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Gold

Gold prices rebounded sharply, settling 2.1% higher at  Rs.150,761, supported by a softer dollar and short-covering. However, bullion remains on track for its worst monthly performance in over 17 years, as elevated energy prices continue to dampen expectations of a U.S. rate cut. Rising oil prices amid escalating Middle East tensions have reinforced inflation concerns, prompting markets to almost fully price out any Federal Reserve easing in 2026. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to assess the broader economic impact of geopolitical shocks. On the physical front, demand trends remained mixed. India witnessed a marginal pickup in buying interest due to softer prices, although overall sentiment stayed cautious. Discounts in India narrowed to $61 per ounce, while premiums in China eased to $14–$18, reflecting subdued demand. Other Asian hubs like Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore showed relatively stable to weaker premiums, indicating restrained physical consumption across the region. Meanwhile, central bank activity continues to underpin long-term demand. According to the World Gold Council, emerging market central banks are increasingly entering the gold market, driven by diversification and geopolitical hedging, although elevated prices may slightly moderate total purchases this year. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest with open interest rising 3.1% to 6,628 lots. Gold has immediate support at  Rs.149,260, with a downside test possible at  Rs.147,765. Resistance is placed at  Rs.151,575, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.152,395.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147765-152395.

* Gold prices edged higher helped by a softer dollar.

* Gold posted worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a U.S. interest rate cut this year.

* Before the war in the Middle East began, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year.

Silver

Silver saw a strong rebound, closing 5.21% higher at  Rs.240,892, as markets reacted to ongoing geopolitical tensions and tightening physical supply conditions. The metal continues to draw support from concerns over disruptions in key shipping routes, particularly with escalating risks around the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. While Donald Trump indicated progress in peace discussions, his warning about potential escalation if the Strait remains blocked has kept sentiment volatile. At the same time, precious metals have been under pressure this month due to rising oil prices, which have strengthened inflation concerns and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts. Jerome Powell maintained that long-term inflation expectations remain stable, though uncertainty linked to the conflict persists. Market participants are now closely watching upcoming U.S. jobs data, which could shape the near-term outlook for silver. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,065 tonnes at the end of February 2026, marking a 2.4% monthly decline—an indication of tightening availability that may continue to support prices. From a technical perspective, the market reflects fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.3% to 5,782 lots. Silver has immediate support at  Rs.236,610, with further downside toward  Rs.232,325. On the upside, resistance is seen at  Rs.243,400, and a breakout could push prices toward  Rs.245,905.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 232325-245905.

* Silver rose as the market balanced amid persistent threat of physical supply shortages and Houthi activity in the Red Sea.

* Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank can wait to see how the Iran war affects the economy and inflation

* As the market awaits key US jobs data the trajectory for silver hinges on the current peace plan's success.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices slipped 2.43% to settle at  Rs.9,567, as rising hopes of a potential de-escalation in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. Reports suggest Donald Trump may consider ending U.S. military operations even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, aiming to avoid a prolonged conflict. At the same time, Iran has signaled a willingness to halt hostilities under certain guarantees, although recent attacks on oil tankers near Dubai highlight that risks to energy infrastructure remain elevated. On the fundamentals side, supply data painted a mixed picture. U.S. crude inventories surged by 6.93 million barrels, far exceeding expectations and marking the fifth consecutive weekly build. Stocks at Cushing also saw a sharp rise, while distillate inventories increased unexpectedly. However, gasoline inventories declined, offering some support to demand sentiment. Meanwhile, speculative positioning showed money managers increasing net long positions, indicating underlying bullish interest. Globally, production trends remain dynamic. Russian output edged lower, while Kazakhstan saw a notable recovery in supply, according to OPEC data. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 6.71% to 15,249 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.9,332, with a break potentially leading to  Rs.9,096. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.9,849, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.10,130.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9096-10130.

* Crude oil dropped as hopes rose for a Middle East de-escalation.

* Iran attacked the Kuwaiti oil tanker Al-Salmi near Dubai, damaging its hull, signaling willingness to escalate strikes on energy infrastructure.

* Reports indicate President Donald Trump may end US military operations in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged slightly lower, settling down 0.07% at  Rs.274.3, as warmer weather forecasts across the eastern U.S. weighed on demand expectations heading into spring. Temperatures are projected to remain above average into early and mid-April, reducing heating demand and supporting expectations of rising inventories. Although the latest data showed a larger-than-expected storage draw of 54 bcf, it is widely viewed as the final withdrawal of the winter season. Fundamentally, the supply outlook remains comfortable. Total inventories stand at 1.829 trillion cubic feet, about 5.2% higher than last year and slightly above the five-year average. Production also remains strong, with output in the Lower 48 states averaging 109.7 bcfd in March. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, production is expected to rise further in 2026, even as demand softens slightly. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions persist, with Donald Trump warning of possible escalation in the Middle East, though the impact on U.S. gas prices remains limited due to strong domestic fundamentals. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 3.45% to 26,811 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.267.4, with a further downside toward  Rs.260.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.281.7, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.289.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 260.6-289.2.

* Natural gas dropped as warmer weather forecasts across the eastern US reduced demand expectations heading into spring.

* Temperatures are now seen above average from March 30 to early April and again mid month, limiting heating needs.

* EIA reported a larger than usual storage draw last week, it is widely seen as the final withdrawal of the winter season.

Copper

Copper prices moved higher, settling up 0.95% at  Rs.1,163.7, supported by continued declines in China’s copper inventories and signs of improving downstream demand. Stocks across major Chinese regions dropped nearly 13.8% week-on-week, while inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also saw a notable fall. However, higher prices have started to limit fresh buying, slowing the pace of inventory drawdowns. That said, gains remain capped by ample global supply. Inventories in LME-approved warehouses have surged to an eight-year high, rising sharply since the start of the year. On the production side, Chile—one of the world’s key suppliers—reported a slight decline in output, with disruptions at major mines like El Teniente weighing on volumes. Production from major players like Codelco and BHP also showed year-on-year declines. Looking ahead, market outlooks remain mixed. While some institutions expect prices to soften in the near term due to macro uncertainty, others remain bullish, citing a widening supply deficit and steady demand growth. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.47% to 9,158 lots. Copper has immediate support at  Rs.1,156.4, with further downside seen at  Rs.1,148.9. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.1,168.2, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward  Rs.1,172.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1148.9-1172.5.

* Copper gains as weekly social inventory of copper cathode in China’s major regions continued to decline.

* China’s copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 13.81% WoW from last Monday, with all regions continuing destocking.

* In January, Chile produced 409,900 tonnes of copper, a 3% year-on-year decline.

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher, settling up 1.28% at  Rs.319.45, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data from China. The country’s manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.4 in March, signaling a return to expansion and boosting sentiment across industrial metals. At the same time, supportive policy signals from the People's Bank of China, including a commitment to maintain ample liquidity, added further strength to the market. Fundamentally, zinc is drawing support from tightening inventories and improving industrial activity. Stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 2.3%, while China’s industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026. However, the upside remains somewhat capped by global concerns, including the economic impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions. On the supply side, rising mine output and the restart of operations such as Boliden’s Tara mine are expected to keep the global market in a slight surplus, according to Goldman Sachs. From a technical standpoint, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 2.73% to 1,814 lots. Zinc has immediate support at  Rs.316.8, with further downside toward  Rs.314.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at  Rs.321, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.322.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 314.2-322.6.

* Zinc gains as China's strong factory data, provided support to the prices.

* The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index for March was 50.4, up from 39.0 a month ago.

* China's central bank pledged to maintain appropriately loose monetary policy.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged slightly lower, slipping 0.04% to settle at  Rs.350.6, as profit booking set in after the recent rally driven by supply concerns. The market had earlier surged on fears of disruption following Iranian airstrikes on key Middle East producers, which raised the risk of a prolonged supply shock. Damage to facilities operated by Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain added to concerns, especially with partial shutdowns already underway. Supply-side pressures remain a key theme. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted shipments to major markets like the U.S. and Europe, while aluminium inventories in LME warehouses have dropped sharply over the past year. Physical premiums have surged to multi-year highs, reflecting tight availability. At the same time, potential export restrictions from Guinea and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to cloud the outlook. However, rising global inventories and concerns over slowing economic growth have started to weigh on prices. On the production front, global output saw a modest increase, while China continues to ramp up production despite weaker import demand. This mixed supply-demand picture is keeping prices range-bound for now. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest easing by 0.19% to 3,102 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.347.1, with a further downside toward  Rs.343.6. On the upside, resistance stands at  Rs.357, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.363.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 343.6-363.4.

* Aluminium pared gains on profit booking after prices allied amid the risk of a prolonged supply shock

* Alba said that it was shutting smelting lines representing 19% of its capacity.

* Stocks of aluminium in LME-approved warehouses have dropped more than 60% since last May to 418,675 tons.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged 4.91% to settle at  Rs.15,564, driven by tight arrivals and strong domestic as well as export demand. Supplies remain constrained as both farmers and stockists have reduced holdings, which is keeping the market well supported ahead of fresh crop arrivals. Weather disruptions in key producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have also impacted yields, adding to supply concerns. At the same time, the overall production outlook shows only moderate growth despite higher acreage. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated to rise around 4% year-on-year, while production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, unseasonal rains and disease issues have affected nearly 15% of the crop in some regions, limiting output gains. While fresh arrivals, especially from Erode, are expected to pick up in the coming weeks, increasing acreage and better planting conditions could cap further upside. On the demand side, export trends remain mixed. January shipments declined, but cumulative exports for the season are slightly higher, indicating stable medium-term demand. Lower imports also reflect reduced reliance on overseas supply. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 5% to 14,440 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.15,016, with further downside toward  Rs.14,470. On the upside, resistance is placed at  Rs.15,892, and a breakout could push prices toward  Rs.16,222.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14470-16222.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15232.5 Rupees gained by 2.57 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged slightly higher, gaining 0.5% to settle at  Rs.22,015, supported by weather-related concerns and lower production expectations. Rising temperatures in North Gujarat, as flagged by the India Meteorological Department, could impact seed development in late-sown crops, potentially reducing yields further. Overall production is estimated to decline by around 5% this year, with Gujarat seeing a sharp drop due to reduced acreage and weaker yields. However, the upside remains limited as new crop arrivals have started entering the market and are expected to pick up pace in the coming weeks. Rajasthan offers some balance, with production likely to rise due to better yields, partially offsetting losses from Gujarat. At the same time, export demand remains subdued. Both monthly and cumulative export figures have declined significantly, reflecting weak global buying interest and adequate domestic stocks. Additional pressure is coming from logistical challenges and geopolitical tensions affecting trade flows, particularly in key export destinations. While tight global supplies from countries like Syria and Turkey offer some support, weak overseas demand continues to cap gains. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 3.6% to 6,018 lots. Immediate support is seen at  Rs.21,800, with further downside toward  Rs.21,580. Resistance is placed at  Rs.22,170, and a move above this level could push prices toward  Rs.22,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21580-22320.

* Jeera gains as India Meteorological Department has issued alerts for rising temperatures in North Gujarat.

* Severe heatwaves could impact the seed weight of the late-sown Jeera crop, potentially reducing final yield numbers.

* Production is expected to decline by approximately 5 percent to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21842.8 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.