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GOLD

Gold experienced a decline of -0.56% settling at 60009, impacted by a stronger dollar and the recovery in U.S. Treasury yields, which hampered demand for bullion. The dollar's sustained rebound and elevated Treasury yields prompted investor reactions to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials concerning future rate paths. Attention is directed towards Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech for more insights. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller highlighted the robust Q3 U.S. GDP growth, terming it a significant factor that warrants close attention when planning future policies. However, Powell refrained from discussing interest rates or the economy during his recent appearance at a conference. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged the progress made by the U.S. central bank in combatting inflation, directing focus on how long to maintain current rates if this progress continues. Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed suggested the necessity for further measures to achieve the 2% inflation goal, considering the recent string of robust economic data. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated the likelihood of raising short-term rates. Technically, the market saw long liquidation, marked by a -2.55% drop in open interest, settling at 12465, while prices experienced a decline of -338 rupees. Support for Gold stands at 59820, potentially testing 59635, with resistance anticipated at 60320, a breakthrough above which could drive prices towards 60635.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 59635-60635.
* Gold fell with a firmer dollar and a recovery in U.S. Treasury yields denting demand
* Fed’s Waller said that Q3 U.S. GDP growth was a "blowout" performance that warrants a very close eye when thinking about policy going forward.
* Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari said the Fed might still have some work to do to control inflation.
 

SILVER

Silver closed up by 0.59%, settling at 71050, as traders hold conflicting views on whether US interest rates have reached their peak, eagerly anticipating further insights from policymakers on the interest rate outlook. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested that more measures might be necessary to control inflation. Initial optimism emerged after weak US jobs figures, hinting that the Federal Reserve might have concluded its tightening cycle, fostering demand for non-yielding instruments. Market attention turns towards upcoming appearances by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for guidance on rate prospects. Precious metals faced a decline due to reduced tensions in the Middle East and mixed China data. While China's year-on-year imports grew in October, its total exports contracted more than expected, signaling weakened global demand. Focus is also on the U.S. trade deficit report for September, along with speeches by various Fed officials. Investors await more clarity on rate outlook from several key policymakers, including Powell, BoE, and ECB officials scheduled to speak this week. Powell's speech on Wednesday holds particular significance in offering additional insights on the US rate outlook. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, marked by an -8.84% drop in open interest to settle at 20925, while prices surged by 416 rupees. Support for Silver lies at 70335, potentially testing 69615, while resistance is anticipated at 71585, with a potential breakthrough leading prices to test 72115.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 69615-72115.
* Silver recovered as traders remain divided on whether US interest rates already peaked.
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the US central bank probably still had some work to do to bring inflation under control.
* U.S. reports on the U.S trade deficit in the month of September may attract attention later today along with remarks by several Fed officials.
 

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil faced a significant setback, dropping 3.58% to 62.74 per barrel, driven by multiple concerns. The demand outlook was worrisome due to weaker-than-expected Chinese exports in October, coupled with a US government report predicting a 20-year low in American gasoline demand per capita next year. This signaled a potential dip in global demand. On the supply side, US crude inventories surged by almost 12 million barrels, the largest increase since early 2023, while Russian shipments reached a four-month high. However, Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to voluntary oil supply cuts until year-end, aiming to stabilize the market. Barclays adjusted its 2024 Brent crude price forecast downward by $4 to $93 per barrel. This adjustment was attributed to resilient US oil supply and higher output from Venezuela, following the relaxation of sanctions. The US Energy Information Administration anticipated a slight decrease in US crude output for this year, but demand was projected to decline. Technically, the market exhibited signs of fresh selling with increased open interest by 12.42%, settling at 12,768. Crude oil found support at 6,197 and could potentially test 6,121 levels, while resistance was expected at 6,415, with the possibility of prices testing 6,557.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6121-6557.
* Crudeoil dropped on demand concerns, signs of higher supply and easing Middle East tensions.
* Weaker-than-expected Chinese exports in October added to concerns about global demand.
* API shows large build in U.S. crude stockpiles
 

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas experienced a decline of 2.02% to 257.2 due to high output levels and predictions of prolonged mild weather, which is suppressing heating demand. This climate is allowing utilities to continue injecting gas into storage, contributing to a surplus of approximately 6% more gas than usual for this time of year. Record-breaking gas production in November, following a peak in October, is further contributing to the surplus. Moreover, the expectation of warmer weather until late November is curbing heating demand, while gas flows to US LNG export facilities, though increasing, remain below peak levels seen in April. Declining exports to Mexico are expected to increase with New Fortress Energy's LNG export operations. Financial firm LSEG reported a rise in average gas output in the Lower 48 US states, from a record 104.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October to 106.6 bcfd in November. However, daily output hit an all-time high of 107.6 bcfd, with forecasts expecting a drop in gas demand from 109.9 bcfd to 101.3 bcfd due to milder weather before a surge to 108.9 bcfd as colder weather sets in. Technically, the market witnessed increased open interest by 4.4% settling at 35,601. Natural gas found support at 253.6, possibly testing 250 levels, with resistance at 263.3 and potential testing of 269.4 if prices move above.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 250-269.4.
* Natural gas dropped on record output and forecasts for mild weather to continue through late November
* Natural gas production has been on the rise in November, following a record high in October.
* Additionally, there is currently about 6% more gas in storage than is typical for this time of year.

 

COPPER

Copper experienced a slight dip by -0.83% settling at 704 due to a stronger U.S. dollar and uncertain demand. Despite supply disruptions, a 23.7% surge in China's copper imports was observed in October. This rise was influenced by low stocks and consistent demand in various sectors. However, the market saw a decrease in copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, albeit a subsequent 11.2% increase, offering a slight cushion post a significant drop. The demand surge in September and October, typical for industrial activities, was expected, with increased consumer spending during the Golden Week holiday in China. On the other hand, the market remains vigilant about China's demand outlook amid PMI data showing unexpected contractions in the manufacturing sector. Beijing's plans to inject CNY 1 trillion in additional debt to stimulate manufacturing and infrastructure construction further impacted market sentiments. Technically, the market witnessed a rise in open interest by 6.09% alongside a 5.9 rupee decrease in prices, indicating a renewed selling trend. Support levels are identified at 700.7, with a potential test down to 697.3. Conversely, resistance is anticipated at 710.2, with a likelihood of prices testing 716.3 if breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 697.3-716.3.
* Copper dropped amid a stronger U.S. dollar and hazy demand outlook for the metal
* China's October copper imports jump amid low stocks, solid demand
* Copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 11.2% to 40,516 tonnes
 

ZINC

Zinc closed 0.75% higher at 228.45 due to supply concerns from incidents like the fire at Russia's Ozernoye mine and recent suspensions in U.S. mines, reducing available stock. The fire at the Russian mine and the closure of two U.S. zinc mines by Nyrstar due to low prices and inflation's impact added pressure. Chinese PMI figures revealed a struggling economy with manufacturing at 49.5 in October and a drop in Non-Manufacturing PMI. Reports from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group indicated a shift in the refined zinc market, from an anticipated deficit to a surplus of 248,000 metric tons in 2023, attributing this change to lower-than-expected demand. The global demand for refined zinc was revised down to 13.59 million tons due to tight monetary conditions. China's refined zinc output in September 2023 increased month-on-month by 3.31% but fell short of expectations for annual growth, highlighting a gap in production. Technically, the market saw a substantial 20.32% rise in open interest and a 1.7 rupee price increase. Support is identified at 226.7, potentially testing 225, while resistance is expected at 230.1 with a possible rise to 231.8 if breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 225-231.8.
* Zinc rose on concerns about supply after reports of a fire at a Russian mine project
* Adding to supply concerns, LME zinc inventories have more than halved since early September.
* Nyrstar said it planned to temporarily close two U.S. zinc mines at the end of November

 

ALUMINIUM

Aluminium closed with a slight decline of -0.22% at 207.95 as markets closely monitored China's demand outlook. Beijing's plan to inject CNY 1 trillion in extra debt to boost manufacturing and infrastructure raised questions as PMI data revealed unexpected contractions in China's manufacturing sector. The impact of these investments on output remains a concern. Chinese officials made statements about opening their economy and increasing commodity and services imports, aiming for nearly $17 trillion in the next five months. On the other hand, the weakening US dollar followed a monthly payrolls report, fueling expectations of a December interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Monitoring industrial metals imports in China and consumer prices will be crucial to assess the impact of Chinese stimulus on the economy. In the US, the trade deficit widened to $61.5 billion in September 2023, surpassing forecasts and marking the third lowest deficit since 2021. In Germany, the Construction PMI fell to 38.3 in October, signaling a deterioration in the country's construction sector health. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation with a -0.54% drop in open interest and a -0.45 rupee price decrease. Support levels are seen at 207.5 with a potential test of 207, while resistance is expected at 208.7, possibly leading to prices testing 209.4 if surpassed.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207-209.4.
* Aluminium dropped as markets continued to gauge the demand outlook from China.
* Beijing is set to emit CNY 1 trillion in extra debt to spur manufacturing activity and infrastructure construction.
* PMI data unexpectedly showed contractions in China’s manufacturing sector

 

COTTONCANDY

Cottoncandy experienced a -1.14% decrease, settling at 57300, largely due to concerns about demand from China, the top consumer, as the harvest season progressed. India's anticipated 7.5% decline in cotton production for 2023/24, primarily influenced by reduced planted area and weather impacts from El Nino, has led to estimates of increased imports. The USDA's October WASDE report highlighted reduced U.S. cotton production to 12.8 million bales in 2023/24, citing lower yields in Texas. Brazil is predicted to exceed U.S. cotton production for the first time, potentially overtaking U.S. cotton exports, marking a significant shift in the cotton market dynamics. Australian cotton exports to China surged in August, showcasing a significant volume not seen since July 2014, signaling improved trade relations between the countries. The Cotton Association of India adjusted its 2022-23 crop production estimate to 31.8 million bales, differing from the government's estimates and prior industry projections. Additionally, India foresees production between 330-340 lakh bales in the 2023-2024 cotton season. In the market, there was fresh selling observed, with a 3.09% rise in open interest and a price drop of -660 rupees. Support levels are identified at 57080, possibly testing 56850, while resistance is expected at 57580, potentially leading to prices testing 57850 if surpassed.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56850-57850.
* Cotton dropped pressured by concerns about demand from China as the harvest season for the natural fiber progressed.
* Imports could rise to 2.2 million bales in the marketing year that started on Oct. 1, up from the last year's 1.25 million bales
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 27015.7 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.
 

TURMERIC

Turmeric faced a decline of -1.71%, settling at 13478, primarily due to improved crop conditions brought about by favorable weather. However, the downside is limited as the crop remains vulnerable to yield losses due to unfavorable weather conditions, and the dry October forecasted by the IMD might impact crop growth. The current levels of buying activity and decreasing supplies are expected to sustain price stability. Additionally, there is support from improved export opportunities, with a 25% increase in exports due to rising demand in developed and emerging nations. Nonetheless, there are expectations for a 20-25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, especially in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, as farmers shift their priorities. Turmeric exports during Apr-Aug 2023 increased by 11.51% compared to the same period in 2022. However, August 2023 saw a drop of 18.20% in exports from July, and a 6.67% drop from August 2022. In the technical aspect, the market experienced fresh selling with a 0.77% rise in open interest and a -234 rupee price drop. Support levels are at 13346, possibly testing 13216, while resistance is expected at 13666, potentially leading to prices testing 13856 if breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13216-13856.
* Turmeric dropped amid improved crop condition due to favorable weather condition.
* However, downside seen limited due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's unfavourable weather.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13540.4 Rupees dropped by -0.83 percent.
 

JEERA

Jeera observed a significant drop of -5.44%, settling at 43125, attributed to favorable weather conditions conducive for sowing activities. The predictions for upcoming sowing indicate normalcy, driven by adequate soil moisture and favorable weather, prompting stockists to engage in buying after the recent price decline. Support for jeera prices is noted due to the limited availability of quality crops, although global demand for Indian jeera decreased as buyers sought alternative sources in Syria and Turkey owing to higher prices in India. This shift resulted in reduced export activity and subdued overseas demand despite India maintaining competitive prices. The uncertainty surrounding Chinese purchases of Indian cumin in October-November before new arrivals adds complexity to market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, the expected cumin demand exceeds the likely supply, creating an imbalance. In terms of technical analysis, the market encountered fresh selling with a 5.08% rise in open interest and a price drop of -2480 rupees. Support levels rest at 41770, potentially testing 40400, while resistance is anticipated at 45610, with the potential for prices to test 48080 if breached.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 40400-48080.
* Jeera dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost sowing.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 45923.65 Rupees dropped by -1.02 percent.

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