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Gold

Gold settled 1.89% higher at Rs.162,438, supported by a weaker dollar as investors questioned whether the US Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme could undermine market confidence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the government may further increase Treasury repurchases after announcing plans to double longer-dated debt buybacks to contain bond yields. Two Federal Reserve officials also expressed caution over the potential implications of Treasury debt-management changes for monetary policy. Markets are currently pricing a 67% probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September, while Morgan Stanley expects gold to exceed $5,000/oz in 2027, potentially earlier, although US inflation data could continue to drive volatility. Physical demand remained subdued in India, where dealers offered discounts of up to $65/oz as elevated prices discouraged retail buying. India’s net gold imports fell 23% YoY to 98.1 tonnes in Q2 2026, while overall demand declined 6% to 131.4 tonnes. The World Gold Council also highlighted rising unofficial gold inflows following India’s increase in import tariffs to 15%, which has widened grey-market margins. Globally, Q2 gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, supported by a sharp recovery in central-bank purchases to 289 tonnes, despite 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. Russia’s gold reserves declined slightly to 73.2 million ounces, while London vault holdings increased 0.77% MoM to 9,464 tonnes. Technically, gold remains under fresh buying interest as open interest increased 3.9% to 11,006 while prices gained Rs.3,013. The market is receiving support at Rs.160,470, with a break below potentially opening the way toward Rs.158,495. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.163,550, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs.164,655. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive while prices hold above key support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 158495-164655.

* Gold gains as dollar slipped as investors questioned whether the U.S. Treasury's ‌efforts to calm the bond markets.

* Gold remained supported by robust investment demand and continued central bank purchases, particularly from China.

* Bessent says he may further increase US government's repurchases of Treasuries

Silver

Silver settled 1.38% higher at Rs.246,597, supported by a weaker dollar and the US Treasury’s surprise liquidity support measures, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that government Treasury buybacks could be increased further. US retail sales declined 0.6% MoM in July 2026, sharply missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and reversing June’s 0.2% rise, while initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000, exceeding market expectations of 202,000. The softer US economic data reinforced expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, providing additional support to precious metals. Citi maintained a bullish outlook for silver, targeting $75/oz over the next three months and $90/oz over six to 12 months, citing stronger investor demand and a potentially favourable monetary-policy environment. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% YoY to 219,000 tonnes in June, highlighting continued activity in the silver supply chain. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% MoM to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June, valued at $53.1 billion. The global silver market is expected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the 2026 deficit projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, mainly due to weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%. Industrial silver fabrication is projected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while total supply is forecast to decline 2%. Despite improved liquidity after the previous squeeze, 762 million ounces have reportedly been drawn from stocks since 2021, maintaining longer-term supply concerns. Technically, silver is under short covering as open interest declined 6.2% to 9,373 while prices gained Rs.3,354. The market is finding support at Rs.244,525, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs.242,450. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.248,400, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.250,200. Overall, the near-term outlook remains positive while prices sustain above key support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 242450-250200.

* Silver rose driven by a feeble dollar and the U.S. Treasury's surprise mid-week liquidity support announcement.

* Silver could climb as high as $90 an ounce over the next six to 12 months – CITI

* Feds minutes confirmed that some policymakers argued in favor of raising interest rates this year to prevent sharper inflationary pressure later on.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.66% higher at Rs.8,359, supported by growing concerns over disruptions to Middle East oil supplies after the United States threatened to impose its toughest-ever sanctions on Iran, raising fears of prolonged restrictions on regional crude flows. Iran warned that any new US threats could trigger a devastating response, while the possibility of further sanctions increased uncertainty around Iranian exports. Oil prices also remained supported by supply curtailments from major producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Iranian crude offers to Chinese buyers declined sharply this week as the US blockade disrupted shipments, pushing Iranian crude prices higher. Activity through the Strait of Hormuz also weakened, with only seven commodity ships passing through, around half the previous day’s level, highlighting continued transportation risks. Saudi crude exports increased to 3.993 million barrels per day in June from a record-low 3.434 million bpd in May, indicating some recovery in physical supply. In the United States, crude inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels for the week ended August 14, while stocks at Cushing declined by 1.3 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 216,000 bpd and refinery utilization rose by one percentage point. Gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels to 209.4 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 1.5 million barrels to 105.6 million barrels. Net US crude imports fell by 1.75 million bpd. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 bpd, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, although it raised its 2027 demand growth projection. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh buying as open interest increased 7.63% to 13,680 while prices gained Rs.55. Support is placed at Rs.8,260, and a break below could drag prices toward Rs.8,160. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.8,423, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.8,486. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive as geopolitical supply risks outweigh concerns over softer demand growth.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8160-8486.

* Crude oil gains after US threatened to impose the toughest sanctions with no end in sight for disruptions to Middle East oil flows.

* Iran vows 'devastating' response as US threatens toughest ever economic hit

* Oil supply from major Middle East producers remains curtailed

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.42% higher at Rs.264.8, supported by expectations of persistent summer heat and a weaker-than-normal storage injection, although abundant production continues to limit the upside. US utilities added 16 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended August 14, below market expectations of 19 bcf, the 19 bcf injection recorded a year earlier and the five-year average of 29 bcf. Total inventories rose to 3.169 trillion cubic feet, remaining 0.9% below the corresponding period last year but around 6.2% above the five-year average, indicating that overall supply remains comfortable. The smaller injection suggests stronger seasonal demand, with forecasts for warmer-than-normal temperatures through September 3 expected to increase gas consumption from power generators and support prices. However, record production remains a key limiting factor, while average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities stood at 17.2 bcfd in August, slightly below June’s record 17.4 bcfd. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected to increase from 91.9 bcfd in 2025 to 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. US LNG exports are also forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the August forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, natural gas is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 28.79% to 22,193 while prices gained Rs.3.7. Support is placed at Rs.262.2, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs.259.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.267.6, while a sustained move above this level could lead to a test of Rs.270.5. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautiously positive, supported by warmer weather and tighter weekly injections, while high inventories and strong production may restrict the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 259.7-270.5.

* Natural gas prices rose as traders balanced expectations for persistent summer heat against abundant supply.

* The latest EIA report showed US utilities added only 16 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week.

* Strong output has therefore limited the impact of elevated summer demand on storage levels.

Copper

Copper settled 1% higher at Rs.1,385.35, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of additional Chinese fiscal measures to strengthen economic growth. Market sentiment also improved as concerns over low inventories outside the United States supported prices, although large inflows into LME-registered warehouses eased immediate supply tightness. The LME cash copper premium over the benchmark declined sharply to $77 per tonne from $436 earlier in the week as more metal became available for prompt delivery, while the Yangshan premium increased 7% to $93 per tonne, indicating improved Chinese import appetite. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories jumped 28% during the week. UBS expects the global copper deficit to widen to 379,000 tonnes in 2027 from 219,000 tonnes in 2026 and maintains a constructive outlook, with a price target of $15,500 per tonne. US importers brought in more than 200,000 tonnes of refined copper in July, the highest monthly volume in at least 12 years, pushing total US inventories above 1 million tonnes amid expectations of potential import tariffs. In contrast, LME warehouse stocks have declined for 42 consecutive sessions to 204,975 tonnes, with nearly half already earmarked for withdrawal. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-tonne deficit in June compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the January-June period remained in a 131,000-tonne surplus. China’s unwrought copper and product imports fell 11.5% YoY to 425,000 tonnes in July, while refined copper production increased 1.3% to 1.29 million tonnes. Technically, copper is under short covering as open interest declined 9.25% to 7,352 while prices gained Rs.13.65. Support is placed at Rs.1,377.5, and a break below could lead to Rs.1,369.5. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,391.5, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs.1,397.5. Overall, the near-term outlook remains positive, though rising Chinese inventories and strong US stockpiling may limit gains.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1369.5-1397.5.

* Copper prices rose supported by a weaker dollar and China pledging fiscal policy measures to strengthen economic growth.

* The premium of the LME cash copper contract over the benchmark slid to $77 a ton from Monday's $436.

* UBS sees copper market deficit to widen to 379,000 metric tons in 2027, from 219,000 metric tons in 2026

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.37% higher at Rs.407.65, supported by speculative buying as tightening availability outside China raised concerns about potential shortages, despite rising Chinese inventories. LME zinc stocks have declined 25% over the past two months to 93,125 tonnes, while Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked stocks have more than doubled this year to 155,954 tonnes. The tightness in refined metal outside China has pushed the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract to $132 per tonne, the highest since December, highlighting strong near-term supply constraints. Heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China have raised concerns over mining and smelting disruptions, with production adjustments at a southwest mine expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes and maintenance at a central China smelter potentially cutting refined output by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Global supply is also under pressure, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc output declined 21% YoY to 365,600 tonnes in H1 2026, while Boliden’s concentrate production fell 16.8% QoQ to 74,200 tonnes. However, nearly 10,000 tonnes of deliveries into LME warehouses and elevated prices weakening Chinese demand could limit further gains. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% YoY, while the global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April. The January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes, compared with 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. LME positioning remained bullish, with long positions rising 7% to a record 110,302 lots, while shorts increased 11% to 54,886 lots. Technically, zinc is under short covering as open interest declined 7.56% to 2,165 while prices gained Rs.5.5. Support is placed at Rs.404.8, and a break below could lead to Rs.401.8. Resistance is seen at Rs.409.6, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs.411.4. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive, supported by supply concerns, although elevated inventories and demand weakness may restrict the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 401.8-411.4.

* Zinc rose as the accumulation of stocks in China, drove concerns about shortages elsewhere.

* LME zinc inventories fall 25% in two months while China stocks double this year

* LME cash-to-three-month premium jumps to $132

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.64% higher at Rs.347.9, supported by expectations of additional Chinese stimulus after weaker-than-expected industrial output, consumption and investment increased pressure on policymakers to strengthen domestic demand. China’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, raising expectations for further policy support, while a weaker dollar also supported the metal. However, gains were capped by expectations of faster production restarts in the Middle East, with EGA and Alba accelerating efforts to restore output and alternative shipping routes reducing supply disruptions. China’s aluminium production increased 3.8% YoY to around 3.9 million tonnes in July, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis rose 18.6% YoY to 643,000 tonnes, although they declined 9.6% MoM. Cumulative exports during January-July reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7% YoY. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% YoY to 6.16 million tonnes in July, mainly due to a sharp 44% decline in Gulf production to 293,000 tonnes as the Iran conflict disrupted smelter operations and export logistics. Gulf daily output fell to 9,800 tonnes from a pre-war baseline of 17,800 tonnes, while stronger Chinese production partially offset the decline. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% MoM to 201,000 tonnes at the end of July, reflecting reduced Middle East imports. Supply concerns also emerged from alumina, with Norsk Hydro cutting Alunorte output to 50% of capacity due to reduced natural gas availability, while Alcoa lowered 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes. Technically, aluminium is under short covering as open interest declined 22.39% to 2,596 while prices gained Rs.2.2. Support is placed at Rs.346.9, and a break below could push prices toward Rs.345.8. Resistance is seen at Rs.348.8, while a sustained move above this level could lead to Rs.349.6. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautiously positive, supported by Chinese stimulus expectations and lower global production, although Middle East restarts and rising Chinese output may limit gains.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 345.8-349.6.

* Aluminium gains as China is considering further stimulus amid Julys weaker-than-expected data.

* Support also seen as dollar fell as investors questioned whether the U.S. Treasury's efforts to calm the bond markets.

* Gulf aluminium output slides in July, weighing on global production

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.63% higher at Rs.22,038, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns that dry conditions and a potential El Nino could affect the newly sown crop. Lower-than-expected expansion in key growing regions initially strengthened fears of reduced production, while carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, tightening the overall availability buffer. However, the upside remained capped as monsoon activity revived across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, improving soil moisture and easing concerns over crop failure. Reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh also improved water availability, while re-sowing in North Karnataka was completed following rainfall. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase 16.05% YoY from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, with favourable prices encouraging farmers to expand sowing. Recent rainfall across major growing regions is expected to accelerate sowing, although the pace will depend on rainfall distribution and the potential influence of El Nino. Selling by farmers during the peak harvest period has created some pressure, while stockists remain cautious. Tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric, but growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remains strong, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% YoY to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026, while Apr-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay recorded strong growth in shipments. Nizamabad spot prices rose 0.26% to Rs.20,437.3. Technically, turmeric remains under fresh buying as open interest increased 1.89% to 36,625 while prices gained Rs.354. Support is placed at Rs.21,718, and a break below could test Rs.21,398. Resistance is seen at Rs.22,384, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs.22,730. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive, though improving monsoon conditions may limit further gains.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21398-22730.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20437.3 Rupees gained by 0.26 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.38% lower at Rs.20,735, pressured by aggressive farmer selling as growers liquidated stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing. Favorable weather in northwest India allowed harvesting and drying to progress quickly, accelerating arrivals, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement. Large industrial spice grinders remained cautious on bulk purchases, preferring to wait for lower prices, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria added pressure on Indian export premiums. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with arrivals at Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper significantly. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have also affected crop quality and harvestable volumes. Domestic processors and stockists are maintaining hand-to-mouth buying rather than aggressive forward coverage, keeping demand steady but limiting strong upside momentum. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while weaker Chinese and West Asian demand has reduced Indian export activity. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s jeera production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. China’s production estimate has been reduced to 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 34% YoY to 10,713 tonnes in June, while Apr-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Unjha spot prices declined 0.37% to Rs.20,606.3. Technically, jeera is under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.72% to 9,255 while prices fell Rs.80. Support is placed at Rs.20,540, and a break below could test Rs.20,350. Resistance is seen at Rs.20,900, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs.21,070. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious as comfortable supplies and weak exports offset concerns over lower production and tighter premium-quality availability.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20350-21070.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20606.3 Rupees dropped by -0.37 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views