected to be nearly zero. This lower availability could lead to supply constraints in 2025. On the export front, India's turmeric exports fell by 19.52% during April-June 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, while imports surged by 485.40% during the same period, signaling increased domestic demand and lower exports. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, as indicated by a -2.63% drop in open interest, settling at 13,335 contracts while prices rose by176. Turmeric is currently finding support at14,532, with further downside potential to test14,356 if breached. Resistance is seen at14,862, and a move above this level could push prices to15,016.

Trading Ideas:

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14356-15016.
* Turmeric gains amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in Nanded and Hingoli areas.
* Total arrivals were reported at 14,915 bags, lower than the previous session's 16,975 bags.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14700 Rupees gained by 0.65 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled up by 0.75% at 27,010, driven by strong domestic and export demand, along with tight global supplies. Farmers holding back their stocks in anticipation of better prices also supported the market. However, the upside is limited by expectations of higher production. Jeera production is projected to increase by 30% this season, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes, due to a significant rise in cultivation area, especially in Gujarat, where the sowing area has grown by 104%, and in Rajasthan, where it is up by 16%. Globally, cumin production is also on the rise, with China’s output doubling to 55-60 thousand tons. Other major producers like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have also expanded production, which could lead to a price decline as new supplies enter the market. Additionally, reduced export trade has exerted downward pressure on prices. In India, favorable weather and increased sowing areas have resulted in record production levels. Gujarat is estimated to produce 4.08 lakh tonnes, setting a new record, while Rajasthan’s production has risen by 53%. Despite this, jeera exports during April-June 2024 surged by 46.56%, with 73,770.58 tonnes exported, signaling strong demand. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with a drop in open interest by 10.29% to settle at 2,223 contracts while prices rose by 200 rupees. Jeera is finding support at 26,630, and a break below this level could test 26,240. On the upside, resistance is expected at 27,510, and a move above could push prices towards 28,000.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26240-28000.
* Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* Farmers holding back their stocks on expectation of better prices too bolstered prices.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26867.55 Rupees gained by 0.76 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views