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Gold

Gold prices settled down 0.92% at Rs1,52,341 as stronger-than-expected US producer inflation increased expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy next week. US PPI rose 0.4% in August, while annual producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%, exceeding the 5.3% forecast, supported by surging energy prices and broader cost pass-through. Rising oil prices amid escalating US-Iran strikes in the Middle East further strengthened inflation concerns, with markets pricing more than 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16. Expectations of further ECB tightening also increased after the central bank raised rates and warned that inflation risks remained tilted upward. Supporting gold’s longer-term demand, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to 22 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 76.73 million fine troy ounces from 76.08 million in July, while the value of reserves climbed to $350.08 billion from $306.35 billion. Indian demand improved as lower prices encouraged buying, narrowing dealer discounts to as much as $54 per ounce from $135 last week, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging consumers to avoid unnecessary gold purchases. Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $3.5-$9 per ounce, compared with discounts previously, while Asian premiums remained modest. London vault holdings increased 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at $1.2 trillion and equivalent to approximately 762,723 bars. Technically, the market remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.3% while prices fell Rs1,422. Gold is finding support at Rs1,51,010, and a break below this level could trigger further weakness toward Rs1,49,680. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,54,060, above which prices could extend toward Rs1,55,780.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149680-155780.

* Gold fell as traders increased bets on Fed rate hike following stronger-than-expected US producer price data.

* US PPI rose 0.4% in August, while annual producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%, above the 5.3% forecast.

* Traders also raised bets on further ECB tightening after the central bank delivered an expected rate hike and warned that inflation risks remained.

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply lower by 4.14% at Rs2,34,099 as the dollar index strengthened to 99 and renewed oil gains amid escalating US-Iran hostilities increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Markets are now pricing a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, up from 60% previously, while an October increase is fully priced in. Although headline PPI accelerated 0.4%, core PPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, below both the previous 0.3% increase and market expectations, keeping Friday’s CPI report crucial for assessing future monetary policy. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points as expected and increased its inflation forecasts, adding to the global tightening backdrop. Despite weaker near-term demand expectations, the silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the potential for renewed liquidity constraints. London vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. The 2026 global silver deficit is forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, even as total demand declines 2%. Industrial fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Global supply is forecast to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 12.12% while prices declined Rs10,114, indicating increased participation on the downside. Silver is finding support at Rs2,30,300, and a break below this level could open further weakness toward Rs2,26,500. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs2,41,100, while a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs2,48,100.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 226500-248100.

* Silver dropped as dollar rose to 99, as rally in oil prices prompted investors to increase bets on a Fed rate hike.

* The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.9%.

* Markets are now pricing a 70% chance of a 25bps increase, up from 60%, while a hike is fully priced in for October.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled sharply higher by 6.85% at Rs9,722 as escalating US-Iran military strikes further threatened supply from the Middle East, with Tehran signaling that it would maintain a military blockade while the US targeted Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, a major energy infrastructure hub. The worsening geopolitical situation reduced expectations of a quick normalization in regional supply and increased concerns among Asian economies about securing replacement crude. China imported 8.93 million barrels per day of crude in August, up 6.2% from July, as inventory reliance since the conflict began had previously cushioned the global market from tighter Persian Gulf supplies. US crude inventories declined 0.391 million barrels in the week ended September 4, below expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks fell 0.684 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased by 90,000 barrels per day, although gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose 1.269 million barrels and distillate stocks increased 2.087 million barrels. Net US crude imports also climbed by 1.12 million barrels per day, limiting the impact of the headline inventory decline. Iraq plans to increase oil exports through Syria and Turkey’s Ceyhan route above 1 million barrels per day, with longer-term plans to raise total export capacity to 5 million barrels per day after strategic pipeline projects. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand growth outlook. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying pressure, with open interest rising 3.24% to 19,973 while prices gained Rs623, confirming increased participation alongside the rally. Crude oil is getting support at Rs9,266, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs8,810. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs9,976, while a sustained move above this level could extend the rally toward Rs10,230.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8810-10230.

* Crude oil rose as escalatory strikes between Iran and the US further suppressed supply from the key region.

* Iraq plans to boost oil exports via Syria and Turkey to above 1 mln bpd.

* Iran has ordered a temporary suspension of a 10% freight surcharge on foreign vessels transporting energy products into or out of Iran.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.3% higher at Rs270.5, supported by surging oil prices and expectations of stronger demand over the next two weeks, although gains remained limited by near-record US production and a larger-than-expected storage injection. US gas inventories were 5.2% above the five-year seasonal average as of August 28, while Lower 48 output increased to 112.9 bcfd in September from August’s record monthly level of 112.2 bcfd, highlighting persistent supply pressure. However, above-average temperatures across the South and Southeast through September 18 are expected to sustain air-conditioning demand and support power-sector gas consumption. Gas flows to nine major US LNG export facilities also increased to 18.1 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, while stronger European and Asian LNG demand is encouraging exports as buyers replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies and prepare for winter. US energy firms added 40 bcf to storage during the week ended September 4, exceeding expectations of a 31-bcf build and the five-year average injection of 52 bcf for the period. Total inventories reached 3.254 tcf, standing 2.4% below last year but 4.8% above the five-year average. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.26% to 56,751 while prices gained Rs0.8, indicating reduced bearish positioning. Natural gas is getting support at Rs266.6, and a break below this level could lead to Rs262.6. Resistance is placed at Rs272.7, while a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs274.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 262.6-274.8.

* Natural gas recovered supported by surging oil prices and boosted demand forecasts for the next two weeks

* US gas inventories were 5.2% above the five-year seasonal average as of August 28

* Output across the Lower 48 rose to 112.9 bcfd so far in September from August’s monthly high of 112.2 bcfd, reinforcing the supply overhang.

Copper

Copper settled sharply lower by 3.64% at Rs1,372.65 as uncertainty over potential US tariffs on refined copper triggered profit-taking, with White House officials weighing higher manufacturing costs against incentives for greater domestic mining activity. The decline also reflected easing physical tightness, as the premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract narrowed to $41 per ton from $436 in mid-August. COMEX copper stocks stood at 696,259 tons, while the narrowing COMEX premium slowed daily warehouse inflows. SHFE-monitored inventories were around 63,000 tons, down 85% from the mid-March peak and at their lowest level since January 2024. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports fell to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July, while January-August imports declined 6.7% year-on-year to 3.30 million tons. Copper concentrate imports also declined to 19.49 million tons during the first eight months from 20.06 million tons a year earlier. Supply concerns persisted as Chilean copper production fell 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tons due to severe storms disrupting mining operations. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-ton deficit in June compared with a 15,000-ton surplus in May, although the January-June period still showed a 131,000-ton surplus versus 114,000 tons a year earlier. World refined copper output reached 2.37 million tons in June against consumption of 2.43 million tons. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 10.22% to 10,292 while prices fell Rs51.85, indicating liquidation-driven weakness. Copper is getting support at Rs1,351.5, and a break below this level could trigger further weakness toward Rs1,330.3. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,412.4, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs1,452.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1330.3-1452.1.

* Copper dropped after reports that the White House has not decided on tariffs on refined copper.

* US officials are weighing that higher copper prices could raise manufacturing costs

* The premium of LME cash contract over 3M has eased to $41 a ton from $436 in mid-August, indicating less acute physical tightness.

Zinc

Zinc settled sharply lower by 3.24% at Rs415.15 amid mounting expectations of Chinese export deliveries into LME warehouses, compounded by a sharp pullback in LME copper following shifting US tariff expectations. However, downside remained limited by significant supply pressures, with disruptions at several mines in China and elsewhere raising concerns over concentrate availability, while Middle East tensions restricted Iranian ore shipments. Major mines including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska are facing lower output as operations move through lower-grade ore sections. LME inventories remain historically low, while physical zinc availability is particularly tight outside China, reflected in sharply lower smelter treatment charges. Chinese zinc exports could nevertheless provide some relief to international markets, while SHFE warehouse inventories declined 3.3% from the previous week. Nexa reported Q2 zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Glencore’s own-sourced zinc production fell 21% year-on-year to 365,600 tonnes in H1 2026, although its full-year guidance remained at 700,000-740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in H1. The global refined zinc market shifted to a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market retained a 120,000-tonne surplus. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.56% to 2,356 while prices fell Rs13.9, indicating liquidation-led weakness. Zinc is getting support at Rs409.9, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs404.6. Resistance is placed at Rs425.2, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs435.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 404.6-435.2.

* Zinc fell on China export concerns and LME copper's pullback amid tariff shifts.

* Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability.

* LME warehouse inventories remain low relative to historical levels, while physical zinc availability remains particularly tight outside China.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled lower by 1.81% at Rs349.3 as expectations of faster production recovery at Emirates Global Aluminium and Alba weighed on sentiment, although persistent physical supply tightness and declining inventories limited the downside. EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% of capacity and is expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027. The US-Iran conflict continued disrupting Middle Eastern aluminium flows, with GCC primary output plunging 44% year-on-year in July to 293,000 tonnes from 523,000 tonnes. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes, while Gulf daily production fell below the pre-war baseline. LME inventories remained near a 36-year low, while SHFE stocks declined 3% week-on-week, highlighting tight physical availability. The LME cash premium strengthened to $16 per tonne from a $5 discount two weeks earlier, further signalling nearby supply tightness. Alunorte in Brazil temporarily reduced production to 50% of capacity in August before restoring full output, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions. China’s aluminium exports reached 626,000 tonnes in August, taking January-August exports to 4.67 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year, potentially easing international supply constraints. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports declined 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 10.25% to 3,826 while prices fell Rs6.45, indicating liquidation-led weakness. Aluminium is getting support at Rs346.7, and a break below this level could trigger further weakness toward Rs344. Resistance is placed at Rs354.4, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs359.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 344-359.4.

* Aluminium dropped as EGA and Alba maintain upbeat restart and ramp up expectations

* The premium of the cash LME contract over the benchmark was at $16 per ton, compared with a $5 discount two weeks ago, signalling tighter nearby supply.

* China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell to 626,000 metric tons in August from 643,000 tons in July

Turmeric

Turmeric settled higher by 0.28% at Rs20,558 amid concerns over deficient rainfall, potential El Nino impact and lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions, raising fears of reduced output in the upcoming harvest. Declining carry-forward stocks have further tightened the supply outlook, with industry estimates placing inventories at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could negatively affect yields, while farmer selling during the peak harvest window has created some near-term pressure. However, revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka has eased crop stress, while improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are supporting water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, improving crop conditions and reducing immediate crop failure concerns. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations continue affecting commercial-grade turmeric, with non-IPM compliant lots facing rejections and discounts, while growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remained strong, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes, while April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay recorded strong growth in shipments, indicating broad-based international demand. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs20,413.35, gaining 0.98%. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.42% to 35,940 while prices gained Rs58, indicating reduced bearish positioning. Turmeric is getting support at Rs20,490, and a break below this level could lead to further weakness toward Rs20,420. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs20,640, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs20,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20420-20720.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20413.35 Rupees gained by 0.98 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled lower by 0.45% at Rs20,900 as farmers aggressively liquidated stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the upcoming season, while favorable weather in North-West India accelerated harvesting, drying and deliveries. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement, and large industrial spice grinders remained cautious, delaying bulk purchases while awaiting lower prices. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper significantly. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, supporting demand for quality seeds, while Middle East geopolitical instability continues to disrupt logistics and weaken buying activity from traditional markets. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat areas have also reduced harvestable crop quality and quantity. Production estimates indicate India’s cumin crop may decline to 90-92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. China’s production estimate has been reduced to 70-80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports fell 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports declined 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Despite the broader decline, Singapore, Oman and Argentina recorded strong growth in shipments. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs21,160, down 0.1%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 6.95% to 4,017 while prices fell Rs95, indicating liquidation pressure. Jeera is getting support at Rs20,820, and a break below this level could lead to Rs20,740. Resistance is placed at Rs20,990, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,080.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20740-21080.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the upcoming season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21160 Rupees dropped by -0.1 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views