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Gold:

Gold demonstrated a 0.46% increase, closing at 62735, primarily influenced by concerns about the weakening U.S. labor market. In January 2024, the private sector added 107,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 148,000, according to ADP's report. The disappointing job gains, coupled with a continued easing in wage pressures, could contribute to maintaining inflation at manageable levels. This economic backdrop has supported gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The World Gold Council (WGC) anticipates subdued gold demand in India during the first quarter of 2024, driven by lower jewelry sales. However, annual demand is expected to rise as consumers adjust to higher prices. The report suggests a potential breakout from the historical gold demand range of 700 to 800 metric tons in India, projecting a rise to between 800 and 900 tons in 2024. In 2023, Indian gold demand fell by 3% to 747.5 tons, the lowest since 2020, due to record-high prices limiting jewelry demand. Globally, excluding over-the-counter (OTC) trading, gold demand fell 5% to 4,448.4 metric tons in 2023. Despite the dip, it remained robust compared to the 10-year average, fueled by geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Technically, the gold market indicates fresh buying, with a 5.12% increase in open interest, settling at 15369. Gold currently finds support at 62480, and a breach below may test 62225 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 62925, and a move above could lead to a test of 63115.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 62225-63115.

* Gold gains as the U.S. labour market appears to be losing momentum

* India's gold demand to rise in 2024 despite subdued March quarter – WGC

* Indian gold demand fell 3% in 2023 from the prior year to 747.5 tons, the lowest since 2020

Silver:

Silver closed with a marginal decline of -0.13%, settling at 72247, as investors tempered expectations of early interest rate cuts, awaiting the U.S. central bank's guidance on policy rates. The global silver deficit is anticipated to ease by 9% to 176 million troy ounces in 2024, with a 4% recovery in mine output offsetting rising demand. Despite facing a fourth year of structural market deficit, silver, used in various industries including jewelry, electronics, electric vehicles, and solar panels, is expected to see a 1% increase in global demand to 1.2 billion ounces, driven by stronger industrial consumption. U.S. consumer confidence reached a two-year high in January at 114.8, driven by slowing inflation and expectations of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. However, U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in December, suggesting a robust labor market that may delay interest rate cuts in the first quarter. Technically, the silver market is undergoing long liquidation with a -0.3% drop in open interest, settling at 23112. Silver finds support at 72035, and a breach below may test 71820 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 72575, with a move above potentially leading to a test of 72900. Traders should closely monitor these levels for potential market movements in the upcoming sessions.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 71820-72900.

* Silver steadied as investors reduced their expectations of early interest rate cuts this year

* The global silver deficit is expected to ease by 9% to 176 million troy ounces in 2024

* U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in January

Crude oil:

Crude oil faced a decline of -2.55%, closing at 6313, largely influenced by sluggish economic activity in China, a key importer of crude. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude stocks by 1.2 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels for the week ended January 26, contrary to market expectations. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels to 253 million barrels, while distillate inventories, encompassing diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.5 million barrels to 133.3 million barrels, against the anticipated 0.4 million-barrel drop. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak asserted that current oil prices accurately reflect the market situation, with global oil demand expected to increase by around 2 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted a 1.24 million barrels per day rise in global consumption for 2024, marking its third consecutive upward revision. However, this projection falls below OPEC's more optimistic estimate of 2.25 million barrels per day. Novak also mentioned the absence of talks with Ukraine or the European Union regarding the extension of the Russian gas transit deal, set to expire at the end of 2024. From a technical standpoint, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -1.19% drop in open interest, settling at 8600. Crude oil currently finds support at 6248, and a breach below may test 6183 levels. Resistance is anticipated at 6420, with a move above potentially leading to a test of 6527.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6183-6527.

* Crude oil dropped pressured by lacklustre economic activity in China.

* U.S. crude stocks and gasoline inventories rose while distillate inventories fell in last week

* Russia's Novak says current oil prices are adequate

Natural gas:

Natural gas witnessed a significant uptick of 1.9%, settling at 177.2, driven by forecasts hinting at a potentially mild February turning cooler later in the month. Both American and European weather models indicated a milder outlook for the Feb. 10-14 timeframe, leading to delayed cooler temperatures over the eastern United States, as reported by NatGasWeather. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a robust 2.5% increase in global natural gas demand, equivalent to 100 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2024 compared to 2023. This substantial growth is expected to bring about heightened price volatility. In 2023, the global energy watchdog recorded a more modest demand increase of 0.5%. The IEA anticipates notable growth in China's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, mirroring the previous year's growth rate of over 10%. Additionally, India is projected to increase LNG imports by 7%, driven by demand from the power and fertilizer sectors. LSEG, a financial company, reported a decline in gas output in the Lower 48 states, averaging 103.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in January, down from the record high of 108.0 bcfd in December. However, on a daily basis, gas output showed a substantial increase, reaching a preliminary three-week high of 107.1 bcfd on Monday. Technically, the natural gas market is undergoing short covering with a -3.37% drop in open interest, settling at 63031. Natural gas finds support at 172.1, and a breach below may test 166.9 levels. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 181.4, and a move above could lead to a test of 185.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 166.9-185.5.

* Natural gas gains due to forecasts of a cooler February

* Global natural gas demand is set to rise by 2.5% in 2024 versus 2023

* IEA expects China’s liquefied natural gas imports to grow by more than 10% from 2023 levels

Copper:

Copper experienced a modest decline of -0.2%, settling at 733.25, driven by manufacturing contraction in China. Despite stocks in LME-registered warehouses decreasing by 24% since October to 146,475 tons, the cash discount over three-month copper contracts suggests no immediate concerns about supply shortages in the LME market. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) recommended copper smelters reduce production and delay new projects due to tightening raw material supplies, aggravated by unexpectedly tight copper concentrate availability following the closure of a major mine in Panama. China's refined copper output in 2023 reached a record high of 12.99 million metric tons, a 13.5% increase from 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. However, facing challenges in copper concentrate supply, top Chinese smelters proposed production cuts, although no specific plan has been agreed upon. Technically, the copper market is witnessing long liquidation, with a -2.51% drop in open interest, settling at 4574. Copper currently finds support at 731.2, and a breach below may test 729 levels. Resistance is anticipated at 736.5, with a move above potentially leading to a test of 739.6. Traders should closely monitor these levels alongside broader economic indicators to gauge the overall health of the copper market and anticipate potential supply challenges.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 729-739.6.

* Copper dropped as data showed contraction in manufacturing activity in China.

* Chinese copper smelters propose output cuts on concentrate tightness

* CNIA said it had advised copper smelters to cut production and postpone new projects amid tightening raw material supplies

Zinc:

Zinc faced a decline of -1.08%, settling at 225.2, as prices encountered pressure from data indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity in China. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight increase to 49.2 in January 2024, but this marks the fourth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity, influenced by challenges such as property weakness, deflationary risks, and global headwinds. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China, however, rose to 50.7 in January, indicating the 13th straight month of expansion in services activity and the strongest pace since September. Until there is a significant pickup in zinc demand and market attention shifts from projected surpluses of the metal, sustained price rallies triggered by production cuts are unlikely. Nyrstar's decision to suspend its Budel smelting operations in the Netherlands due to high energy costs briefly lifted zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to $2,615 per metric ton, the highest in over a week. Global zinc supplies for this year are estimated around 14 million tons. Technically, the zinc market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -9.96% drop in open interest, settling at 2910. Zinc finds support at 224, and a breach below may test 222.8 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 227.1, and a move above could lead to a test of 229. Traders should closely monitor these levels for potential market movements in the coming sessions.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.8-229.

* Zinc dropped as China’s manufacturing activity in China contracted.

* Global zinc supplies estimated at around 14 million tons

* Lack of concern about zinc supplies can be seen in the discount for cash over three-month zinc contracts.

Aluminium:

Aluminium experienced a marginal decline of -0.1%, closing at 204.9, driven by profit booking following a surge in prices fueled by the implementation of real estate "white list" and relaxation of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, Suzhou, and Shanghai, which significantly boosted market sentiment. China's unwrought aluminium imports more than doubled year-on-year in 2023, reaching the second-highest annual total since the start of the century. Primary metal imports surged to 1.54 million metric tons from 668,000 tons in 2022, just falling short of the record tally in 2021 at 1.58 million tons. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China slightly improved to 49.2 in January 2024, matching market estimates but marking the fourth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity. This contraction is attributed to a faltering recovery in the face of property weakness, deflationary risks, and mounting global headwinds. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI in China edged up to 50.7 in January, the 13th straight month of expansion in services activity. Japan's imports of primary aluminium fell by 26% to 1.03 million metric tons in 2023 due to slow demand in construction and manufacturing industries, marking the lowest figure since at least 1986. Technically, the aluminium market is witnessing fresh selling, with a 5.66% increase in open interest, settling at 3865. Aluminium is currently finding support at 204.2, and a breach below may test 203.3 levels. Resistance is anticipated at 206, and a move above could lead to a test of 206.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.3-206.9.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices rose after real estate "white list" and purchasing restrictions ease

* China's imports of unwrought aluminium more than doubled year-on-year in 2023

* China factory activity shrinks for 4th month: NBS

Cotton candy:

Cotton prices, represented by Cottoncandy, experienced a decline of -0.63%, settling at 57020. The drop was influenced by a reduction in world consumption forecasts for the 2023/24 season, particularly in key cotton-producing countries like India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey. Additionally, higher beginning stocks and production, coupled with lower consumption, contributed to a 2.0 million bales increase in world ending stocks for 2023/24. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintained its estimate for domestic cotton consumption in the 2023-24 season at 311 lakh bales, with pressing estimates at 294.10 lakh bales. The total cotton supply till the end of the 2023-24 season is projected at 345 lakh bales. Meanwhile, Brazil achieved a historic high in cotton production for the 2022-23 season due to expanded cultivation and productivity. However, sluggish global demand, influenced by economic conditions, led to increased inventories and reduced cotton prices worldwide. Reports from India indicate a decline in pink bollworm infestation in cotton crops, dropping from 30.62% during 2017-18 to 10.80% in 2022-23. In the global context, Brazilian cotton shipments increased in November 2023, marking a 12% rise compared to October but a 5.5% decrease compared to November 2022. Technically, the cotton market is undergoing long liquidation, with a -0.35% drop in open interest, settling at 282. Cottoncandy finds support at 56860, and a breach below may test 56690 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 57280, and a move above could lead to a test of 57530. Traders should monitor these levels for potential market movements in the coming sessions.

Trading Ideas;

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56690-57530.

* Cotton dropped as world consumption is forecast 1.3 million bales lower than last month

* World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 2.0 million bales higher this month driven by higher beginning stocks.

* World production is 260,000 bales higher with China’s crop up 500,000 bales and Argentina’s production higher as well

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26506.45 Rupees dropped by -0.34 percent.

Turmeric:

Turmeric witnessed a significant decline of -4.95%, settling at 14096, driven by slower buying activities in anticipation of stock releases ahead of the commencement of new crops. Pressure mounted due to improved crop conditions attributed to favorable weather. However, the downside is expected to be limited as weaker production prospects and tighter stocks in the market counterbalance the situation. The announcement of PM Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana has sparked concerns among farmers in Maharashtra regarding the headquarters location. Crop conditions are currently satisfactory, with harvest expected between January and March. Despite slower buying activities, the current levels and decreasing supplies are anticipated to sustain price stability. Export opportunities have improved, leading to a 25% increase in turmeric exports. Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding, particularly in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, due to shifting farmer priorities, further contribute to the market dynamics. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2023 dropped by 1.07%, with November 2023 witnessing a 15.34% decline compared to October and a 30.78% drop compared to November 2022. Technically, the market is undergoing fresh selling, with a 3.78% increase in open interest, settling at 12645. Turmeric currently finds support at 13716, and a breach below may test 13334 levels. Resistance is likely at 14760, with a move above potentially leading to a test of 15422.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13334-15422.

* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower

* Pressure also seen amid expectation of release of stocks ahead of commencement of new crops.

* Prices also dropped amid Improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13597.35 Rupees dropped by -1.51 percent.

Jeera:

Jeera prices rebounded with a significant gain of 1.36%, settling at 27110, driven by short covering after a previous drop attributed to higher production prospects in Gujarat and Rajasthan. The current rabi season witnessed a four-year high in jeera acreage, particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan, major producing states. Farmers expanded cultivation due to record prices in the last marketing season, showcasing a strong correlation between market prices and acreage. In Gujarat, jeera cultivation surged by 160% to cover 5.60 lakh hectares, surpassing the normal acreage of 3.5 lakh hectares. Rajasthan experienced a 25% increase, reaching 6.90 lakh hectares compared to the previous year. However, challenges such as lower water availability, fewer cold days, and concerns about fusarium wilt attacks on crops pose potential risks. Global demand for Indian jeera declined as buyers preferred other origins like Syria and Turkey due to higher prices in India. Export challenges may persist due to lower water availability and climate-related issues. While India anticipates a potentially bumper crop, other major jeera-producing countries expect higher yields, impacting the global market. Jeera exports from April to November 2023 dropped by 33.10% at 84,467.16 tonnes, with a rise of 30.04% in November compared to October. Technically, the jeera market is under fresh buying with a 0.15% increase in open interest, settling at 2010. Jeera finds support at 26740, and a breach below may test 26380 levels. On the upside, resistance is likely at 27330, and a move above could lead to a test of 27560.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 26380-27560.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped due to higher production prospects

* In Gujarat, Cumin sowing witnessed very strong growth by nearly 103% with 530,030.00 hectares against sown area of 2022

* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 32228.95 Rupees gained by 0.53 percent.

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