Gold`s speculative froth purged, Dhanteras a classic entry point for long-term investors: Monarch Networth Capital
On Dhanteras 2025 (18 October 2025), domestic 24K retail gold was approximately Rs1,30,860 per 10 grams. Ahead of Dhanteras 2026, it trades around Rs1,40,000–1,41,500, a YoY gain of roughly 7%–8%. That still comfortably beats typical capital-protection baselines in a highly volatile year, according to Dhruv Joglekar, Assistant Fund Manager, Monarch PMS
As Dhanteras 2026 arrives, the precious metal presents a dramatically altered tactical landscape compared to its multi-year highs. According to Monarch Networth Capital, the violent 30% correction in 2026 was a technical deleveraging event within an ongoing bull cycle, rather than a fundamental trend reversal.
The defining characteristic of 2026 has been a massive structural reset following a speculative overshoot. On 28 January 2026, international spot gold peaked at an all-time high of US$5,589 per ounce, pushing domestic Indian prices over an unprecedented ?1.80 lakh per 10 grams. The subsequent unwinding of leveraged positions, triggered by a hawkish transition to Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve leadership and elevated CME margin calculations, forced a sharp technical correction.
Gold beats capital protection baselines despite the correction
Monarch PMS’ valuation of gold—basis above-ground gold stock (~221,700 t) valued against reserve-currency (US M2 fully + 50% euro-area M2)—prices the yellow metal in the range of $3,248–4,595, with a midpoint of $3,922. October’s low near US$3,870 stayed well within the modelled range. The market has successfully re-anchored itself directly to its fair value.
“For long-term investors, this Dhanteras represents a classic entry point. Speculative froth has been purged, while the underlying macroeconomic tailwinds remain intact,” concludes Joglekar.
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