Gold prices to touch $3,600 per ounce by year-end amid geopolitical tensions
Gold prices are expected to remain elevated in the second half of 2025 due to macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tensions, a report said on Tuesday.
Comex Gold is expected to reach $3,600 per ounce by the end of 2025, surpassing the record high of $3,534.10 seen this year on August 7, the report from trading and investment platform Ventura Securities said.
The jump in price will be driven by strong ETF inflows, stable central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India’s gold investment market, the investment platform said.
Gen Z investors, fractional ownership models, social media, and fintech advances are driving the shift from traditional jewellery ownership to tech-enabled investment channels, the report said.
According to the report, the positive yearly returns from gold in 14 of the last 20 years underscore that the yellow metal is a reliable store of value and inflation hedge.
"Gold's strategic importance in portfolios has increased amid slower global growth, policy uncertainty, and increased geopolitical risks. With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated US Fed rate cuts, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025," said NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities, Ventura.
India's gold ETF holdings rose 42 per cent on-year to 66.68 tonnes on June 30, 2025, with AUM increasing by 88 per cent to Rs 64,777 crore. The number of investor accounts increased by 41 per cent to 76.54 lakh.
The yellow metal clocked an average annual return of 23 per cent over the last three years compared to the Nifty 50’s 11 per cent. In the current volatile market conditions, gold’s negative correlation to equities has provided effective diversification, cushioning portfolio losses during sell-offs while participating in upswings.
