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Gold

Gold settled 0.77% lower at Rs. 142,596, pressured by persistent inflation concerns and expectations of further US interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but maintained the possibility of a December hike, with traders pricing in nearly a 90% probability of an increase. The European Central Bank also held rates steady, keeping its main refinancing rate at 2.65% and deposit rate at 2.50%, while warning that elevated energy prices could intensify inflationary pressures and weigh on economic growth. Meanwhile, analysts lowered their 2026 gold price forecast to $4,495 per ounce from $4,509, citing elevated Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar and expectations of higher interest rates for longer, although a recovery is anticipated in 2027. Physical demand showed signs of improvement in India, where lower prices during the Dussehra festival lifted buying activity and domestic premiums to $9 per ounce from $7 last week. China's net gold imports through Hong Kong increased 28% month-on-month to 74.987 tonnes in September, reaching a five-month high, while its central bank extended gold purchases for the 23rd consecutive month. Global central bank buying and diversification remain important structural supports, with Goldman Sachs maintaining its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce. However, the investment bank cautioned that a more hawkish Fed could trigger a correction towards $4,070 before prices potentially recover to $4,200 by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults rose 1.96% month-on-month to 9,821 tonnes at the end of September, valued at approximately $1.3 trillion. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 0.08% to 15,603 contracts, while prices declined by Rs. 1,109. Gold is currently finding support at Rs. 141,990, followed by Rs. 141,390, while resistance is placed at Rs. 143,560. A sustained move above this level could open the way towards Rs. 144,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141390-144520.

* Gold slid as sticky inflation fueled bets of a potential interest rate hike by the US Federal reserve later this year.

* Fed expectedly kept rates unchanged, deferring changes to borrowing costs until after next week's midterm elections.

* Traders are still pricing in about an 90% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.

* ECB left interest rates unchanged at its October 2026 meeting, as expected, keeping the main refinancing rate at 2.65%.

Silver

Silver settled 2.51% lower at Rs. 189,453, facing pressure from persistent inflation concerns, resilient US economic growth and expectations of a potential interest rate hike later this year. The US PCE price index increased 0.5% month-on-month in September, taking annual inflation to 3.6%, while core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.1%. Meanwhile, US GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding market expectations of 3.2%. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but markets continue to price in nearly a 90% probability of a December rate hike. Analysts have lowered their silver price outlook amid elevated Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar and expectations of higher interest rates for longer, although a recovery is anticipated in 2027. The global silver market is heading towards its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the shortfall projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Despite the structural deficit, total demand is expected to decline 2%, while industrial silver fabrication could fall 3% to a four-year low due to weaker industrial activity and geopolitical uncertainties. In contrast, coin and bar demand is forecast to increase 18%, supported by recovering investment demand in the US. Global silver supply is also expected to decline 2%. According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from inventories since 2021, highlighting continued supply tightness. However, improved liquidity in the London market has reduced immediate squeeze concerns, with potentially available silver stocks accounting for 28% of London vault holdings at the end of March. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $56.6 billion. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 7.62% to 17,862 contracts, while prices declined by Rs. 4,872. Silver is currently finding support at Rs. 187,630, followed by Rs. 185,800, while resistance is placed at Rs. 192,600. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 195,740.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 185800-195740.

* Silver prices fell as investors assessed a fresh batch of US economic data.

* US PCE price index rose 0.5% month over month in September, its largest increase since March, while annual inflation climbed to 3.6%.

* US GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% in the third quarter, beating expectations of 3.2% on resilient consumer spending and AI-driven investment.

* Fed held interest rates steady ahead, but markets continue to price in an approximately 90% chance of a rate hike in December.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.91% lower at Rs. 9,709 as hopes of renewed diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran eased concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. US Vice President JD Vance reportedly sought to revive peace negotiations with Tehran, while Iran indicated its willingness to continue diplomatic efforts, raising hopes of a possible de-escalation. However, concerns over intensified attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis and the possibility of further US action against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections limited the downside. UBS raised its end-2026 Brent crude forecast to $110 per barrel from $100, citing persistent geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruptions to Gulf production. Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, against expectations of a modest increase, while Cushing stocks fell by 624,000 barrels. Distillate inventories also declined by 1.5 million barrels, whereas gasoline stocks increased by 3.9 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. Refinery utilization slipped 0.6 percentage points to 92.8%. On the supply side, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive time to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day projected at the beginning of the year, while raising its 2027 outlook on expectations of recovering demand and inventory rebuilding. OPEC+ production increased in September, led by a significant rise in Saudi Arabian output. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production increased by 65,000 barrels per day to 8.43 million barrels per day in September, although it remained below year-ago levels amid continued disruptions to refining operations. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 18.47% to 13,713 contracts, while prices fell by Rs. 89. Crude oil is currently finding support at Rs. 9,565, followed by Rs. 9,420, while resistance is placed at Rs. 9,795. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 9,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9420-9880.

* Crude oil dropped as hopes for ‌peace talks took the edge off renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.

* US crude and distillate inventories fell due to higher demand, while gasoline stockpiles rose last week

* U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week to 209.2 million barrels, the EIA said

* UBS sees $110 brent by year-end as Gulf flows stay below prewar levels

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 3.86% lower at Rs. 281.80 as recovering US domestic production and stronger-than-expected storage injections outweighed support from rising LNG exports. Average natural gas output across the US Lower 48 states declined to 112.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October from record levels of 113.3 bcfd in August and September, although daily production recovered to around 113.3 bcfd over the past week. Meanwhile, average flows to the nine major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.5 bcfd in October from 17.9 bcfd in September, providing some support to demand. However, forecasts of mostly milder-than-normal weather through November 13 are expected to limit heating demand in the near term. US natural gas inventories increased by 80 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 23, exceeding market expectations of 75 bcf and the previous week's addition of 77 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.724 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.8% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration projected domestic natural gas production to reach record levels of 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while consumption is expected to increase to 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to rise to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. However, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 NYMEX natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and expectations that supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects the US market to remain comfortably supplied in the medium term, indicating continued pressure on prices. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased 18.84% to 58,919 contracts, while prices declined by Rs. 11.30. Natural gas is currently finding support at Rs. 273.50, followed by Rs. 265.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 292.00. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 302.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural Gas trading range for the day is 265.50-302.50.

* Natural gas dropped amid recovering domestic production and stronger-than-expected storage additions.

* US energy companies added 80 bcf of natural gas to storage, exceeding market expectations for an injection of 75 bcf.

* Average gas output slid to 112.1 bcfd so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.

* Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants has risen to 18.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September.

Copper

Copper settled 0.86% lower at Rs. 1,394.45, pressured by improved production from Glencore and concerns over the global refined copper surplus, although tight availability outside the United States continued to support the market. Glencore reported a 3% increase in copper production during the first nine months of the year, while inventories in warehouses linked to the US Comex exchange surged 60% so far this year to 800,321 short tons. However, supply tightness in China remained evident, with the Yangshan copper premium rising to $205 per tonne, its highest level in more than a decade. The LME cash copper contract also traded at a premium of $199.50 over the three-month forward contract, indicating near-term supply constraints. China's economy provided additional support, with third-quarter GDP growth at 4.5% and September industrial production increasing 5.5% year-on-year. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September. Meanwhile, mine disruptions continued to affect supply, with production declining at major operations in Chile and Peru, although Codelco reported improved output in August. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July. The global market recorded a surplus of 218,000 tonnes during the first eight months of the year. The ICSG expects the surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by rising mine and refined production, although demand from electrification, renewable energy, data centres and artificial intelligence is expected to provide underlying support. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 2.17% to 6,821 contracts, while prices fell by Rs. 12.15. Copper is currently finding support at Rs. 1,386, followed by Rs. 1,378, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,404.50. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 1,415.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1378.00-1415.00.

* Copper dropped as Glencore reported a 3% increase in copper production for the first nine months of the year.

* Inventories in warehouses linked to the US Comex exchange have surged 60% so far this year to 726,039 metric tons.

* Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of Chinese consumers' appetite for imported units, surged to $205 a ton, its highest in more than a decade.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.86% lower at Rs. 409.45 as expectations of recovering Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability raised prospects of easing supply tightness. However, downside remained limited by concerns over mine supply disruptions and shortages in Western markets. Near-term tightness was evident in the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract, which surged to $106 per tonne from $45 last week. Meanwhile, available LME inventories declined 14% week-on-week, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell 5% to 137,139 tonnes, their lowest level since March. LME inventories stood at 133,700 tonnes. Supply constraints in Western markets remained significant, with refined zinc production declining 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 due to elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. China's refined zinc production also declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September. However, the resumption of Chinese mines following operational disruptions and safety inspections is expected to improve concentrate availability in October, potentially limiting further price gains. Concerns over Nyrstar's loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands have added uncertainty to the Western supply outlook, although Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to increase refined zinc production by 32% in the second half of its fiscal year. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August, compared with a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July. However, the market is projected to move from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by a 2% increase in refined production to 14.21 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is expected to rise 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, driven by stronger consumption in Europe, India and the US, while slower Chinese real estate investment could restrict demand growth. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased 13.02% to 2,187 contracts, while prices declined by Rs. 7.75. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs. 404.50, followed by Rs. 399.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 417. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 424.50.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 399.50-424.50.

* Zinc dropped as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

* Stocks held on the SHFE dropped 5% from the previous week to 137,139 tonnes, marking their lowest level since March.

* China’s refined zinc output fell 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.26% lower at Rs. 329.45, pressured by a stronger US dollar and persistent concerns over a potential global surplus in 2027. Market sentiment also remained cautious amid Middle East geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of possible escalation following the US midterm elections. On the supply side, Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected by the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China continued to maximise production, with primary aluminium output rising 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tonnes in September, while third-quarter production increased 2.2% to 11.84 million tonnes. China's output during the first nine months reached 35.03 million tonnes, up 3.8% year-on-year, supported by strong smelting margins and operational efficiencies. However, global primary aluminium production declined 1.4% year-on-year to 6.014 million tonnes in September, reflecting weaker output, particularly in the Gulf region. Supply concerns eased somewhat as restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz improved, reconnecting Gulf smelters with global markets. Additionally, Indonesian aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, highlighting the growing availability of new supply. Expectations of increased production from Indonesia and recovering Gulf output have raised concerns that the global aluminium market could move into a surplus exceeding 1 million tonnes in 2027. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses declined more than 10% to 212,858 tonnes, while LME stocks stood at 234,100 tonnes. Japanese port inventories also declined 9.5% month-on-month to 223,200 tonnes at the end of September, indicating relatively tight available stocks. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding as open interest declined 1.15% to 4,471 contracts, while prices fell by Rs. 0.85. Aluminium is currently finding support at Rs. 327.50, followed by Rs. 325.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 331.50. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 333.00.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 325.50-333.00.

* Aluminium dropped amid stronger dollar, and persistent concerns over a CY27 global surplus.

* China’s domestic aluminium demand is nearing capacity limits, pushing producers to expand abroad.

* Market sentiment was disturbed by Middle East geopolitical risks and US midterm election expectations.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.23% higher at Rs. 26,762, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Stockholders have become reluctant to liquidate inventories following earlier selling phases, while concerns over dry weather and potential El Niño conditions have raised worries about crop yields in key growing regions. Karnataka's drought conditions have severely affected cultivation, with a joint survey by the state departments reporting turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 18,824 lakh. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels and completed re-sowing in North Karnataka, has eased some crop-failure concerns. India's turmeric production is nevertheless projected to increase around 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, keeping the overall supply buffer relatively tight. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers is providing additional support, although stricter European Union maximum residue limits have resulted in rejections of non-compliant lots and discounts for commercial-grade stocks. On the export front, India's turmeric shipments declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil recorded strong growth, while exports to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs. 25,256.20, gaining 0.05%. Overall, tight carry-forward stocks and weather-related uncertainties continue to support prices, while improved rainfall, acreage expansion and farmer selling may limit further gains. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.19% to 18,315 contracts and prices gaining Rs. 326. Turmeric is finding support at Rs. 26,490, followed by Rs. 26,220, while resistance is placed at Rs. 27,040; a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 27,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 26220-27320.

* Turmeric prices gained amid on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

* Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation.

* Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 25256.2 Rupees gained by 0.05 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 2.08% higher at Rs. 26,255, supported by tight nearby supply, improved overseas buying interest and concerns over lower production in the current season. Farmers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window, while the rapid tightening in premium-quality bold seed availability has provided additional support. Arrivals across major trading centres, including Unjha and Rajasthan, have started tapering, although overall physical availability remains relatively stable. India's cumin production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output projected at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has also reduced China's production estimates to 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. However, upside remains limited by farmer selling, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice processors, who continue to follow hand-to-mouth buying. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria may also put pressure on Indian export premiums, while Middle East geopolitical uncertainty continues to affect traditional trade flows. European and North American buyers have shown renewed interest in residue-compliant, high-quality lots. On the export front, India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, while cumulative shipments during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes a year earlier. For September 2025-August 2026, exports declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices ended at Rs. 26,233.90, gaining 0.23%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.73% to 7,851 contracts while prices gained Rs. 535. Jeera is finding support at Rs. 25,840, followed by Rs. 25,430, while resistance is placed at Rs. 26,510; a sustained move above this level could take prices towards Rs. 26,770.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 25430-26770.

* Jeera gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

* Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

* Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26233.9 Rupees gained by 0.23 percent.

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