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Gold

Gold prices declined in the previous session, settling 0.94% lower at 160,271, as a stronger U.S. Dollar Index and rising bond yields weighed on bullion. The dollar remained close to its strongest level this year, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to a five-week high, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. This pressure offset safe-haven demand that had emerged amid the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. On the economic front, United States inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index rising 0.3% in February, in line with expectations and higher than January’s 0.2% increase. Annual inflation held at 2.4%, keeping investors cautious about the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve. Markets are now looking ahead to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for further clues on the interest-rate trajectory. Meanwhile, central bank demand continues to offer longer-term support. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak for a 16th consecutive month, with reserves rising to 74.22 million fine troy ounces by the end of February. China also increased gold imports via Hong Kong, with net shipments jumping 68.7% month-on-month in January. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 3.6% to 7,824 while prices dropped Rs 1,518. Gold has immediate support at 159,270, with a break below potentially testing 158,270. On the upside, resistance is seen at 162,130, and a move above this level could push prices toward 163,990.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 158270-163990.

* Gold dropped amid a stronger dollar and dampened rate-cut bets.

* Dollar gains to ‌hold near its strongest levels this year while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were up at a five-week high.

* U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, matching forecasts and accelerating from January's 0.2% increase.

Silver

Silver prices ended marginally lower by 0.2% at Rs 267,962, as the market balanced persistent geopolitical tensions with evolving expectations around monetary policy. Recent U.S. economic data provided mixed signals. Initial jobless claims edged down by 1,000 to 213,000 in early March, slightly below expectations and broadly consistent with recent weeks. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply to $54.5 billion in January 2026, the smallest gap since October, reflecting improved trade dynamics compared to December’s revised $72.9 billion. In addition, U.S. housing starts rose a stronger-than-expected 7.2% month-on-month to an annualized 1.487 million units, indicating continued resilience in the housing sector. Despite these indicators, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with markets currently pricing in only one 25 basis point rate cut later this year, possibly around September. On the supply side, tightening physical availability continues to attract attention. Silver inventories on the SHFE have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level in nearly a decade. At the same time, holdings in London vaults fell 2.4% month-on-month to 27,065 tonnes, equivalent to roughly 902,177 silver bars valued at $78.3 billion. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.57% to 5,941 lots even as prices declined by Rs 529, suggesting new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is seen near Rs 264,445, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs 260,925. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs 273,215, and a sustained move above this level may open the door for a test of Rs 278,465.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 260925-278465.

* Silver dropped as market participants navigated between persistent geopolitical risks and shifting monetary policy expectations.

* Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 1,000 from the previous week to 213,000 in the first week of March.

* The US trade deficit narrowed sharply to $54.5 billion in January 2026, the lowest since October.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply, settling 8.6% higher at ?8,804, as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened fears of supply disruptions. Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport infrastructure across the region, raising concerns that the conflict could drag on and impact global energy flows, particularly through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that the U.S. Navy is currently unable to escort ships through the strait, although such support could potentially begin later this month.  Production trends across key producers also influenced the market. Russia’s oil output slipped by about 56,000 barrels per day in February to 9.184 million bpd, while Kazakhstan increased production by 293,000 bpd to 1.489 million bpd as output gradually recovered at the Tengiz oilfield. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI price forecasts for Q4 2026 to $71 and $67 per barrel, citing the possibility of prolonged disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. On the inventory front, U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, while gasoline inventories fell 3.7 million barrels and distillate stocks dropped 1.3 million barrels, reflecting stronger product demand. Technically, the market is showing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.84% to 17,371 lots alongside a price gain of Rs 697, indicating new long positions entering the market. Immediate support is seen at Rs 8,404, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs 8,003. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs 9,116, and a sustained move above this level may open the way for a test of Rs 9,427.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8003-9427.

* Crude oil prices rose as supplies from the Gulf remain constrained amid U.S. and Israel's war on Iran.

* IEA approved its largest-ever emergency oil release, tapping 400 million barrels to curb rising prices

* Brent oil prices are set to remain above $95 a barrel over the next two months - EIA

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher, settling 0.47% up at ?297.6, supported by rising global energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflict involving Iran, GCC countries, Israel, and U.S. forces has intensified concerns over supply disruptions. Notably, Qatar has halted all LNG operations, removing nearly 20% of global LNG supply from the market for now, while exports from the UAE have also been disrupted as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Looking at the broader supply outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects natural gas production to continue expanding in the coming years. Output is projected to rise from a record 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2025 to 109.5 bcfd in 2026, and further to 112.3 bcfd in 2027. However, domestic demand is expected to dip slightly to 91.4 bcfd in 2026 before recovering in 2027. Meanwhile, LNG exports are forecast to grow steadily, reaching 16.7 bcfd in 2026 and 18.1 bcfd in 2027. On the storage front, U.S. energy firms reported a smaller-than-expected withdrawal from inventories in the first week of March, signaling that the winter withdrawal season may be nearing its end. Storage levels remain 8.3% higher than last year, though 0.9% below the five-year average. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 6.6% to 19,567 lots while prices moved higher by Rs 1.4. Immediate support is seen at Rs 290.8, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs 284.1. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs 305, and a sustained move above this level may open the path toward Rs 312.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 284.1-312.5.

* Natural gas gains tracking European benchmarks as the war in Iran continued to threaten natural gas supply.

* Support also seen on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected.

* Strikes between Iran, GCC countries, Israel, and US forces in the region drove Qatar to halt all of its LNG operations.

Copper

Copper prices ended slightly lower, settling 0.11% down at Rs 1,202.3, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment. Rising crude oil prices have reignited concerns about inflation, which in turn has reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Markets are now largely pricing in only one rate cut later this year, a scenario that has continued to support the dollar and pressure base metals. Trade tensions also resurfaced after the Trump administration launched new investigations into China, the European Union, and other economies, aimed at replacing reciprocal tariffs that were recently struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. Despite the downside pressure, copper found some support from opportunistic buying by Chinese fabricators, particularly from the construction and renewable energy sectors. China’s consumer inflation also accelerated to its highest level in more than three years, partly due to the Lunar New Year holiday. On the supply side, workers at Glencore’s Townsville copper refinery in Australia have threatened to strike over a pay dispute, potentially impacting a facility capable of producing up to 300,000 tonnes annually. Meanwhile, inventories have increased significantly, with Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks rising to 391,539 tonnes from 180,543 tonnes in early January, while higher London Metal Exchange inventories also pressured prices. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest slipping 0.1% to 15,152 lots while prices eased by Rs 1.3. Immediate support is seen at Rs 1,196.9, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs 1,191.6. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs 1,207.6, and a sustained move above that could lead to a test of Rs 1,213.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1191.6-1213.

* Copper price settled down pressured by a stronger dollar as rising oil prices reignited inflation concerns.

* Forward-looking inflationary risks dampened expectations for Fed rate cuts, with forecasts pointing to only one reduction later this year.

* Workers at Glencore’s Australian copper refinery in Townsville, Queensland, have threatened to strike from Friday over a pay dispute

Zinc

Zinc prices edged slightly lower, settling 0.05% down at Rs 325.35, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the broader base metals complex. The dollar index moved above 99.50 amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty linked to the U.S.–Iran conflict, which has increased global risk aversion and added volatility to financial markets. Additional pressure came from rising inventories, with Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse stocks increasing 7.04% from the previous week. However, the downside remained limited as tight supply conditions and earlier mine closures continue to support the market. On the macro front, China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly below last year’s 5% pace, signaling a more cautious growth outlook. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China indicated it may use flexible monetary tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate adjustments to support economic activity this year. Supply dynamics are also evolving globally. Boliden’s Tara mine in Ireland has resumed operations after shutting in 2023 due to weak prices, while Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is gradually ramping up production. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market recorded a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, with demand rising 1.9% to 13.86 million tons and production increasing 2.1%. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 5.28% to 3,124 lots while prices slipped by Rs 0.15. Immediate support is seen near Rs 324.1, and a break below this level could lead to a test of Rs 322.7. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs 326.9, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 328.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 322.7-328.3.

* Zinc settled flat as dollar strengthened above 99.50 amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last Friday, the exchange said.

* China set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a slight downgrade from the 5% pace achieved last year.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices moved higher, settling 1.54% up at ?349.95, as markets reacted to growing concerns about potential supply disruptions from the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in the region has raised worries over shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for both aluminium and its raw materials such as alumina. Producers in the Middle East account for roughly 9% of global aluminium supply, so any disruption in the region is closely watched by the market. Some relief came after Norsk Hydro confirmed that its Qatalum smelter in Qatar would halt the production curtailment announced earlier and continue operating at about 60% capacity, despite reduced gas supplies and ongoing logistical challenges. Meanwhile, strong price gains on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have pushed the Shanghai Futures Exchange premium to its highest level since April 2022, potentially encouraging additional Chinese exports and helping balance global supply. Adding to supply concerns, Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain have declared force majeure on shipments, while South32 confirmed its Mozal aluminium plant in Mozambique will move into care and maintenance. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 0.58% to 3,231 lots while prices gained ?5.3. Immediate support is seen near Rs 346.6, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs 343.2. On the upside, resistance is likely around Rs 352.7, and a sustained move above this level may lead to a test of Rs 355.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 343.2-355.4.

* Aluminium rallied on worries of tighter supply to Europe and as the Middle East conflict disrupts shipments.

* The war in the Middle East has affected deliveries from aluminium producers that account for around 9% of global aluminium supply.

* Easing some of the immediate worries, Norsk Hydro said its Qatalum aluminium smelter in Qatar was halting the curtailment.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged slightly lower in the previous session, settling 0.34% down at 14,540, as the market faced pressure from expectations of higher arrivals in the coming weeks. Fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode, one of the key trading hubs, are likely to increase significantly over the next 10–15 days, which has weighed on near-term sentiment. Higher acreage supported by favourable rains during the sowing season has also added to supply expectations. However, the downside remains limited as current arrivals are still below normal and both domestic and export demand remain steady. Reports suggest that farmers and stockists have already reduced their inventories considerably, which could help support prices ahead of the new crop supplies. Production estimates indicate that India’s dried turmeric output may reach around 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season, although lower carry-forward stocks may restrict the overall rise in availability. Weather-related issues have also affected yields in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, where heavy rains caused waterlogging and disease in some areas. On the trade front, turmeric exports during April–December 2025 rose 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes, reflecting healthy overseas demand, particularly from Europe and the United States. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.94% to 17,405 while prices declined by Rs 50. Turmeric has immediate support at 14,414, with a break below potentially testing 14,288. On the upside, resistance is seen at 14,662, and a move above this level could push prices toward 14,784.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14288-14784.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15158.5 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

cprices slipped in the previous session, settling 0.65% lower at 22,300, as the arrival of the new crop began in several markets. Supplies are expected to increase further from March, which has put some pressure on prices. The market is also facing headwinds from comfortable stock levels and relatively weak export demand, with traders reporting limited fresh buying from overseas buyers. In Gujarat, one of the key producing regions, sowing activity has been slower than usual, with acreage down 14.34% year-on-year to around 4.08 lakh hectares. Production in the state is expected to fall sharply due to lower area and weaker yields. On the other hand, Rajasthan is likely to see improved output, supported by slightly higher acreage and better yields. Overall, India’s cumin production is estimated to decline about 5% to around 5.13 lakh tonnes this season, mainly due to erratic weather, reduced acreage, and crop diseases such as blight. Rising risks of aphid infestation in Rajasthan are also being closely monitored. Globally, supply uncertainties remain as production in countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan continues to face disruptions. However, export demand from India remains subdued. Data shows jeera exports during April–December 2025 declined 12.08% to 145,137 tonnes compared with the same period last year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.87% to 4,458 while prices dropped Rs 145. Jeera has immediate support at 22,170, with a break below potentially testing 22,040. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,410, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22040-22520.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21890.65 Rupees gained by 0.5 percent.