Gold, Silver Enter 3–5 Year Bull Phase Backed by Rates, Dollar and Demand Trends:Emkay Wealth Management
Emkay Wealth Management Ltd, the wealth management arm of Emkay Global Financial Services in its latest Navigator magazineon Gold & Silver cited that,Gold and silver continue to command strong investor interest as the global precious metals rally extends into 2026, supported by a combination of macroeconomic trends, structural demand and long-term portfolio reallocation. Gold remains close to its recent record highs, while silver continues to trade at elevated levels following a decisive breakout, reinforcing the view that the current rally is fundamentals driven rather than speculative.
According to Emkay Wealth, the ongoing uptrend in precious metals marks a clear departure from earlier cycles dominated by short-term trading activity. The current phase is being powered by sustained asset allocation into gold and silver as part of diversified portfolios, reflecting a shift in investor behaviour amid heightened global uncertainty. Emkay Wealth had first recommended gold funds in FY22–23 and maintained its positive stance through subsequent years, while silver was added to recommended portfolios since early 2025, reflecting its growing relevance as both a precious metal and an industrial input.
“The current rally in gold and silver is not being driven by speculation, but by a structural shift in how investors globally are allocating capital,” said Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management. “With central banks continuing to accumulate gold, interest rate cycles turning supportive, and silver benefiting from rising industrial demand, precious metals are increasingly being viewed as core portfolio assets rather than tactical hedges. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the medium- to long-term case for maintaining measured exposure to gold and silver remains strong.”
Gold prices have been rising steadily for over eighteen months, supported by expectations of a softer US dollar amid potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Historically, lower interest rates and a weakening dollar have acted as strong tailwinds for precious metals. In addition, consistent buying by central banks and institutional investors since 2022 has provided durable price support and helped limit downside risks.
From a market-cycle perspective, both gold and silver have emerged from nearly a decade-long consolidation phase and entered a structural bull market around a year ago. Analysis of historical price behaviour over the past three decades suggests that such breakout phases typically persist for three to five years. Investors who allocated to gold over the past 12 to 18 months have already benefited from strong gains, which have been further enhanced for Indian investors by the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar.
Silver’s performance has been particularly noteworthy due to the expansion of industrial demand across sectors such as renewable energy, electronics and advanced manufacturing. This differentiates the current rally from earlier cycles and lends greater sustainability to price movements. While periodic profit-taking may occur after sharp rallies, the broader trend remains well supported by structural demand.
Emkay Wealth notes that the pace of further upside will depend on global economic and policy developments. A moderation in global growth combined with accommodative monetary policy would continue to support gold and silver prices. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected recovery in the US economy or sustained dollar strength could temporarily slow the momentum. For Indian investors, currency movements remain a key variable, as any sharp appreciation in the rupee could moderate returns despite stable global prices.
For existing investors, the recommendation is to continue holding gold and silver as part of a diversified portfolio. Any incremental additions should be made gradually and preferably during periods of correction. Portfolios with relatively high exposure, particularly where gold and silver together account for more than 25 to 30 percent of assets, should be reviewed with a professional advisor to assess profit booking while retaining strategic allocations.
New investors looking to enter after the sharp run-up are advised to adopt a disciplined approach. An allocation of around 5 to 10 percent of the overall portfolio may be more appropriate. Investments are best staggered over time to mitigate volatility, with options including physical gold, gold and silver ETFs, gold mutual funds and precious metal-linked investment products.
Overall, Emkay Wealth believes that gold and silver remain well supported at current levels, with the structural drivers of the rally firmly in place. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the medium- to long-term outlook for precious metals remains constructive as invest
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