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Gold 

Gold prices declined by -0.6% to settle at 74,901 as the U.S. dollar gained strength, driven by expectations of fiscal strategies and potential tariffs under the Trump administration that may heighten inflation. This scenario has shifted market sentiment towards risk assets and reduced the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve from 80% a week ago to 65%. In India, demand for gold has weakened as price volatility discouraged post-festival purchases. Indian dealers offered premiums up to $3 per ounce, compared to a $1 premium to a $5 discount last week, reflecting cautious buying. In contrast, China's central bank has not added to its gold reserves for six consecutive months, and Chinese dealers are offering discounts between $15-$17, up from last week's $11-$14 range. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported stable global demand for gold at 1,176.5 metric tons in Q3, with increased investment activity offsetting weaker jewelry consumption. Total gold demand, including opaque OTC trading, rose 5% to a Q3 record of 1,313 tons, driven by a 97% surge in OTC flows from high-net-worth investors and institutions. Physically-backed gold ETFs saw inflows of 95 tons, marking the first positive quarter since Q1 2022. However, jewelry consumption fell by 12%, and central banks slowed their gold purchases by 49% year-on-year. Technically, the gold market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 2.25% to 10,351 contracts while prices declined by 450 rupees. Key support is now at 74,490, with the next level at 74,075, while resistance is likely at 75,450. A move above this resistance could lead to testing the 75,995 level, indicating limited upside potential in the short term.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 74075-75995.
* Gold prices dipped as the U.S. dollar soared ahead of economic data and comments from Fed officials.
* Fed's Kashkari says deportations could disrupt labor for business.
* Politics remained under the spotlight after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paved the way for snap elections.

Silver

Silver prices rose by 0.16% to 89,327 amid short covering, following a period of decline as the dollar index surged above 105.8, its highest in over four months. Market sentiment was driven by speculation around Donald Trump’s return to office, which has fueled optimism for economic growth via potential deregulation, tax cuts, and tariff hikes, especially on China and the EU. This outlook for increased inflation could limit the Federal Reserve’s capacity to cut rates, supporting safe-haven assets like silver. The silver market continues to face a global structural deficit, projected to shrink by 4% to 182 million ounces in 2024, with a modest 2% growth in supply expected to balance a 1% increase in demand. The Silver Institute attributes record industrial demand, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels, and recovering jewelry demand, to a projected demand total of 1.21 billion ounces for 2024. However, physical investment demand is set to decrease by 16%. Supply is anticipated to grow through a 1% increase in mining output, primarily from Mexico, Chile, and the U.S., alongside a 5% rise in recycling, spurred by an uptick in silverware scrap in Western markets. India, the world’s largest silver consumer, has ramped up imports, with figures doubling year-over-year, reaching 4,554 metric tons in the first half of 2024. Technically, the silver market is under short covering with a 4.99% drop in open interest to 23,112 contracts, as prices rose by 145 rupees. Support stands at 88,515, with a further dip likely to 87,705, while resistance is at 89,895, with a move above potentially pushing prices to 90,465, signaling continued upward momentum.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 87705-90465.
* Silver gains on short covering after prices dropped as dollar climbed reached to its highest level in more than four months.
* Trump trades continued to dominate financial markets.
* Trump’s promises to raise tariffs on key trading partners, especially China and the European Union, added to concerns about inflationary pressures.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 0.24% to 5,776, supported by low-level buying despite downward pressure from OPEC’s revised global demand forecasts. In its latest monthly report, OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), down from last month’s estimate of 1.93 million bpd, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision. Demand in 2025 is also projected lower, with growth estimated at 1.54 million bpd compared to the prior forecast of 1.64 million bpd, driven by uncertainties in demand from China and the global transition to cleaner energy sources. Adding to the sentiment, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) adjusted its own forecasts in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA now projects global oil demand to rise by 1.2 million bpd in 2025, reaching 104.3 million bpd, which is 300,000 bpd lower than prior forecasts. For the U.S., demand is expected to reach 20.5 million bpd in 2025, slightly below previous estimates, while production is projected to grow more modestly to 13.54 million bpd, down from the prior forecast of 13.67 million bpd. On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.149 million barrels for the week ending November 1, exceeding expectations. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub and gasoline inventories also showed unexpected increases, reflecting slower demand. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering, with open interest decreasing by 4.69% to 12,811 contracts as prices rose by 14 rupees. Crude oil finds support at 5,721, with further support at 5,667, while resistance is set at 5,834. A break above this resistance could see prices testing the 5,893 level, suggesting potential for upward momentum in the near term.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5667-5893.
* Crudeoil gains on low level buying support after pressure seen as OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth
* OPEC said world oil demand will rise by 1.82 mbpd in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 mbpd it expected last month.
* OPEC cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell by -0.52% to 246.5 amid a production dip and rising expectations of increased demand as colder weather approaches in late November. Open interest in NYMEX natural gas futures climbed to a record high for the eighth consecutive day, reaching 1.801 million contracts as of November 8, reflecting heightened market activity. Average natural gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. states has declined to 100.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from October's 101.3 bcfd and significantly lower than the December 2023 record of 105.3 bcfd. Daily output recently dropped to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.3 bcfd, further fueling supply concerns. Meteorologists forecast milder-than-usual weather through November 20, with temperatures returning to seasonal norms thereafter. LSEG projects that with colder weather, gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 107.7 bcfd this week to 109.9 bcfd next week. This demand forecast, however, is lower than earlier estimates. The U.S. EIA in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projects a decrease in dry gas production from 103.8 bcfd in 2023 to 103.5 bcfd in 2024, with demand reaching a record 90.1 bcfd. Meanwhile, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to increase from 11.9 bcfd in 2023 to 12.1 bcfd in 2024, and further to 13.8 bcfd in 2025. Technically, natural gas is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.95% to 18,500 contracts as prices declined by -1.3 rupees. Support is at 240.3, with a further dip potentially testing 234.2 levels, while resistance is at 253.5. A break above this could see prices moving toward 260.6, signaling a potential upward correction if demand strengthens.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 234.2-260.6.
* Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a drop in output
* NYMEX open interest hit record high for 8th straight day
* Lower demand seen in next 2 weeks than previously forecast


Copper

Copper prices fell by -1.91% to settle at 805.6, impacted by weak economic data from China, where new bank lending in October was lower than expected at 500 billion yuan, well below the anticipated 700 billion yuan. This decline highlights subdued credit demand in the world’s largest metals consumer, dampening the outlook for industrial metals like copper. Although China’s National People’s Congress announced a CNY 10 trillion debt swap package to help local governments access cheaper loans, the market remains cautious on whether this measure will stimulate enough demand to support copper consumption. Additionally, the strong U.S. dollar, bolstered by expectations of higher interest rates due to potential fiscal expansion under President-elect Trump, has pressured dollar-denominated commodities like copper. On the supply side, Chile’s copper production showed mixed results: state-owned Codelco increased output by 5.2% in September, but BHP’s Escondida mine saw a 5.4% decrease. Globally, the refined copper market registered a surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, following a 73,000 metric tons surplus in July, according to the ICSG. China’s copper imports reflected seasonal demand improvements, with unwrought copper imports rising 1.1% year-on-year to 506,000 tons in October, marking a recovery in domestic demand. However, premiums for copper at the Yangshan port dropped from an intra-year high of $69 per ton to $48, indicating mixed import appetite. Technically, the copper market is seeing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 7.41% to 8,510 contracts as prices declined by 15.7 rupees. Copper finds support at 799.1, with additional support at 792.5, while resistance is set at 817.6. A move above this level could see prices testing 829.5, suggesting limited upside momentum in the near term.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 792.5-829.5.
* Copper slipped after new bank lending in China fell more than expected in October, highlighting weak demand.
* Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans last month, greatly lagging the forecast for 700 billion yuan.
* Chile's state-run copper giant increased production by 5.2% year-on-year in September for a total of 123,100 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices fell by 1.06% to 275.85, as markets weighed the impact of China’s recent economic measures on metal demand. China’s Standing Committee of the People’s National Congress approved a $1.4 trillion debt package aimed at reducing local government financing costs by allowing debt swaps. However, the limited scale of new stimulus disappointed investors, as it lacked significant support for the struggling housing sector, which is a crucial driver of metal demand. Housing concerns in China were underscored by a construction PMI drop to a record low of 50.4, along with a 5.7% annual decline in house prices. In terms of supply, zinc ingot inventory levels in seven regions showed mixed results, with Shanghai inventories declining due to fewer warehouse arrivals and increased purchases by downstream industries taking advantage of lower prices. In contrast, inventories rose in Guangdong due to higher warehouse arrivals. The global zinc market deficit widened to 66,300 metric tons in August, up from 51,000 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). For the first eight months of 2024, the global market had a surplus of 127,000 tons, a significant reduction compared to the 418,000-ton surplus during the same period in 2023. Domestically, China's refined zinc production grew by over 2% month-on-month in September but declined by 8% year-on-year, as smelters ramped up production post-maintenance. Technically, the zinc market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 5.44% to 2,954 contracts as prices declined by 2.95 rupees. Zinc finds support at 273.4, with further downside to 270.9, while resistance is at 278.6, with a potential breakout to 281.3 signaling possible price recovery if demand outlooks improve.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 270.9-281.3.
* Zinc dropped as markets assessed the impact that fresh stimulus from China may have on metal demand.
* Zinc ingot inventory in seven regions was 120,000 mt, an increase of 1,100 mt compared to October 31.
* China’s official construction PMI falling to a record low of 50.4 and house prices sinking by 5.7% annually.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by -0.55% to settle at 237.15, influenced by market disappointment over China’s recent fiscal stimulus measures, which investors found insufficient to significantly boost its underperforming economy. While China introduced a support package aimed at alleviating debt pressures for local governments and hinted at additional stimulus, the measures did not meet expectations, leading to caution around future demand for metals. Concerns about potential tariffs on China under the incoming U.S. Trump administration added further pressure, as these could dampen global metals demand. On the supply front, China’s aluminium production in October 2024 rose by 1.69% year-on-year. However, some smelter restarts have been slower than expected due to delays in technical renovations, and full production recovery may take longer. Despite this, demand for downstream alloy products remains stable, supported by the peak season in September-October. China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reached 5.5 million tons in the first ten months of the year, a 17% increase from the same period last year, with October exports up 31% year-on-year. Additionally, China’s primary aluminium production in September was robust at 3.65 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, supported by profitable margins that reached an average of 2,379 yuan ($334.04) per ton. Technically, aluminium is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest falling by 3.07% to 3,004 contracts as prices dropped by 1.3 rupees. Aluminium currently has support at 235.7, with further support at 234.3, while resistance is expected at 238.6. A break above this resistance could push prices to test the 240.1 level, suggesting a limited short-term rebound potential.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 234.3-240.1.
* Aluminium dropped on disappointment over China's fiscal support
* The total alumina inventory at domestic ports amounted to 50,500 tonnes, an increase of 20,500 tonnes compared to the week.
* China’s aluminum production in October 2024 increased by 1.69% YoY.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices fell by -0.5% to settle at 55,680, influenced by weak demand in yarn markets and ongoing payment constraints. India’s cotton production for the 2024/25 season is projected to decrease by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to a reduction in planted area and crop damage from excessive rainfall. The USDA has also lowered its forecast for India’s cotton production to 30.72 million bales, with ending stocks reduced to 12.38 million bales, while raising global production estimates by over 200,000 bales, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting decreases in the U.S. and Spain. This has affected the export landscape; India's cotton exports are expected to fall to 1.8 million bales from last year’s 2.85 million, while imports may rise to 2.5 million bales, supporting global prices. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, mill use, and exports, with production reduced by over 300,000 bales to 14.2 million due to Hurricane Helene. Global trade forecasts have also been revised down by over 500,000 bales, mainly from reduced Chinese imports, while global ending stocks are slightly down to 76.3 million bales. In Rajkot’s spot market, prices dropped by -0.19% to 26,299.2 rupees. Technically, Cottoncandy is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 1.17% to 169 contracts as prices fell by 280 rupees. Key support is now at 55,550, with the next level at 55,420, while resistance is observed at 55,860. A break above this resistance could see prices testing 56,040, although short-term market conditions remain challenging due to weak demand and production concerns.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55420-56040.
* Cotton settled down as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production estimated to drop to 7-year low in 2024-25
* USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26299.2 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices dropped by 1.21% to 13,250 amid subdued demand and increased arrivals. Market pressure continues as turmeric acreage is estimated to be 30-35% higher for the upcoming season, suggesting increased production. However, the downside remains limited due to crop damage reports following heavy rains, with losses potentially higher than initially anticipated. Recent weather has been favorable for crop growth, with 20 mm of rain recorded in Vidarbha and 18 mm in Telangana, benefiting turmeric fields. Despite higher sowing, concerns over weather-related disruptions could support prices as harvesting approaches in five months. In addition to domestic factors, international influences are at play. Indonesia’s dry weather has accelerated its harvest, adding to global supply pressure. Turmeric sowing has doubled along the Erode line and increased by 30-35% in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh compared to last year. Last year’s low sowing and unfavorable weather resulted in estimated production of 45-50 lakh bags. This year, turmeric production could reach 70-75 lakh bags, although outstanding stock will be near zero, potentially limiting availability against consumption in 2025. In 2023, production stood at 80-85 lakh bags, with an additional 25-30 lakh bags in stock. Turmeric exports dropped by 6.46% between April and August 2024, reaching 77,584.70 tonnes compared to 82,939.31 tonnes during the same period in 2023. Imports surged by 340.21%, reflecting increased domestic demand. Technically, turmeric is under long liquidation with open interest down by 0.23% to 11,040 contracts. Support is found at 13,096, with potential further downside to 12,944. Resistance lies at 13,420, and a breakout above could push prices towards 13,592, indicating potential price recovery if demand strengthens against limited availability.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12944-13592.
* Turmeric prices dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* The expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year.
* Recent weather conditions, which include dry weather followed by light rains, are benefiting crop growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13685.35 Rupees gained by 0.71 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices fell by -1.13% to settle at 24,935, driven by increased arrivals in the market, with approximately 15,000 bags reaching Unjha daily. Farmers reportedly still hold about 35% of this season’s cumin stock, with carryover stock estimated at 20 lakh bags. Despite the recent price decline, there is optimism in the market for post-Diwali export growth, with demand expected to rise in November and December. Indian cumin, currently the cheapest globally at $3,050 per tonne, has seen increased interest, especially from countries like China, as other major producers like Syria, Iran, and Turkey face production challenges. This competitive pricing positions India as a key supplier, likely supporting prices in the coming months. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also contributed positively to India’s cumin exports, particularly from Gujarat. Data from the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) reveals a significant year-on-year export increase of 128% from July to September 2024, totaling 52,022 metric tonnes, compared to 22,830 metric tonnes last year. Additionally, during April-August 2024, exports grew by 61.44% to 103,614.46 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023, driven by robust demand from Europe and other regions ahead of festive seasons. Technically, jeera is experiencing fresh selling pressure, as reflected by a 6.6% increase in open interest to 2,034 contracts, with prices down by 285 rupees. Key support is now at 24,700, with further support at 24,460. Resistance is expected at 25,240, and a break above this could push prices to test 25,540, though market sentiment remains cautious amid ample stock and near-term supply pressure.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24460-25540.
* Jeera prices dropped as arrival has increased.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25282.85 Rupees dropped by -0.34 percent.

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